If I told you that you could draft the better running back option in Green Bay, would you do it? Of course, you would. You’d be crazy not to. Aaron Jones’ current PPR ADP, according to Fantasypros, is RB 12, overall 21. Meanwhile, Aj Dillon’s PPR ADP is much lower; RB 25, overall 60. That is 39 overall picks later. Based on the current ADP, I believe Dillon will be the best running back option in Green Bay. Now let me explain why.
Don’t get me wrong; I believe Aaron Jones is a perfect back to have in fantasy. The problem I have with him is that he’s going within the second round in a situation where “Dillon and Aaron Jones could split the work 50/50 in the packer’s backfield in 2022,” per Matt Schneidman of The Athletic.
A piece like that tells me that the Packers want to get Dillon more involved. Last year’s splits between Dillon and Jones were 51.79% (Jones) and 42.65% (Dillon). Jones was on the field 9.14% more than Dillon was in 2021. I don’t hate the player; I hate the ADP. Jones is going in front of players like Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, and Even Mark Andrews, who all outscored Jones last year, and I believe they’ll be able to do it again this year.
Aaron Jones has put up some pretty good fantasy finishes over the years; Jones has been an RB 1 (inside the top 12) 3 out of the five years he’s been in the league. Jones had even put up Running back two numbers which just so happened to be when Davante Adams missed four games. And many believe that he may be able to do that again due to Adams being gone. Which could very well be accurate, but I highly doubt it. With last year being Jones’s worst fantasy finish of his career, it just so happened to come with the surge of A.J. Dillon. With Dillon seeing a good amount of work last year and Jones missing two games, it certainly affected Aaron Jones’s fantasy finish.
Some may say that Dillon’s surge came with the absence of Aaron Jones, which could be accurate, but I have some stats that might be able to quiet that argument. In the first three games of the 2021 season, Jones had 41 carries while Dillon had just 15. Dillon’s snap share in those first three games was 28/29/29% which shows he was barely being used at the beginning of the year. Jones missed games in week 11 and week 18. Many of Dillon’s best fantasy finishes came in weeks 10, 12, and 17. All when Jones played a significant amount of time. After the bye in week 13, Dillon started to see his red zone touches shoot up. In the last five games, Dillon saw a significant amount of red zone touches.
AJ Dillons touches in the red zone
| Inside the 20 | Inside the 10 | Inside the 5 |
| 16 | 8 | 5 |
Aaron jones touches in the red zone
| Inside the 20 | Inside the 10 | Inside the 5 |
| 3 | 2 | 1 |
As shown in the graphs, Dillon took over as the primary red zone back and finished with three rushing touchdowns within the last five games.
Now where Jones may separate himself from Dillon is with his receiving work. Jones has a career catch percentage of 73.5%, which is very good. In 2019 when Davante Adams missed some time, Jones had a career-high in targets, receptions, and yards, but in 2019 there was no Dillon to share the load. I believe that Jones is the better pass catcher in Green bay, but it doesn’t mean Dillon won’t see any receptions. With Davante Adams and MVS gone, 224 targets are missing now.
These targets have to go somewhere, and they usually go to the running back, so I see where the ADP is coming from. During last year Dillon saw 37 targets compared to Jones’s 65, which is a big difference, but I don’t see Jones getting the majority of that work. The Packers add a rookie wide receiver, Christian Watson, who will undoubtedly see some targets along with Allen Lazard’s potential to see more of a target share. Do I think Jones will see more targets? Yes, but I don’t see it becoming that big of an advantage in the end, primarily if Dillon and Jones do split the work 50/50.
With the current ADP, I’m willing to take the opportunity with Dillon over Jones. By the end of the year, Dillon will outperform his ADP and might even completely take over the backfield. With the end-of-year stats in 2021, my interruption is that the Packers showed a ton of respect for Dillon. I believe Dillon will receive some more receiving work, along with being the red zone back. Dillon’s overwhelming red zone touches at the end of the 2021 year and 37 targets should tell you that they have more in store for this young man.
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