For the third consecutive week NASCAR DFS is back for the Cup Series race. The cars will hit the track at the high banks of Daytona International Speedway, however this time they will be back on the road course. The last time the series was on this particular part of the track was 12 days ago for the Busch Clash.
It was a wild race that saw Kyle Busch take the win following a last lap tangle between real-life friends Ryan Blaney and defending Champion, Chase Elliott.
For this weekend’s race, I have a feeling we can expect a lot of the same excitement! The name of the race is the O’Reilly Auto Parts 253.
The name of the game?
Winning on Draftkings.
Let’s take a look at who the best highly-priced plays are as well as which values we need to target before we set our lineups on Sunday.
Highly-Priced Drivers to Target in NASCAR DFS
Martin Truex Jr: #19 | Joe Gibbs Racing – Toyota | $11,000
Martin Truex Jr. is not necessarily dominate on road courses, but he has had plenty of success. On superspeedways, the argument could be made that he has struggled over the years.
In 28 starts while making both right and left turns, Truex has 14 top-10’s, 10 top-5’s, four career wins and has lead 248 laps. With this hybrid style of track I don’t expect that same kind of success. I’ll have some exposure, but it will be limited.
MTJ rolls off 19th on Sunday.
Chase Elliott: #9 | Hendrick Motorsports – Chevy | $10,700
It’s almost fitting that the next two drivers we are mentioning are from the second paragraph of this article. The reason is they’re both highly likely to be contenders to win this race.
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When it comes to road course racing, Elliott has quickly become the man to beat. In eight career starts, Chase has four top-10’s, three top-5’s and two wins. That’s a pretty good average.
He starts the race from the pole, so there won’t be bonus points available for moving up through the field, but there will be for leading laps.
Ryan Blaney: #12 | Team Penske – Ford | $10,400
We are going back to the Ryan Blaney well again this week. The guy is just too good at superspeedways and road courses. The track that the teams are racing on this Sunday is a combination of both.
In eight career starts on road courses, Blaney has four top-10’s and two top-5’s. The Team Penske driver is priced at $10.6k on Draftkings, and rightfully so. He’s going to be up front at some point in this race and rolls off from the 27th starting spot on Sunday, giving him the opportunity for position differential bonus points as well.
Other drivers to target: Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Alex Bowman
Mid-Range Priced Drivers for NASCAR DFS
Kurt Busch: #1 | Chip Ganassi Racing – Chevy | $8,600
Chip Ganassi Racing veteran driver Kurt Busch is a low-key wheel man on road courses, and has actually run fairly well on tracks over two miles over the course of his career too.
Of all active drivers, the elder Busch is tied with Kevin Harvick for the most career starts with 38. In those 38 starts, he has finished in the top-10 more than 50 percent of the time. His stat line reads out as follows: 20 top-10’s, 10 top-5’s, a win and has lead 263 laps.
Erik Jones: #43 | Richard Petty Motorsports – Chevy | $7,800
Erik Jones makes our article of good plays for one reason: he is good at both road course and superspeedways.
The sample size we are working with here is rather small, but hear me out. In just six career starts on road courses, Jones has finished in the top-10 five times and the top-5 twice. On the superspeedway of Daytona he has nine starts. He’s got three top-10’s, two top-5’s and a win.
That makes this race particularly interesting for the Richard Petty Motorsports driver. He was taken out of contention early in the Daytona 500, so his ownership may even be low. To make things even better is that he starts 37th on Sunday. The opportunity for bonus points is aplenty.
Ryan Newman: #6 | Roush-Fenway Racing – Ford | $7,300
If you’re a NASCAR fan, you’re aware of the horrific wreck at Daytona last year. Newman was involved in the “big one” early during the 500, but luckily was able to walk away from that one under his own power.
The road racing stats aren’t great with 36 career starts, resulting in 11 top-10’s and three top-5’s. In 39 starts on the Daytona oval, he has 12 top-10’s, six top-5’s and a win. If you combine his laps lead on the two, the total is 150.
His price is a bit high at $7.3k, but he starts the race 33rd, so the position differential bonus points are there, similar to Jones.
Other drivers to target: Matt DiBenedetto, Tyler Reddick, Chris Buescher
Value Drivers to target for NASCAR DFS
In my opinion, there are not a lot of value’s below the $7,000 price tag. The reasoning is because so many of them start the race near the front, making many of them dangerous plays.
Below is a list of drivers under $7k that start inside the top-20:
Michael McDowell – Starting: 2nd | $6,800
Austin Dillon – Starting: 3rd | $6,700
Ross Chastain – Starting: 9th | $6,500
Bubba Wallace – Starting: 10th | $6,300
Ricky Stenhouse Jr – Starting: 16th | $6,100
Justin Haley – Starting: 20th | $5,400
Ryan Preece – Starting: 6th | 5,300
Corey Lajoie – Starting: 7th | $5,000
After sifting through this I found only one driver that I am comfortable calling an actual good value pick.
Ty Dillon: #96 | Gaunt Brothers Racing – Toyota | $5,600
He has potential to move up as others fall back. There is reason to believe a top-20 is possible, depending on the fortunes of others. Worst case scenario is he doesn’t move forward, but does not get negative points for finishing 15 places behind where he started.
Long story, short — he is safer than others. I think.
(Statistics from racing-Refrence.com)
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