What’s up, everyone? After two back to back nights of what I thought were horrible slates, we get a good one tonight. We have a nice sized ten game slate, and even though I normally like the 5-8 game range, this ten gamer actually looks good.
Before we jump into the breakdown, I just wanted to mention again the Spreadsheet that Gerson has put together. It consolidates all the “research” tools you need for DFS into one neat little package — and it’s live updating! We had a guy the other night play $43 in entry fees and pulled in over a grand by using the spreadsheet! You can check it out here: NBA DFS Spreadsheet.
Let’s get started…
NBA DFS Fanduel Lineup Advice and Analysis for 3/11/16
Game Winner My Game Winner will be my top play for the position.
Dunk A Dunk is a second or third tier player with the highest upside.
Half-Court Shot Otherwise known as a “punt play”.
Pass A player deemed a Pass is someone I’m avoiding — or “passing” on.
Point Guard
Game Winner Damian Lillard (POR) @ GS $9,600
I’m going to give you one number as to why you want to use Lillard tonight.
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68.5.
What’s that, you ask? That is what Lillard averages in two games against the Warriors this year — that is his AVERAGE!
Dunk Ish Smith (PHI) vs BKN $6,700
The Nets are third worst against the point guard on the year, and in three of their last four have allowed 40 or more fanduel points to the opposing point guard, and those names aren’t Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul. How about Ricky Rubio (42), Emmanuel Mudiay (45) and D’Angelo Russell (49). Smith is a great play tonight and could add to that list of 40-plus.
Half-Court Shot Isaiah Canaan (PHI) vs BKN $3,900
The Nets are just that bad against both guard positions that Canaan could easily hit five times value (20), something he has done the last two games. His minutes have been consistent enough for him to produce some decent numbers.
Pass Derrick Rose (CHI) vs MIA $7,000
Tough matchup with the Heat and, well, he is Derrick Rose.
Shooting Guard
Game Winner James Harden (HOU) @ BOS $11,000
At $11,000, I may not play Harden in a ton of lineups, but he has far and away the best chance of all the shooting guards to go over 50 fanduel points, and that, by default, makes him my Game Winner.
Dunk Dwyane Wade (MIA) @ CHI $7,600
Wade loves playing the Bulls in his hometown of Chicago, and with no Jimmy Butler, he should have his way with a bad Bulls defense. His last game in Chicago earlier in the year he had 45 fanduel points, that is a reasonable expectation for him tonight.
Half-Court Shot Tony Allen (MEM) vs NO $4,500
There isn’t a ton of value I like at the shooting guard tonight, but Allen has some great upside at $4,500. He gets a good matchup with the Pelicans and should have no trouble hitting his value, but exceeding value is what you really hope for here.
Pass
None, unless Jimmy Butler plays, I’ll be passing on him
Small Forward
Game Winner Kevin Durant (OKC) vs MIN $10,900
Do you the know the last time Durant had less than 50 fanduel points? How about February, 24th! That’s seven straight games over 50! Timberwolves are dead last allowing fanduel points to the small forward. In fact, they are five points per game worse than second place on this list. To put that in perspective, to get to a 5 point differential from the second worst you have to go all the way to 15th! Love me some KD tonight!
Dunk Robert Covington (PHI) vs BKN $6,200
His price is reaching the point where he will no longer be worth paying for him, but at $6,200 and a great matchup with the Nets he is still viable tonight.
Half-Court Shot Evan Fournier (ORL) @ SAC $5,500
Fournier is once again back on the DFS map and priced under 6k. He seems to be fully recovered from the injury suffered at the end of February and is back to getting high 30’s in minutes played. The Kings are a high paced team and without Nikola Vucevic and DeMarcus Cousins, I’m expecting both teams to go small and play fast.
Pass None
Power Forward
Game Winner Anthony Davis (NO) @ MEM $10,300
I dread putting here, every time I do he throws up a dud or gets injured, but he seems to love playing the Grizzlies.In the three games against the Grizzlies this year, he hasn’t had less than 40 fanduel points — with one game going over 55.
Dunk Tobias Harris (DET) @ CHA $6,00
Since being traded to the Pistons, I challenge you to find a more consistent player in the NBA. In fact, he is so consistent I’m going to predict his exact stat line for tonight, 16pts/7rebs/5asst or 32 fanduel points. Book it.
Half-Court Shot Derrick Williams (NY) @ LAC $3,700
This one is a bit of a shot in the dark. Rumor had it that Carmelo Anthony might take a rest day in his last game, but he did not. A road game in L.A. might be a good place for him to take his rest game, leaving Williams with more court time and some nice upside at power forward.
Pass JaMychal Green (MEM) vs NO $6,400
Holy price change! He was $4,600 two days ago and now he is $6,400! That’s one of the biggest one game price jumps I think I’ve ever seen. At that price he is no longer a value, and when the Grizzlies play all their players he may not even get the minutes he needs to produce.
Center
Game Winner Hassan Whiteside (MIA) @ CHI $8,700
Four of his last five games he has gone over 40 fanduel points, including a game verse this same Chicago team in which he scored 51. Despite that good production, his price is only $300 more than it was in that last Bulls game. Sounds like a steal.
Dunk Marcin Gortat (WAS) @ UTA $7,000
He has been a little hit or miss lately, but he put up 47 fanduel points against the Jazz less than a month ago. This one will be in Utah, so that could affect him somewhat, but I still like his upside at $7,000.
Half-Court Shot Jason Smith (ORL) @ SAC $3,500
Nikola Vucevic has already been ruled out. Easy Peezy.
Half-Court Shot 2 Kosta Koufos (SAC) vs ORL $3,500
Boogie Cousins has been suspended. Koufos should see an uptick in minutes, and should easily hit value.
Pass
Is it a cop-out if I put DeMarcus Cousins here? Kidding. There is no top-tier center I’m passing on, they all have great matchups.
The 6th Man (other plays I like)
- PG Rajon Rondo $8,200
- PG Goran Dragic $6,600
- SG Klay Thompson $7,000
- PF Nerlens Noel $6,300 (only if Jahill Okafor is out)
- Pretty much every center $8,100 and above
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