For the first time in 2021, NASCAR heads to the desert on March 13 when the Xfinity Series kicks off the weekend’s action at 5:30pm/ET with the 811 Call Before You Dig 200 presented by Arizona 811. It’s the second stop of the west coast cruise for NASCAR, and the first time either major series will put the rubber to the road on a track of this style. The layout and construction of Phoenix Raceway is one of the most unique on the circuit, especially since the track was reconfigured a few years ago, moving the start/finish line to what used to be turn number two. Because of it’s distinctive design, great racing is often offered up, which makes playing NASCAR DFS all the more fun too!
With an unconventional shape in comparison to other tracks on the NASCAR schedule, it’s important to do your research and really dig through the data to recognize which drivers to roster. Don’t worry though, we’re going to do the tedious work for you as we try to to find the top plays and best values for Saturday evening.
Competition Caution
If you’re playing NASCAR DFS, there is a good chance you are aware of the coemption caution NASCAR implicated when returning to racing in 2020. If you’re not, it is a caution flag that takes place a quarter of the way through the first segment of action that is used by teams to check tire wear and make adjustments due to a condensed weekend schedule consisting of no qualifying of practice thanks to Covid-19.
Moving forward, I’m going to use this section to address concerns and issues worth noting prior to setting our Draftkings roster. Saturday’s race is 200 miles or exactly 200 laps around the one-mile racecourse located just south-west of the Phoenix metropolitan area. That means, in terms of scoring, we are going to attempt to find drivers that we hope will lead a high percentage of laps, as well as driver’s earning bonus points via position differential from the green to the checkered flags.
In terms of pricing, it’s pretty interesting. If you didn’t know, driver pricing is determined via an algorithm that consists of a few things which includes the previous weeks ownership and previous performances at the track. Because of this, the driver salaries have done something NASCAR DFS players never like to see — they’ve virtually all increased. This just means we’re going to have to get extra creative throughout our rostering process.
Lets get to work!
Data compiled via driveraverages.com and racingreferance.info.
NASCAR DFS: Top-Tier Drivers
Justin Allgaier: #7 | JR Motorsports | Chevrolet | $12,000
Justin Allgaier is to the NASCAR Xfinity Series what Kevin Harvick is to the NASCAR Cup Series at Phoenix Raceway. He’s the man, so to speak. Once one of the promising youngsters in the sport, Allgaier now finds himself as one of the elder statesman of the series. Do not let that fool you though, he may be aging yearly like the rest of us, but his prowess at this race track has remained constant.
In his last ten races at Phoenix, Allgaier has run 2,004 total laps with 444 of those being from the lead. That’s a very admirable 22%. His finishes are as follows: two wins, six top-5’s and seven top-10’s during that span. He has one pole to his name while recording an average starting position of 5.8 and average finishing position of 7.8.
The point is, those are impressive stats. The fact of the matter is that Allgaier is the highest-priced driver for Saturday night’s event and understandably so. He rolls off the grid in the 12th position, meaning it wont take him long to get to the front. He’ll gain a few bonus points along the way, and even more once he likely gets out front.
He’s started off 2021 on a bit of a rough note, but the cream will rise to the top here. He should be chalk, but is a must-have in cash and a majority of GPP’s.
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Austin Cindric: #22 | Team Penske | Ford | $11,200
I’ll admit it. We are heading into our second month of action for NASCAR DFS, and I’ve recommended Austin Cindric in all of my previous articles this season. I guess he’s the defending series champion for a reason?
Through the first four races, Cindric has started from the front row in all of them. His worst finishing postion? A sixth at Homestead-Miami Speedway two weeks ago. He secured his first win of 2021 in the season opener at Daytona, while placing second on the road course the following week and fourth last week at Las Vegas.
He has earned a combined total of 59 fastest laps, 159 laps lead with an average fantasy points total of 56.3 per race. On Saturday, he take the green in his lowest starting position yet this year, third. Starting the race from the second row isn’t usual for Cindric, but him running up front will be.
In his six previous races at this track, he’s achieved one win, three top-5’s, and five top-10’s. He’s also lead a total of 97 laps and has an average finishing position of 6.7. My prediction is that three different drivers lead solid portions of this race, Cindric being one of them. His ownership seems hard to predict, but I anticipate it being somewhere around 35% for GPP’s.
Brandon Jones: #19 | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota | $9,500
Of the previously mentioned three drivers I expect to predominately lead laps on Saturday, Brandon Jones is another one of them. Over the course of the first four races of 2021, Jones has quietly put together a solid, consistent opening month of the schedule.
Three of his first four races have resulted in top-5’s, including a third place finish last week where he lead 28 laps as well. If you remove the outlier that was the race on Daytona’s superspeedway portion of the track, (caught up in an early wreck/finished 38th) then his average fantasy points per race total is 58.6.
