The NFL is entering the summer stretch and the beginning of other sports is at least 6 weeks away. So let’s start a mock draft series building up to the beginning of the 2020 NFL Season (fingers crossed). The first few of the series will focus on dynasty league and as we get closer to mini-camp, we will transition to re-draft leagues. We will kick-off the series with a 2 round rookie dynasty mock, superflex league. If you have ideas for other mocks, feel free to send me a message on twitter (@HodgesHotTakes).

Please note: if looking for a 1-QB league, simply shift the QB’s to the same spot, starting in Round 2 as they are not as highly coveted in those leagues.

Round 1

1.01– Joe Burrow, QB – Cincinnati Bengals

Superflex adds a unique nuance to rookie drafts because the QB’s go from an afterthought to the most valuable commodity. Depending on league size and roster construction, I fully expect a run on the blue chip QB’s early. With the first pick, don’t overthink it and take the Bengals #1 pick.

1.02– Tua Tagovailoa, QB – Miami Dolphins

Going back to the QB well at 1.02. I actually prefer Tua as a long term prospect to Burrow but the hip injury plus shortened off-season is enough of a concern where I will bump him to #2. However, if you land either of these guys, you should be doing cartwheels as you have both a short-term and long-term contributor to your dynasty team.

1.03– Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Kansas City Chiefs

CEH lands in the most envious of spots. You will see a lot of articles trying to profile the skill sets between various players. While I do like to think I have an eye for talent, in dynasty I have a simple mantra of prioritizing the players tied to elite offenses. Thanks to Mahomes, CEH is my RB1 in dynasty. I am not as high on his 2020 season outlook as I think he will be in a timeshare, but he is tied to the Chiefs for the next 5 years and it doesn’t get better than that.

1.04 – Jonathan Taylor, RB – Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor is my RB1 based on skill alone so he is a nice consolation for anyone wanting to draft an elite rookie runner. Indianapolis has a great offensive line and innovative offensive coach so JT is setup well. He will be sharing the rock in year 1 with Marlon Mack but MM is in his final year of his contract and will be looking to make a splash in the 2021 free agent market, thus Taylor offers sky high potential for several years.

1.05– Justin Herbert, QB – Los Angeles Chargers

This is where I get bolder than other mockers. This is a superflex league and there are only three QB prospects that offer both short term and long term potential. I do not get why many have Herbert not going till the end of first round of rookie mocks. He is the last opportunity an owner has at grabbing a viable QB, if you are in need and have the early draft capital, I wouldn’t argue with anyone grabbing him at 1.03. For this mock, I gladly take him at #5.

1.06– J.K. Dobbins, RB – Baltimore Ravens

The next two RB’s are in a separate tier than CEH and JT, but I would be happy to grab them in the middle portion of round 1. Swift has higher short term upside in my opinion but I will stick with my mantra and grab guys tethered to elite offenses. The idea that Dobbins will eventually be a lead back with Lamar Jackson, sign me up all day. He may only be an RB3 or RB4 contributor in 2020 but with Ingram getting long in the tooth, he could vault to RB1 in 2021.

1.07 – D’Andre Swift, RB – Detroit Lions

I wouldn’t fault anyone for having Swift higher. He was my #2 rated RB before the draft. Unfortunately, he ends up in a timeshare with another 2^nd round young RB. He is also tied to a decent offense but the clock is ticking on Stafford and the coaching staff. This team might look vastly different in 2021, and while any coaching staff will probably make Swift a focal point of a team, they could be a struggling offense for many years until they find their new QB.

1.08– CeeDee Lamb, WR – Dallas Cowboys

I am envious of any squad that is picking late in round 1 and gets their pick of these WR’s. This rookie class is deep! I have Lamb and Jeudy as my 1-2 punch in the WR class and won’t fault anyone for flopping them. Where Lamb sacrifices some short term potential, he was the highest WR prospect for me and he is tied to an offensive system setup to succeed for years. I am willing to risk a “down” 2020 from Ceedee to reap the benefits of him being an Alpha in Dallas for many years.

1.09– Jerry Jeudy – Denver Broncos

Jeudy has the superb opportunity as a rookie, operating as the #2 in the Bronco’s scheme. However, his fate is tied to the career trajectory of Drew Lock. I am not sold (yet) on Drew as a long term starter in the NFL. If Drew struggles, then Jeudy will struggle. For that reason, I won’t prioritize him over CeedDee.

1.10-Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

To be honest, I am not high on Mr. Vaughn. However, he lands in the 2^nd best short term production spot right out of the gate. That gives him a slight bump in ranking and he could be a n excellent addition for a team who needs a borderline RB 2/3 to get them over the hump. I temper expectations after a few years though as Brady will be gone and Vaughn has the makings of being a guy who produces for a few years then disappears from the league.

1.11– Justin Jefferson, WR – Minnesota Vikings

Justin was very impressive for LSU and he lands in a spot where he should slide immediately into as the Diggs replacement. He doesn’t have the same elite potential as CeeDee/Jeudy but he could easily have the best statistical rookie year. If you are getting him at the end of round 1 in PPR leagues, pop some champagne.

