There is a huge, 14-game slate scheduled this evening, with a ton of paths to take. With the lack of value hitting options, paying down for pitchers is seemingly the best route to take. We want to get a piece of these expensive hitters who are in fantastic spots on a night with a lot of terrible pitchers.
Zack Greinke (ARI): $10,100 vs. PHI
If you decide to pay up for that safe, high upside arm tonight, Max Scherzer is obviously never a bad option. I do not like the matchup against the Braves who have seen plenty of him over the last few years though. The Diamondbacks ace is my favorite in the top tier. The Phillies have the fifth highest K% since July 1st with a lot of free-swinging hitters in their lineup. Meanwhile, Greinke has been downright nasty, allowing just eight earned runs in his last eight starts. He owns the third lowest SIERA on the slate to go along with a 29.3% strikeout rate since July. He is slightly mispriced on DraftKings, where he has 40+ point upside.
Andrew Heaney (LAA): $8,800 vs. DET
The Detroit Tigers are one of the worst hitting team in the MLB and have been by a wide margin over the last week. This Detroit lineup has had issues hitting southpaws, owning the seventh lowest ISO and fifth lowest wOBA, since July. Although Heaney is no ace, or even much better than an average starter, he should be able to go deep into this game with little resistance. Nick Castellanos is literally the only bat to fear, who has just five hits in his last 10 games.
Chase Anderson (MIL): $7,800 vs. SD
Not a huge Chase Anderson fan but I am a fan of taking pitchers against the Padres. San Diego owns a 78 wRC+, .283 wOBA, 121 ISO, and 25.9% strikeout rate to right-handed pitchers this season. All categories rank either worst or second worst the MLB. Again, Anderson is not usually a starting pitcher who should be feared. There is also the concern on how early the Brewers like to use their studs out of the bullpen. However, in this matchup, he can provide GPP winning upside with the strikeout ability.
Pablo Lopez (MIA): $5,800 vs. STL
The best “bottom of the barrel” pitching option tonight looks to be Marlins starter, Pablo Lopez. Outside of Matt Carpenter, the Cardinals have not looked very good, failing to produce much offense, at all. Lopez has limited time in the majors, showing a lot of control and limiting damage. The strikeout rate is a little below average but at the cheap price, he can easily pay off value.
They were not the best stack last night against flyball pitcher, Martin Perez, but there is plenty to like tonight against Bartolo Colon. Tonight, the Mariners have the highest implied team total, set at 5.77. Colon has an awful .363 wOBA to LHH and .369 to RHH. There are a few value hitters in this lineup which make the stack my top of the night.
The tribe is getting hot at the right time. Often forgotten about in the American League, Cleveland has now won seven of their last 10. The offense exploded for 10 runs last night against Kyle Gibson and the bullpen. Now, the Twins will look to Adalberto Mejia. The southpaw will be in tough against the likes of Edwin Encarnacion who smashed his 25th home run of the season.
New York Yankees
The bottom half of the lineup did the damage last night against the White Sox who look absolutely defeated. Once again, the Yankees are in a great spot to produce some offense. Reynaldo Lopez will get the nod for the Sox who owns a .380 wOBA to righties this season. Lock in the power hitters in this one.
More of a mini-stack, I think the Reds can produce some runs tonight against Jason Vargas. The Mets starter has not been good this season, to righties or lefties. For the most part, this Reds team is very disciplined with power-hitting upside. The top five bats in this lineup are all in play as a very, low-owned stack.
Toronto Blue Jays
The last team I will mention for tonight as a stack are the Jays. This scrappy team has some pop in the lineup and will face Drew Pomeranz. The Red Sox starter has a 1.74 HR/9 and 5.21 BB/9. If the Jays hitters can stay patient and wait on pitches, they should be able to get on base often and drive the ball out of the small ballpark.