Welcome to Opening Day! It seems like an eternity from the end of the 2018 season, leading up to this moment. For DFS purposes, baseball is far and away my personal favorite. Those who put in the time and research, are often rewarded. Compared to other major sports, there is a lot more data to analyze.
This season, I will provide GPP lineup advice for FanDuel and DraftKings. I am not only looking to feed picks and plays but also share strategies for GPP’s. Unlike cash games, the importance of ownership percentage is vital. More so in MLB than any other sport. Keep in mind, the best hitters in all of baseball only record a hit, on average, one out of every three at-bats. In other words, Mike Trout will give us zero points, 66% when he steps up to the plate (approximately). How often do the top players of other sports fail? Patrick Mahomes? James Harden? So while Trout is certainly worth looking at any given slate, it is much easier to make a case for fading when he has a high probability of going hitless and not being able to give us the return on investment.
That all being said, let’s dive into Thursday’s set of games for our first MLB DFS main-slate of 2019. I will breakdown a few options at pitcher in different price tiers and then move into hitting options. For GPP’s, stacking is almost a must. I will highlight my favorite teams to focus on and then highlight players at each position for each slate, throughout the season.
DraftKings has decided to split the set of games into two different slates, keeping their “main-slate” to just nine games starting at 4:00 pm EST. Meanwhile, FanDuel has included all games.
Pitchers
Justin Verlander (HOU): $11,400 (FD) / $11,000 (DK) @ TB
With arguably the best fastball in the game, Justin Verlander has evolved into one of the very best hurlers in the game during his career. Owning a remarkable 34% strikeout rate, the Astros ace found himself in the Cy Young conversation in 2018, finishing just 15 votes behind Blake Snell. Assuming health remains a non-issue, Verlander has shown no sign of slowing down and should be in for another dominant season.
The matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays is a good one, for a strikeout pitcher like Verlander. While the Rays earned the third highest batting average in the MLB in 2018, they also struck out 22.4% of the time (15th).
While Verlander might come in as the highest owned pitcher, there is a case to be made for the veteran who should have a good chance to score the most fantasy points on Opening Day.
Jose Berrios (MIN): $8,900 (FD) / $9,000 (DK) vs. CLEÂ
Not knowing how the season will start out, in terms of ownership, I could see a situation where Jose Berrios comes in at low ownership, given the abundant arms available. Looking back at 2018, Berrios had an obvious breakout season. While there were struggles with his changeup, Berrios has a dominant fastball and curveball which lacks consistency but is as electric as any. The 11.2% SwStr rate helped lead to an incredible 25.4% K rate.
Facing the Indians is not usually a desirable matchup, however, Cleveland could be without their two top hitters (Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez) due to injury. Considering how potent the offense was last year, the Indians are a much more watered down lineup in 2019 after losing hitters like Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, and Michael Brantley.
Trevor Cahill (LAA): $7,500 (FD) / $6,300 (DK) @ OAKÂ
After having a solid season in 2018 for the Oakland A’s, Trevor Cahill benefited from the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. Owning a respectable 4.06 SIERA and 3.80 xFIP, the veteran will take the mound on opening day for his new team, against his old team. Cahill mixes four pitches a good portion of the time while throwing his fastball 41%. Although he will not blow hitters away with his velocity, Cahill relies a lot on getting outs with the groundball. At 53.4%, Cahill generates plenty of groundballs which get him out of jams.
The A’s have already played two regular season games and unfortunately have lost one of their best offensive hitters in Matt Olson. This will be a huge blow to the lineup as the most dangerous hitters will not see a lot of great pitches to hit. Trevor Cahill is a salary-saving option at the pitcher position who will likely get the win, with a few strikeouts, providing a high floor.
Hitting Stacks
LA AngelsÂ
Mike Trout and the Angels will travel to Oakland and face the A’s. Mike Fiers is set to start on opening day, which should lead to plenty of runs. Coming off a solid 2018 season, underlying stats suggest a major regression for 2019. Most noticeably, his groundball rate and xFIP. Fiers lost two points in his GB% while also owning an xFIP which came in 2.34 points higher than his ERA. The Angels have some powerful hitters which include the addition of Justin Bour. While Oakland is not a great hitters park, Los Angeles should chase Fiers early after putting up a lot of runs.
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Colorado RockiesÂ
With the addition of Daniel Murphy and a full season of David Dahl, the Rockies will be a force in the National League this season. Miami is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum and will open their season against a tough team. Jose Urena will take the mound for Miami on Thursday and try to navigate through this tough lineup. While Urena has electric stuff and throws a 96mph fastball, the lack of pitch combination will leave the young pitcher struggling, as he makes his way around the second and third time through the lineup.
Chicago Cubs
Mike Minor is set to start for the Texas Rangers as they host the Chicago Cubs in an inter-league series. Globe Life is one of the better hitting parks in the MLB and early in the season will be one of the few warmer games. Minor has had a rough career thus far, coming off shoulder surgery which sidelined the hurler for two seasons. Although there were positive indications such as an increase in pitch velocity and a decrease in xFIP, there are concerns which make stacking against him very intriguing. Minor is a very flyball-prone pitcher at 44.9% to go along with a 37.9% hard-hit rate, which generated a 1.49 HR/9 ratio. As we know, Chicago has a lot of home run hitters who will look to get off to a hot start in a great matchup.
Position-By-Position
Catcher:
Willson Contreras (CHC): $2,700 (FD) / $4,400 (DK)
Wellington Castillo (CWS): $2,400 (FD) / $3,500 (DK)
Chris Iannetta (COL): $2,300 (FD) / $3,000 (DK)
First Base:
Anthony Rizzo (CHC): $4,100 (FD) / $5,300 (DK)
Daniel Murphy (COL): $3,300 (FD) / $4,900 (DK)
Jose Abreu (CWS): $3,300 (FD) / $4,700 (DK)
Brandon Belt (SF): $3,000 (FD) / $3,800 (DK)
Justin Bour (LAA): $2,700 (FD) / $3,600 (DK)
Second Base:
Ben Zobrist (CHC): $2,900 (FD) / $3,800 (DK)
Yoan Moncada (CWS): $3,100 (FD) / $4,500 (DK)
Ryan McMahon (COL): $2,400 (FD) / $3,400 (DK)
Joe Panik (SFG): $2,300 (FD) / $3,300 (DK)
Short Stop:
Trevor Story (COL): $4,400 (FD) / $5,000 (DK)
Javier Baez (CHC): $3,900 (FD) / $4,800 (DK)
Andrelton Simmons (LAA): $2,900 (FD) / $3,500 (DK)
Tim Anderson (CWS): $2,900 (FD) / $4,400 (DK)
Third Base:
Nolan Arenado (COL): $4,600 (FD) / $5,500 (DK)
Kris Bryant (CHC): $3,800 (FD) / $5,400 (DK)
Evan Longoria (SFG): $2,800 (FD) / $3,700 (DK)
Yolmer Sanchez (CWS): $2,600 (FD) / $3,500 (DK)
Outfield:
Mike Trout (LAA): $4,800 (FD) / $5,600 (DK)
Charlie Blackmon (COL): $4,000 (FD) / $5,200 (DK)
David Dahl (COL): $3,200 (FD) / $4,700 (DK)
Kyle Schwarber (CHC): $3,000 (FD) / $4,500 (DK)
Ian Desmond (COL): $2,800 (FD) / $4,500 (DK)
Daniel Palka (CWS): $2,500 (FD) / $4,200 (DK)
Kole Calhoun (LAA): $2,600 (FD) / $3,700 (DK)
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