1.12– Cam Akers, RB – Los Angeles Rams

Cam Akers didn’t project well coming out of school. I see a lot of people pumped about his landing spot but I am not as bullish. Regardless of playing time, he is tied to a bad OL with an offense in cap hell that will only continue to regress unless Goff improves substantially. Add to the fact Henderson has an equal shot at getting lead back duties, Akers is not high on my want list. He squeaks into round 1 solely due to he is the last RB in this class to offer potential production in year 1. If I have this pick, I am trying to flip to an RB needy team.

Round 2

2.01– Jalen Reagor, WR – Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Reagor checks in as my #4 WR prospect and is a fine get at the top of round 2. Reagor has the potential to become the #1 WR target on this team as Alshon Jeffrey is reportedly causing friction in the locker room.

2.02– Henry Ruggs, WR – Las Vegas Raiders

The first WR taken in the draft falls to #5 in my mock. Some drafters have him even lower! I am hesitant due to sub optimal QB play from Carr/Mariota and plenty of mouths to feed on offense. Ruggs and his sub 4.30 speed could draw a lot of defensive attention and he might be a more valuable real life asset than box score hero. I think he will need time to develop if he is going to turn his speed into a Tyreke Hill-esque production level. Worth the risk in round #2.

2.03– Tee Higgins, WR – Cincinnati Bengals

Round 2 will be dominated by WR selections. After the top 5, I think the talent pool drops off a bit and it becomes more of a personal preference of who you want in these spots. I start off this WR run with Tee Higgins. He takes my priority because of his potential situation being tied to a productive QB in Joe Burrow. I am not as high on the QB’s paired with the other WR’s. I think many will have Higgins lower due to the depth at WR for the Bengals but I fully expect Green and Ross to be out in next year or so. He might have short term volatility but long term potential is best of this group.

2.04– Denzel Mims, WR – New York Jets

Next off the board for me is Denzel Mims. He has the potential to become the alpha pretty quickly in New York. The pause for me is the slow development of Darnold and the conservative play calling of Adam Gase. If things don’t mesh in year 2 of this coaching regime, this offense will be mediocre at best and limit the upside of Mims.

2.05– Michael Pittman, Jr., WR – Indianapolis Colts

A lot of plugged in drafters love Pittman in this spot. I am tempering expectations short term with all the mouths to feed on the offensive side of the ball. On top of that, Phillip Rivers will only be there 1-2 years and if they don’t have a viable replacement, this team has all the makings of a run first team. I like Pittman’s upside, but he has significant downside as well.

2.06– Brandon Aiyuk, WR – San Francisco 49ers

Aiyuk finds himself in a similar situation to Pittman. At best, he is short term viewed as the #3 pass catching option on a run first team. Even though he was drafted higher by the NFL, I have him under Pittman for the simple fact the skill players on SF are relatively young while Indianapolis has more old dogs, which will allow Pittman an easier path to becoming an alpha.

2.07– Laviska Shenault, WR – Jacksonville Jaguars

I am not high on Shenault but include him at #7 in the 2^nd round because of the potential for long term pairing with an elite QB. No, not Gardner Minschew. I expect the Jags to do everything to tank this year which might land them Trevor Lawrence next year. Waiting a year on Shenault to get paired with Lawrence is enticing enough for me to take this project in round 2.

2.08 – Zack Moss, RB – Buffalo Bills

That concludes the wave of WR’s, now comes a mini wave of RB’s who offer some long term potential. Zack Moss looked decent coming out of school and lands in a spot that isn’t great for long term production but he could immediately slide in as the 1b in this offense and put up better than Gore numbers. He won’t be a solid week in and week out contributor but could be a solid bench addition.

2.09– A.J. Dillon, RB – Green Bay Packers

Dillon was one of my least favorite RB prospects (of the top names) and he lands in a horrible spot for short term contribution. However, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are both slated for free agency after 2020 and I expect one to leave, with potential for both! If you are patient, Dillon might have a similar outlook to Moss in a year with upside to be the lead dog.

2.10– Chase Claypool – Pittsburgh Steelers

I trust the Steelers when it comes to evaluating WR talent. There are also rumblings Juju Smith-Schuster might not fit into the Steelers long term plans (don’t ask me why). Claypool is going to need some things to bounce right for him in the short and long term but he has potential to produce and makes for a nice late 2^nd round addition.

2.11– Antonio Gibson, RB – Washington Redskins

Gibson is a very intriguing prospect as he offers RB and WR upside. His path to immediate production is more at WR or gadget type player but this backfield doesn’t inspire confidence. He is one more Derrius Guice injury from being thrust into major playing time at the RB spot.

2.12– Darrynton Evans, RB – Tennessee Titans

Evans offers very little 2020 production upside but if the Titans and Henry cannot come to an agreement on a long term pact, he has potential to be the 2021 RB1 on a run first team. He is a valuable stash asset if your league has a “taxi squad.”

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