Welcome back to the Mock Draft Series. Now that we have done a rookie only mock for dynasty, lets slot those rookies into an entire mock for this part of the series, focusing on what rounds you can anticipate seeing these guys go off the board. If you are drafting in early summer, you are seeing teams feel the “rookie rush” which typically results in these guys being aggressively pursued in drafts. This is especially true in dynasty leagues where everyone seems to covet the 21-year-old “shiny new toy.” So while this mock projects “good value” for these rookies, bear in mind that if you want to get your guy, you might need to target them a round early.

For this mock, we will again do superflex (a 1 QB league will be mocked in part 3). These are based on PPR scoring but the draft order doesn’t fluctuate too much based on scoring. The roster composition is 1 QB slot, 2 RB’s, 2 WR’s, 1 TE, 1 Flex, and 1 Superflex with 10 bench spots. For a total of 18 rounds to be analyzed. As always, if you have ideas for other mocks, feel free to send me a message on twitter (@HodgesHotTakes).

Rounds 1-3

I will never endorse someone getting a rookie in round 1, even in dynasty, but you will see two rookies go around the 2-3 turn in most leagues. It will be the rookie runner Clyde Edwards-Helaire and shortly followed by Jonathan Taylor. I have both slotted in the top 12 of my RB rankings so you will be approaching them as potential RB1’s for your squad. They will be enticing for the teams that grab Mahomes or Jackson in the first round.

Rounds 4-6

After the first tier of RB’s, the next tier will go off the board around the round 4 and 5 turn. I think J.K. Dobbins will become viable late in round 4, with D’Andre Swift coming right after him, and then Cam Akers being the last domino from that tier. If you have a personal preference, keep this in mind and be ready to be the first to the pull the trigger because once one goes, you can expect the others to shortly follow.

The run on RB’s will also draw attention to the rookie WR class. I would guess somewhere between Swift and Akers, you will see the tier 1 of rookies WR’s (CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy) go off the board in round 5.

I have Joe Burrow as a top 12 QB in dynasty superflex and his draft round is very dependent on how many people prioritize grabbing two gun slingers early. A conservative guess is he is a fine get in round 6 but if you think this guy is going to be a franchise QB, I think you are going to have to pay the price and look for him around 3 or 4. That’s simply the price when it comes to dynasty rookies.

Rounds 7-9

I personally like Tua Tagovailoa more than Burrow and would be happy to wait and grab him in round 7 (if he makes it). I have Tua as a top 15 passer in dynasty but I don’t like the idea of grabbing him earlier than this because of the shortened offseason. I could see Miami letting Fitzmagic start a few games before passing the baton.

The last RB with immediate contribution potential will go around round 8 and that’s Ke’Shawn Vaughn. He at worst should see a timeshare but I am not high on him as a more than just an average runner so I wouldn’t go overboard just because he is tied to the Bucs. He is a fringe top 30 RB for me.

These rounds will be dominated by the other rookie WR’s taken in round 1. We have Jalon Reagor, Justin Jefferson, and Henry Ruggs. All are fine gets during round 8 and its matter of personal preference in all honesty as I have all three at top 36 WRs. I would personally try to wait as long as possible and grab the one that falls to me.

Rounds 10-12

Rounds 10-12 will produce the next tier of WR rookie talent. I don’t have a crystal ball to tell you which one, but I think there is a diamond in the rough in this group. I would be happy grabbing the likes of Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, or Denzel Mims in round 10. If I miss out on them, Brandon Aiyuk or Laviska Shenault should be available in round 12.

I have Justin Herbert floating around the #20 QB rank. He has risk in the short term as the rumors are he could sit for a while behind Tyrod. In Dynasty Superflex, he still offers immense upside and I would be willing to grab him in round 12 if opportunity presented itself.

 

Zack Moss lands in a spot where he will clearly be behind Devin Singletary, however, Frank Gore got plenty of touches last year and if Zack can be more productive than the ageless one, he has potential to offer FLEX appeal early in his career. I’m not going to be aggressive in my pursuit of Moss, but round 11 seems reasonable for a young contributor.

Rounds 13-15

These are the rounds where we can start investing in long term contributors to our fantasy squad. Let’s start at the quarterback position where Jordan Love rates as my top QB prospect outside the top 32. He shouldn’t see the field in year 1 (and maybe year 2) but the draft capital spent on him guarantees he gets a few seasons as the starting QB to show he is a long term solution for Green Bay. I do not mind stashing him if he falls into round 15.

Another Green Bay project, A.J. Dillon is another guy not expected to get much run in year one, but the two in front of him are free agents and if everything falls right for him, he could be the lead back in 2021. Antonio Gibson projects as a gadget guy early on but he is behind an aging Adrian Peterson and injury prone Derrius Guice. He could be thrust into a prominent role soon rather than later. I think both will be scooped up around the 14^th round.

Bryan Edwards and Chase Claypool both land in spots where there is opportunity for them in 2020 and even more potential in future years. They might not be league winners on your squad in the short term but I am giving them hard looks in rounds 14 or 15.

Rounds 16-18

We conclude the draft with the news that no rookie TE’s made my cut in these rounds. If we extended this out three more rounds, or made it a TE premium league, a few probably sneak into this range. As it stands, I don’t anticipate any of them being highly sought pieces of a championship puzzle.

Back to the rest, we round out the QB class with Jalen Hurts. You won’t be expecting any production first few years (absent an injury) but Eagles spent valuable draft capital on him so he could find himself in a Jimmy G scenario in a few years. It’s going to take patience, but if you can stash on a taxi squad, he is a valuable commodity in round 18.

Anthony McFarland is the final RB to crack my 18 round mock. It appears the Steelers will not be extending James Conner after this year which makes McFarland a speculative add for the future.

 

 

The final WR is K.J. Hamler. There are plenty of mouths to feed in the Bronco’s offense and taking a flyer on Hamler is endorsing Drew Lock as an emerging talent which is why he lasts until round 17. It might take a year or two to pay dividends but if this offense develops as the Bronco’s want, he could be part of an electric unit.

Tune in next week where I shift to a 1QB league and compare how it changes these values.

 

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