Jonathan Mingo
Mississippi – Wide Receiver – 6’1″ 226 lbs.
2022 Stats: 51 rec 869 yds 16.9 ypr 5 td
Pros
The 2023 class is loaded with smaller receivers, and Jonathan Mingo is not one of them. He combines his 6’1″ 226 lbs. size with good athleticism (9.93 RAS; 4.46 40-yard dash; speed and burst scores in the 96th and 91st percentile, respectively, per Player Profiler). The 4-star senior moves well north/south as well as east/west and shows some elusiveness that adds to his YAC potential.
Mingo has a large catch radius and good hands. He tracks the ball well and works well through both traffic and contact. Mingo is physical, has strong hands, and has the “my ball” mentality you want to see in a receiver prospect – especially one his size. He can be a useful possession receiver in the NFL, but his athleticism gives him more upside than that.
From an analytics perspective, there are some positives on Mingo. He checks all the size boxes and his 40 time, speed score, and RAS check the athleticism boxes. Per Player Profiler, Mingo’s breakout age is 20.4, which is only barely older than the 20 we like to see. He reached a 21.7% t/rr rate in 2022, which shows he was a trusted part of the offense. His career 14.0 aDOT and his 2022 marks of 7.3 yac/rec and 2.14 y/rr are also encouraging (PFF).
Cons
Mingo is a slightly older prospect; he will turn 22 a few days before the draft. That can hurt his draft stock. Mingo missed some time with an injury in 2021, but still, having only one year of high production and that season coming in his fourth year are blemishes on his profile.
As with a number of receiver prospects, Mingo’s route tree is somewhat limited. While he ran those routes well enough, he is not a standout route-running technician. Mingo will need to continue his progress in this regard at the NFL level.
From an analytics perspective, Mingo’s profile has some flaws. As noted, he would not check any age boxes, including the early declare box and the early breakout box/dominator rating of 20+% year 1 or 2 box. Many of his production numbers fall short of common thresholds, including a career average of 1.48 y/rr (PFF).
Summary
Jonathan Mingo surprised a lot of people with his testing from the NFL Combine and has the potential to contribute to an NFL offense. After three years of very little slot usage, his 2022 slot rate was 35%, so he has shown some versatility.
Mingo is currently projected as a 4th-round pick on NFL Mock Draft Database. He is still currently available in the 3rd or 4th round of dynasty rookie drafts, mock or otherwise. Mingo probably won’t be more than a flex option and depth piece on your fantasy roster, but he is a name to remember late in drafts, much like Andrei Iosivas.
Given team needs and Mingo’s expected draft capital, some landing spots that make sense are: the Cardinals (97th and 106th overall) — especially if they trade DeAndre Hopkins, Colts (107th, 140th, and 164th), Titans (149th), Jets (113th and 145th), Ravens (125th), Vikings (120th), Giants (90th, 101st, and 129th), Bills (92nd, 131st, and 139th), and Falcons (111th and 114th).
One landing spot that could be very good or very bad would be the Patriots (108th, 118th, and 136th), especially if they don’t re-sign Jakobi Meyers. After trading D.J. Moore, the Panthers (94th, 115th, and 133rd) could also be looking to draft a receiver.
Ideal Role: an NFL possession WR with upside for more, a team’s WR2/3
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2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Projection: 3rd or 4th round
Player Comp: Allan Lazard, Deebo Samuel, Hakeem Nicks, Bryan Edwards, Quincy Enunwa
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