March Madness: Who will be Dancing in New Orleans?

The most exciting four days in sports have passed us by. I know your bracket isn’t perfect but I still hope you were able to enjoy Saint Peter’s two huge wins, your champion losing… already… again, or the insanity that was UNC vs Baylor. We didn’t have any full-time buzzer-beaters, but we did have Texas winning the 1st half ML on this incredible 3/4 court heave. All that being said, we still have 15 games left in this magic tournament and I know there is still a little madness left in it.

Speaking of something magical, this article is going to be approached from more of a betting angle. If you missed my mega March Madness article last week, that was more for the purpose of how to succeed in your brackets. Well, I’m sorry to say but you have to live with the decisions you made there. Thankfully though, I am here to help you with some ideas using these NCAAM odds, using recent trends, to help you with the rest of the tournament. I will be including some of the pertinent information from that mega article, so if you have read that already (first off thank you I really appreciate everyone that did) you may see some common points. But it is all a means to an end, I promise. Settle in, grab a <insert favorite beverage here>, and let’s make some money.

The 2021 Data

Let’s keep it simple. What can last year’s Sweet 16 teams tell us about this years’ teams?

• Only four of the Sweet 16 teams in 2021 (Oral Roberts, Syracuse, Oregon St, and Creighton) were not in the top 20 of KenPoms adjusted Efficiency margin. Oregon St was the only one of those four teams to advance to the Elite 8.
• In the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 games in 2021, 8 of the 12 winners had more rebounds per game than their opponent.

Let’s go step by step, shall we?

• There are five teams this time around that are not in the top 20 of KenPom‘s adjusted efficiency margin. They are: Michigan, Providence, Miami, Iowa St, and Saint Peters.
  • Oregon St ended up beating an 8 seeded Loyola-Chicago last year to make the Elite 8. Michigan plays a 2 seed, Providence plays a 1 seed, Saint Peters plays a 3 seed.
  • Taking a look at KenPom ranks, Michigan is going up against 11th best Villanova, Providence is facing 5th best Kansas, and Saint Peter’s plays 12th rated Purdue.
  • We know at least one of these teams will make the Elite 8 because Miami plays Iowa St.
    • Two Interesting facts about Iowa St: They are one of only 3 teams in this year’s field to have a losing conference record. They are 12th in the nation in steals per possession.
    • Two Interesting facts about Miami: They are one of the worst teams in the nation in rebounding, but 6th best in the nation in turnovers and only have 7 total through their first 2 games.
• Normally when we get to the Sweet 16 there are a few cinderellas hanging around. But by the time it gets to weeding the field down to 4, it is the biggest boys standing. And I mean that truly… big boys. Not all teams have to be tall to get rebounds, but I have always noticed that rebounding is an effort thing. Some schools teach the passion of diving on loose balls and fighting for it in a crowd. That’s why I wasn’t surprised that rebounds played a big role in this set of games last year.
  • Here are the teams with more rebounds per game than their opponent based on region.
    • WEST REGION: Gonzaga>Arkansas, Duke>Texas Tech, Gonzaga>Duke
    • MIDWEST REGION: Kansas>Providence, Iowa St>Miami (both teams are in the 17th percentile or worse in the nation), Kansas>Iowa St
    • EAST REGION: North Carolina>UCLA, Purdue>Saint Peters, North Carolina>Purdue
    • SOUTH REGION: Arizona>Houston, Michigan>Villanova, Arizona>Michigan

What about the Final Four?!?! I know this is where the money is made (literally). Don’t worry, I got you.

• Each of the Final Four teams had an Assist/Turnover Ratio that was above a 1.2. This was in the top 50 of the nation last year (out of over 360 teams).
• Each of the Final Four teams averaged over 73 points per game in 2021. That isn’t always an easy number to get to especially in March, but knowing that these teams can create points is essential to moving on.
• Each of the Final Four teams were above a 115 offensive efficiency in KenPom. This rating means they would have been in the top 16 in offensive efficiency this year.
• At the same time, none of these Final Four teams were poor on the defensive end. The lowest any of the teams were ranked was 94.5.
• Each of the past 6 Champions have finished the season inside the top 20 in Assist/Turnover margin.

This is where the muddied picture should begin to clear.