Jones is also no stranger to success at Saturday’s sporting venue. In six previous starts at Phoenix, the Joe Gibbs Racing developmental driver has one win, two top-5’s and four top-10’s to his name with an average finishing position of 9.9. He will be starting the race from the outside of the front row, meaning he won’t be able to accumulate bonus points for passing any cards, but if he does lead laps and lay down fastest lap times, it’ll be a solid addition to a decent finishing position or possible win.
NASCAR DFS: Mid-Range Drivers
Brett Moffitt: #02 | Our Motorsports | Chevrolet | $8,400
Brett Moffitt is another driver that has come up numerous times in previous articles for both the Camping World Truck Series and Xfinity Series in recent weeks. Moffitt, a former NCWTS champion while driving for GMS Racing, is making a run at the Xfinity Championship in 2021 with Our Motorsports. Team owner Chris Our purchased the equipment from GMS and inked Moffitt to a deal to drive the car beginning on a part-time basis last season.
In my opinion the team is exceeding at least my expectations as they’ve shown speed and run up front several times already over the first 30 days of racing. With an average starting position of 7.25 the team was on a hot-streak heading into last weekend’s race at LVMS with three top-11’s in a row. Their first poor finish of 2021 was the end result of a long day on March 6th as Moffitt wound up placing 34th.
This weekend however, we should see a bounce back. With no Xfinity data to go off of for Moffitt, we’ll look at his details for the Truck Series at Phoenix. Spoilers, the information looks promising. It’s a small sample size we’re going off of here, but in three NCWTS starts in the desert, Moffitt has been to victory lane once and has finished in the top-10 all three times.
If you tie-in how Moffitt and his team started their season this year, with his average finishing position of 7th in trucks the hope is that another top ten is obtainable. He starts from the 20th position giving him potential for position differential bonuses and his ownership should he on the lower side of 30%. We will plan to hit some contrarian plays as we finish our lineups.
Jeb Burton: #10 | Kaulig Racing | Chevrolet | $7,700
Jeb Burton, son of former NASCAR driver Ward Burton, is the lesser known of the two Burton cousins. Harrison Burton, the aforementioned cousin, starts seventh and is someone I like at PR with a fourth place average through two career starts, but his price point is a bit too high for my liking. We will turn to Jeb here who has had a sound start to 2021 in his debut season running full-time for Kaulig Racing.
Everything is there to like. Through his first four races with is new team, it certainly appears that things have gelled well. He has three top-5’s and 4 top-10’s through the first four weekends. The scoring of bonus points however has been essentially non-existent due to all of his starts coming inside of the top-7, and a failure to lead laps or turn fastest laps on race day.
He will roll off from the sixth starting position, with an average finish of 6.0 so far this year. Previously, he’s only run one race at Phoenix Raceway. In that event he started 15th and finished the day in p17. He makes for one of my favorite plays in cash contests as well as GPP’s with hopes that his fifth consecutive top-10 is going to come.
Brandon Brown: #68 | Brandonbuilt Motorsports | Chevrolet | $7,100
Brandon Brown is slowly becoming one of the more consistent, young drivers in the Xfinity Series. It’s a story that you love to see unfold. Racing for his family owned operation, it has become evident that protecting his equipment is a priority and for the most part, he does just that on a weekly basis.
Through the first four races of the 2021 campaign Brown has recorded two top-10’s, a 35th at Homestead following a crash and an 11th last Saturday at Vegas. Starting from 11th this weekend, I feel another top-15 is a realistic goal. Through his four career starts at the triangular track, he has an average starting position of 15.8 with an average finish of 14.8. He is more of a cash game target in my opinion, but I’ll also have some exposure in GPP lines.
Value Drivers
Gray Gaulding: #52 | Means Motorsports | Chevrolet | $6,900
The finishing resluts of Means Motorsports driver Gray Gaulding have been pretty underwhelming for NASCAR DFS owners so far this season. As someone who has rostered him several times this year, I will be the first to admit that I’ve walked away disappointed more than once. To make matters worse, his salary is back up to $6,700 for this week and he has a season best finishing position of just 21st back at the Daytona Road Course.
Perhaps this is the weekend where he cracks that top-20 though. For him to achieve that goal, he will need to advance 14 positions on the race track. Passing 14 cars equals bonus points for advancing, which should allow him to exceed his fantasy points average of 18.5 per race. The reason this outcome seems obtainable is due to his average finishing position of 22.7 in the desert.
Gaulding is unlikely to win you a tournament, but he’s actually a pretty decent cash play if you’re willing to fork over the $6.9k.
JJ Yeley: #17 | SS Green Light Racing | Chevrolet | $6,700
Im going to mention driver JJ Yeley in the same light that I mentioned Gaulding as they fall into almost the exact same category. Yeley, like Gaulding, is priced a little bit too high and barely squeezes into the values category. He also starting in the same row as GG, but on the inside from p.33. His average finishing position is similar too at 22.2.
The Phoenix native has raced just one race so far this season, starting 39th and driving up through the field to finish 13th. If he can have similar results at his home track, he will make for a good play that could be lower owned than most for GPPs.
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