It’s going to be a big weekend for NASCAR and NASCAR DFS. That includes the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series. Both the tough trucks and the cars of the Cup Series will return to Bristol Motor Speedway, however it is going to have a bit of a different look.
Okay, a real different look.
The track is covered in dirt.
For the Cup Series, it marks the first time in 60 years that NASCAR’s highest level of competition will drive a race not run on concrete or asphalt. For the trucks, it doesn’t have the same unique novelty as they have been running on dirt for the past several seasons once-per-year, albeit at the world famous Eldora Speedway in Ohio. Saturday will be the first time during the modern era the series has run any race at Bristol with a dirt surface.
This race is something I have been looking forward to since the initial schedule was released, as my family has a history racing on clay. As someone who grew up at the local dirt tracks in Michigan, I have an idea of what to look for in track changes and racing lines. This race will be unlike anything you have ever seen, if you have never had the privilege of watching cars and/or trucks racing around sideways, flinging mud!
While we will have that slight advantage over some others that play NASCAR DFS, everyone involved with have a different distinct obstacle — setting your final rosters following the qualifying heat races on Saturday afternoon with a small window until the green flag flies for the feature!
Competition Caution
Per the usual, we will use this section of the article to discuss key areas that we will need to focus on when setting our lineups. For Saturday’s Truck Series race, that issue will be trying to determine some quality plays without the advantage of knowing the starting order for the A-main. Through most of last season, and onward through the beginning of this year, us as DFS players have had the privilege of knowing where each driver will start days before the race. The reason for this is because Covid-19 abruptly changed the way that we play NASCAR DFS and consume racing as a whole. When NASCAR returned to weekly racing in 2020, practices and qualifying were eliminated to help limit exposure of drivers, crew members, racing officials and others to the dangers of Coronavirus.
In a way, this almost takes me back to the way things were done prior to the pandemic. For starters, I have to write this article before qualifying is complete. Basically, I wont be able to advise you on who will make the most of position differential bonus points.
What we can do though, is dive into the history of some of these drivers on dirt and take a look at practice speeds through the field. Forewarning, I won’t be focused too much on who was at the top of the speed charts in Friday afternoon’s practice sessions, bur will shift my attention to their 10-lap averages. This is the best way to determine who is actually fast.
During truck, and particularly Cup series practice, it became very evident that a large emphasis will need to be placed on tire conservation. It’s highly likely that whoever does the best job of managing their rubber, could find themselves in victory lane for either series.
Racing Format via NASCAR.com:
- One aspect us dirt racers are used to, is qualifying for the feature via heats. Both the NASCAR Cup Series and the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series will have four qualifying races of 15 laps each. Only green-flag laps will count. No overtime rule will be in effect, but free-pass and wave-around procedures will remain. The fields and starting lineups for the heat races were determined via random draw.
- The main race starting lineup will be determined by a formula that weighs finishing position plus positions gained during each qualifying race. Drivers finishing first in their qualifying race earn 10 points, second place earns nine, third place earns eight and so forth. Additionally, drivers earn one passing point for each position gained in their qualifying race; there are no points deductions or “negative points” for drivers who lose positions in their qualifying race. Also, these points are merely used to calculate the starting lineup and do not count toward the championship standings.
- Ties in these combined points totals will be broken by current team owner points.
- Not every Truck entered will make the race.
Data pulled from driveraverages.com.
Truck Series Drivers to Target on Draftkings
Kyle Larson: #44 | $11,500
Listen, no matter how you look at it you’re probably going to have to play Kyle Larson in your lineups. Yes, he is the most expensive driver on Saturday afternoon. Also yes, he is the most talented and experienced on a clay racing surface. Last season, while serving an indefinite suspension from all NASCAR sanctioned series’, Larson was hitting dirt tracks across the country and winning a majority of those events too. He is likely to be our top-play on Sunday as well, but we’re sticking to trucks for now.