• Teams that DO NOT have an Assist/Turnover Ratio over a 1.2: Saint Peters, Providence, Texas Tech, Iowa St, Arkansas.
• Teams that DO NOT average 73 points per game: Saint Peters, Providence, Iowa St
• Teams that DO NOT have at least a 115 offensive efficiency per KenPom: Michigan, Miami, North Carolina, Providence, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Iowa St, Saint Peters
• Teams that DO NOT have at least a 94.5 defensive efficiency per KenPom: North Carolina, Duke, Providence, Michigan, Purdue, Miami
• Teams remaining that fit this KenPom criteria (AKA Final Four Teams): Kansas, Gonzaga, Arizona, UCLA, Villanova, Houston
• Teams with a Assist/Turnover ratio in the top 20 (AKA Champions): Houston, Gonzaga, Arizona, UCLA

I also referenced a 2020 article written by Kyle Soppe of ESPN in my mega article. It showed the correlation between assists and Final Four teams as well. The results are very similar: Gonzaga (24.2%), Kansas (21.5%), Purdue (24.3%), Duke (24.1%), Houston (24.5%).

This is all really good information, but what kind of odds are we looking at?

There are some juicy Final Four futures lines that I like based on these trends.

You will notice that the KenPom data (from the last trend I mentioned above) has every region represented. However, the South region has Arizona, Houston, and Villanova. Thus leaving the other regions with only one team that KenPom would suggest can reach New Orleans. Putting some money on Gonzaga to make it there isn’t going to bring you the greatest odds at -175, nor will Kansas at -180. However, UCLA is a great value at +210. Purdue right now is the “favorite” to win that region per Vegas, but UCLA not only has the numbers this year, but they have the experience from last year to back up another Final Four run.

With 4 wins still to come to be crowned a champion, I wouldn’t feel super lucky about attempting to pick a champion from this crop of great teams, but Gonzaga has been the analytics, pro player, and just about everyone’s darling all year long. They are currently at +200 to win it all and I have a feeling that if they make it to the Final Four they will be able to clean up whoever makes it out of the East Region between UCLA, UNC, Saint Peters, and Purdue. The closer we get to the Final Four with Gonzaga still alive, the worse these odds will get. Food for thought.

Enough About the Future, It is Sweet to Live in the Present

Sorry for all the futures talk. Some of ya’ll may be more like me. Not willing to risk as much on something as fickle as March Madness. So let’s talk about what is right in front of us. The Sweet 16 begins Thursday with 4 games and follows it up with the same schedule on Friday.

First of all… I am just going to leave this here.

Look, I’m not saying… BUT I LOVE THIS SAINT PETERS TEAM. If I was able to, I would definitely throw $5 on their ML just for the hell of it. But this cover percentage is really interesting. The only odds available for them at the moment have them as 12.5 point underdogs. Purdue (#2 in offensive efficiency) can definitely score, but Saint Peter’s went point for point with Kentucky (#5 in offensive efficiency). I don’t think the Peacocks run will continue too much farther, a 15 seed has never made it to the Elite 8, but covering that big number feels doable.

What broke a lot of ties for me while going through my bracket this year was the fact that the teams that advance the farthest are often able to score points when they really need them. When they need a bucket they either have a stud offensive player or a collective team that shares the ball enough that anyone is a threat. I feel that way about a few teams in this field, but especially Duke who more than proved that to me against Michigan St (and in a few tight ACC games). So it is bewildering to me that they are UNDERDOGS against Texas Tech. Only +1 or +1.5 depending on the sportsbook, but you can get Duke at even money on the ML! I’m a big fan of Texas Tech and the way they play defense, but their offense can really struggle at times. They are ranked 46th in offensive efficiency per KenPom, but their defense (#1 in defensive efficiency) has kept them in games all year. I think it will be a close game either way, but Duke has Paolo Banchero, Wendell Moore, Jeremy Roach, plus AJ Griffin who is expected to play, and Mark Williams. They have 5 players currently expected to go in the 1st round of the NBA Draft! They are the 4th most efficient offense in the nation and score over 80 PPG. And you know they are going to give everything for Coach K in his final year.

Side note: I am a huge Wake Forest fan. We are playing in the NIT Quarterfinals against Texas A&M in College Station on Wednesday. Wake had only 2 losses at home all year (we beat Towson & VCU this past week in the NIT at home) but struggled on the road and in neutral venues for the most part. Texas A&M is favored by 2.5. The Aggies will cover in this game. Book it. But also you didn’t hear it from me if Wake wins. Go Deacs!

If you enjoyed this type of article focusing more on the sports betting side of things, let me know if you’d like to see more. During the NFL season, I am mostly focused on a weekly fantasy article rather than the betting sides of things (though when it was legal in FL for a short while I did dabble on player prop betting which I was pretty decent at) but if you all would enjoy something like this for the NFL just let me know on Twitter @KyleTheCommish or hop in Geoff’s mentions too.