Time is flying; we are right around the corner from the start of the season. You already know who we are talking about. He is one of my favorite players of the 2022 season, Mr. Cool Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow is one of the most controversial players right now. I feel half of the community thinks he is a great pick, and the other half thinks he is an absolute bust at his price.
I am genuinely confused by the people who believe Burrow will bust. I don’t know if it’s the Super Bowl run, but Burrow is getting judged like a QB who has been in the NFL for years. He is being judged like there is no room for improvement. That 2021 is as good as this offense is going to be. I don’t believe this for a second. This guy had ten career NFL games before last season and then tore his ACL. Not only do I think Burrow has league-winning upside, I think he has an excellent chance to be the QB1.Â
The first reason why Burrow can improve is that this offense can improve. Some people may think, “Well, how can this offense improve? They were already 7th in points scored per game last year.” Here are some statistics from last year that make this feat quite incredible.
They were 13th in yards per game, 29th in pace of play, 26th in total plays, 15th in 3rd down conversion rate, and 23rd in red zone scoring % that resulted in a TD. They also gave up the 3rd most sacks in the NFL with a terrible offensive line. As shown in the picture below, they dramatically improved this, jumping into the top 10 projected offensive lines.
An improved offensive line will help in so many areas. On 3rd down, their average distance to go was around 8. It is tough to move the chains with that average. For some perspective, the Cowboys, Buccaneers, Bills, Chargers, and Chiefs all averaged around 7. This doesn’t seem like a big difference, but it is. Also, about a quarter of the Bengals’ 3rd downs were from 11+ yards out, which is much more than the other top offenses.
Besides shortening those 3rd down distances, an offensive line will improve his time to throw. I keep hearing that the deep balls aren’t going to happen as much next year. Something ingrained in my brain is how Ja’Marr Chase burned Jalen Ramsey on the last play in the Super Bowl. I wondered how many times Burrow needed a little more time or better protection to make a huge play. I don’t see why an improved offensive line won’t give him more opportunities for big plays instead of less.
Now that we covered what areas the Bengals can improve in let’s talk about some areas Burrow can improve in. More specifically, I want to focus on his ACL injury from his rookie year and how that impacted his 2021 season. At the beginning of the season, I saw Burrow getting back up to game speed and the Bengals easing him back in because of his ACL injury. These are Burrow’s stats in his first 11 games from weeks 1-12:
Totals – 2835 yards, 22 TDs, 12 Int
Per Game – 257.7 yards, 2 TDs, 1.1 Int
As you can see, he was putting up a decent amount of TDs but also making many mistakes. From week 13 to the end of playoffs in 9 games, these were Burrow’s stats:
Totals – 2881 yards, 17 TDs, 4 Int
Per Game – 320.1 yards, 1.88 TDs, .44 Int
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The positives are that he put up more yards in his last 9 games than in his first 11, and he cut his turnovers down dramatically. He also was the QB 1 over his final 5 games of the regular season. He was a little down on his TDs, but this was due to the formidable defenses and the offensive line letting everyone through like they just opened the doors during a black Friday sale. He was sacked a total of 40 times in these last 9 games. In 3 of those games, he was sacked 6+ times, which happened to be the games in which he did the worst.
Another stat that improved from the first half to the second half was his pass attempts. In the first 11 games, Burrow averaged 30.8 pass attempts compared to the 35.8 in the last 9 games. His season average was 32.5 pass attempts. I expect his pass attempts to be even higher than his last 9 games next year.
The reason I believe this is because of the improved offensive line. People forget that his sacks were plays that they wanted to pass on. If the Bengals can reduce their sacks to a total that resembles a top 10 offensive line like they are projected to be, that will add at least a pass attempt per game.Â
Not only did his ACL injury affect his splits but also his rushing. Burrow did more as a rusher in his rookie year in 10 games than he did in 2021 in 16 games. Now that he is over a year removed from his ACL injury, I expect him to be much more mobile next year. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets 300 yards and 3 TDs, especially with that improved offensive line.Â
The only fair way to analyze a player is to mention the negatives I’ve heard against Burrow and give my two cents on them. The first one is, “Burrow only had two good games; without those games, he was an average QB.” I hear this type of argument for a lot of players.
This is one of the worst arguments because if we removed every player’s best games, they would all be worse. In addition, people said his two best games were against bad defenses. This is also flawed because most players perform better against bad defenses. Are you saying Burrow isn’t going to run into any bad defenses next year? Let’s dive more into this.
If Burrow is an average QB, who can only perform against the Ravens and the Chiefs, that would mean other great QBs would have performed better against those teams, right? Here are some notable QBs who played against one or both of these teams: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott.
At least one of these QBs put up a better game, right? Wrong. Burrow had the two best games against the Ravens last year and the best game against the Chiefs out of every QB they played last season, not just these great ones. Not only that, the Chiefs weren’t even a bad defense by the time the Bengals ran into them. They were ranked 8th on PFF before week 17 and wrote this:
“How good Kansas City’s offense remains somewhat up in the air, but there’s little doubt that their defense is cooking at this stage. A game against Cincinnati’s high-flying offense this week may propel them even further up the rankings. Chris Jones aligned back inside is a wrecking ball, amassing 58 pressures this season.
Frank Clark has had his highest PFF pass-rushing grade (69.9) since 2018, and Melvin Ingram has accrued multiple pressures in every game since the team acquired him from Pittsburgh. The Chiefs allowed over 17 points just once in their past eight games, and that came against Justin Herbert and the Chargers.”
The last major argument is that Burrow was too efficient, and I even heard the term lucky thrown around. He had the best yards per attempt and completion % in the NFL. He also had a very high TD %. Even if these stats come down a little, they can all be countered by throwing the ball more and the offense taking a step forward. I fully expect this to happen. This was not luck.
Embed from Getty ImagesAs I said, Burrow was 1st in yards per attempt. He was also top 10 in intended air yards per attempt. He was 2nd in aggressiveness %, which Next Gen Stats defines as throws into tight coverage where the defender is within 1 yard or less of the receiver. He is making very difficult and long throws but also leading the NFL in completion %. Doing all this while having one of the worst offensive lines, and we want to call this luck. Maybe this isn’t luck. Call me crazy, but this might be talent.
At the end of the day, Burrow was phenomenal and had every right not to be. He was coming off an ACL and dealing with pressure consistently in the pocket in just his 2nd year. Burrow is going into 2022 with hands down the best receiving options in the NFL. He has an improved offensive line and is now fully recovered from the ACL injury. I don’t know how this says bust. Do not let these people convince you it’s hype from the Super Bowl run. This is a copycat league. You don’t have a QB like Burrow and not throw the ball more. Joe Burrow is going to set the NFL on fire next year. I am perfectly comfortable taking Burrow at his ADP or earlier. I think Burrow expects nothing less than an MVP and a Super Bowl ring by next year. I pray for the people who try to stand in his way. If I didn’t make myself clear, DRAFT JOE BURROW.
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