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For his heat race, Larson will start p.9 of 11 total trucks. He will make his way to the front, so he’ll earn plenty of qualifying points for the feature and will probably win this preliminary race also. It’s impossible to know where he will start in the A-main, but it’s not impossible to understand that he will be tough to beat.
Larson should be considered one of the best drivers of my generation when it comes to dirt racing. He will be a factor Saturday night and is the odds-on favorite to take the checkered flag in the race that really matters. If he does, there is a good chance there are a lot of bonus points made in fantasy scoring too.
Don’t kid yourself — put Larson in your lineup.
Chase Briscoe: #04 | $11,000
If for some reason you do feel yourself wanting to pivot off of Larson, (or perhaps you want to try squeezing both in your lineup) look no further than Chase Briscoe. It’s a bit higher of a risk to roster Briscoe in my opinion, but for GPP’s the ownership should be slightly lower.
On Friday afternoon, Briscoe never took the track for practice. There are a couple reasons we can speculate on this decision, but my best guess is simply that he is running for a very underfunded team in owner, Tony Roeper. Track time is usually a must for most drivers, but most drivers are not Briscoe on clay. In his previous Truck Series starts at Eldora, he’s miles ahead of the competition.
That is very impressive! It also has to be noted however, that Briscoe himself said he believes Bristol will be a different animal that Eldora Speedway.
Take that how you will, but I think Briscoe can win at Bristol. He will roll off his heat in p.11. He has to pass cars on his way up through the field, but he’s plenty capable.
Matt Crafton: #88 | $8,600
There are other drivers in the top tier worth considering, most notably Stewart Friesen and Shelton Creed. Both are former winners at Ohio’s world-famous dirt track. However, we are going to drop down a pricing tier to look at another former winner — Matt Crafton.
Besides some considerable salary relief, there are several reasons I am targeting Crafton on Saturday. The first reason is despite having little to no dirt racing experience prior to just a few years back, he has figured out how to drive when not on pavement. Once again, he is a former winner at Eldora. If history alone is not enough to convince you, then maybe the fact that he showed he had a strong truck in practice will help. He placed third and 21st on the speed charts on Friday, most importantly showing good long run speed as well.
Perhaps the biggest factor to consider though, is his ability to recognize the drastic tire wear teams were battling and his ability to conserve the rubber. It’s likely one of the reasons he was able to post a solid 10-lap average latter into his practice run.
Todd Gilliland: #38 | $7,200
Moving down the pricing tier a bit more, we hit on a guy I wasn’t necessarily projecting as a top target prior to Friday’s practice session. Following practice, I feel like I’ll have solid exposure come Saturday. In the first session, Gilliland posted the fastest 10-lap average with it coming from laps 14-23. In session two, he was sixth best in terms of 10-lap average, this time it coming from laps 16-25.
In terms of the heat races, Gilliland will start from the outside poll in heat four. If he can show that same speed and consistency, he is likely to transfer to the feature. Once there he has shown that the potential is there for a top-5 finish.
As with all of these drivers, you’ll want to double check and/or set your roster following the heat races. If Gilliland is able to transfer, I like him as a great mid-range price tag at $7.2k.
Carson Hocevar: #42 | $5,800
Carson Hocevar is a gamble as he too has little to no experience on dirt, but he did show speed in practice. In the second practice, he charted in at 20th overall for 10-lap averages with his stint coming between laps 30-39. It’s not blazing speed, but it shows the ability to conserve his equipment. In practice one he finished third overall in that same category, though his fastest set of laps were much earlier.
No matter how you look at it, he is a flier. With the way the pricing is staggered on Draftkings, it looks likely to be a “stars and stripes” type build will likely net you the most points. With that said, if you have to go cheap to fill in your roster, this Michigan native could be your best bet.
A little more icing on the cake — Hocevar is a teammate to Larson. Perhaps his knowledge can be shared to his young rookie teammate.
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