After a pretty ugly night of baseball yesterday, we have an incredible set scheduled tonight. The main-slate on DraftKings consists of 14 games which include a lot of great pitching options. There are some sub-par pitchers throwing tonight, but for the most part, there is no one pitcher we need to attack our offense with. Even in Coors Field, Arizona will lean on Zack Greinke who can hold his own (look to bet the under on the 11 game total).
There are six starting pitchers, in my opinion, who sit in the top tier. All could easily score 30+ DraftKings points tonight.
Vegas has six teams projected to score over five runs this evening. I have a feeling the scores will be down across the board with some huge pitching performances.
Chris Sale (BOS): $11,100 vs. CWS
In a dream matchup, Chris Sale is lined up for a huge night. In reality, we can make a case for any of the top six, but Sale sticks out. Owning the highest strikeout rate of any pitcher tonight at 34.0%, the White Sox struggle against left-handed pitchers. They bost a 27.7% K rate to lefties and as we know, Chris Sale is no average lefty. They are hitting just .223 against southpaws on the season. This is looking like a strikeout ceiling game for the Red Sox ace. The way this season has played out so far, no one would be shocked if we see 14+ K’s.
Jacob deGrom (NYM): $10,600 vs. NYY
There is a showdown in New York tonight as the Mets host the Yankees. It will be a matchup of an elite ace against the MLB’s top offense. Jacob deGrom is having another great season and he continues to show that he is a matchup-proof pitcher. Although Greg Bird is a nice addition to the power-hitting Yankees, he adds more strikeouts to an already K heavy lineup. Considering they will lose the DH in this matchup, we will see added strikeouts to a team with a 25.5% K rate over the last two weeks.
J.A. Happ (TOR): $10,400 vs. BAL
The highest risk/reward pitcher among the top six is J.A. Happ. At this point, the Blue Jays are showcasing their top starter, leading up to the trade deadline. The price is tough to swallow and I have tried to get off wanting to play this guy, believe me. But the deeper I dig, the more he stands out as an elite option. On the season, Baltimore ranks bottom 10 in almost every category against left-handed pitchers. For the last two weeks, the O’s have generated the 28th most runs, when facing southpaws. In the last seven days, they are the fourth worst hitting team against lefties. It is no secret that the Orioles are struggling altogether at the moment. Even Jaime Garcia (a lefty) struck out six through six innings. J.A. Happ is having a fantastic season. While he isn’t the “sexiest” name out there tonight, he does own a 30% K rate in 2018 and has shown he can go deep into games. The veteran lives off of his command and has one of the most accurate fastballs in the majors. He pitches quick and pin-points where he wants to throw. The Orioles are an undisciplined, free-swinging team. I think Happ can get 30 DraftKings points tonight at far lower ownership than the other studs going tonight. It is tough to justify the cost. Especially with how close the top tier is priced, but he will differentiate your lineup drastically with similar upside to the other options.
Marco Gonzales (SEA): $7,100 @ TB
The Mariners pitching staff has been incredible lately, which has lead to the success of their 39-23 record. Marco Gonzales is not a pitcher who was on anyone’s radar early in the season but has put together three strong outings in a row. The Tampa Bay Rays have cooled off from their over-preforming start. There is one, maybe two bats in this lineup which could give Gonzales trouble, but at the low cost, he should still hit value. Tonight, I will be living in the high-tier. To pay up for bats, the Seattle starter could provide salary relief and not sink a lineup.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox will take on Dylan Covey at home, where they are a massive -288 favorite. Covey has pitched quite well this season, however, a lot of his stats are inflated and negative regression is due. Andrew Benintendi is one of the hottest hitters in the MLB right now and should be considered in all formats. With a 5.18 implied run total, Boston is one of the best teams to target this evening.
They are expensive, but the bottom half of the order is still in play at a discount. Doug Fister gives up a lot of hard contact in one of the better hitter-friendly ballparks.
The D-Backs are in Coors Filed where, as we know, is a hitters paradise. Paul Goldschmidt is finally turning his season around and is now among the hottest hitters in the league. At home, German Marquez has a wOBA which jumps up to .402, with just a .267 on the road.
John Ryan Murphy