***Update, Wall and Pierce may not play. I like Irving and Knight at PG. a cheap option is Udrih if Conely doesn’t play. At small forward not much to choose from besides Jeff Green. Super cheap option is Damjan Rudez.
This is getting depressing. I seem to be jinxed lately with my picks, so today I’m going to do something different. I can’t, in good conscience, put out a lineup today. I’m still going to play a lineup, I’m just not going to put it in my blog today.
Instead, I’m going to go position by position and give one or two players I like, and one or two players I don’t. I need to come up with a cool name for this. Studs and Duds is too easy and over used. Hot and Not is another over used title. If you have any ideas for a good title, leave it in comments. For today I’ll just call it, Like and Dislike.
I’m NOT going to simply state the obvious. Saying I “Like” Lebron or I “Dislike” Austin Rivers is too easy. My “Likes” will be guys that might be flying under the radar, or guys who will given a bigger opportunity ie a backup taking over for an injured starter. My “Dislikes” will be guys that may have a high ownership percentage but I think will not play as well due to matchup, etc.
Point Guard Likes
- George Hill – There isn’t much to choose from in the way of “under the radar” point guards tonight, but Hill is as close as you can get to one. Hill is on a minutes limit, which seems to be about 20 minutes, since that’s exactly what he has the last 2 games. In those 20 minutes he has been very effective. Getting 18FDP in his first game and 32FDP in his last outing. I think he could get you anywhere between 25-30 versus a very weak Toronto defense, even with limited minutes.
Point Guard Dislikes
- Derrick Rose- Golden State is a tough matchup for Derrick Rose, and even though I’ve been touting him of late, he still hasn’t returned to elite status. Maybe he never will. Rose is still usable in a good matchup, but this is NOT a good matchup. Avoid him.
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Rajon Rondo- Coming off a huge game versus the Pelicans, Rondo may be on a lot of rosters expecting a similar type night. The Grizzlies are not the Pelicans. The Grizzlies are one of the better defenses in the league, and Rondo still hasn’t quite found his niche on the Dallas team. Point and case, he scored 11FDP versus the Griz on the 19th.
Shooting Guard Likes
-OJ Mayo – He has been on a bit of a hot streak lately, and his minutes off the bench have gradually increased because of it. The Heat aren’t exactly the great defensive team they were last year. They lost a big part of their team this year to free agency, can’t remember his name at the moment.
- KCP – Please don’t make me spell out his name. KCP should benefit from the absence of Jennings. He is going to get a ton of minutes, and will be relied upon heavily for offense. Cleveland is playing better lately, and there is a chance Lebron is on KCP for some of this game, but I’m still expecting 28-35 FDP from him.
Shooting Guard Dislikes
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- Klay Thompson- Say what?? How can I put one of the hottest players on the Dislike list. Easy, Jimmy Butler will be guarding him for much of this game. Now, I don’t necessarily expect Klay to have a bad game, but at his 8k+ salary, I don’t think you’ll get your return investment. He still may get 30-35FDP, but if you’re spending the money, he should give you more. Avoid him.
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Jimmy Butler- I’m going to stay in the same game for my other dislike. Butler, as with Klay, will be OK here, but not as good as you would like at the 8K+ range. He is going to expend a lot of his energy guarding Klay, which will hurt his offensive game. Again, he may get 25-30 FDP, but you should expect more from a player with that salary.
Small Forward Likes
- Paul Pierce- Paul has been playing good lately. Even having a good game in game 2 of a back to back in Denver. Now he gets the Kobe-less Lakers team, and possibly the Swaggy P-less Laker team. I can’t believe I just said Swaggy P. The Truth(a much better nickname) should easily get 25-30+ versus the Lakers, barring a blow out, which is possible.
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Jeff Green- Green has been a bit up and down since joining the Grizzlies, but I’m expecting an “up” game from him tonight. The Grizzlies in general have been playing well lately, and I expect Green to benefit from it versus a below average Dallas defense. Good value here at $5,300.
Small Forward Dislikes
- Draymond Green- Green had a fairly good game his last outing, but overall he hasn’t been returning his value for awhile. He only has one 40+ point game in his last 10 games, and 2 of those ten games he had 12 and 18. Couple that with a bad matchup against Chicago and it’s all the reason you need to avoid him.
Power Forward Likes
- Nene Hilario- His game against the Nuggets wasn’t a great game, but overall he has been playing well of late. He gets the weak Lakers front court tonight, and should easily dominate. There is the blowout potential, but is think the value is still there.
Power Forward Dislikes
- Zach Randolph- I know I know, he has been super consistent, why would he make the dislike list. First, I will put a disclaimer here, I think Randolph has a good real life NBA game, just not a 40+ point performance you would expect against the Mavericks.
So on to the reasons I don’t like him. One, this is his first back to back in his last 10 days, I’m worried he might be a little fatigued and secondly, I’m not sure if he’ll get as many minutes as he is used to.
Dirk is not a good matchup for him, and if they put Randolph on Dirk, and Randolph has to come out to guard him, that means less rebounding opportunities.
Ok, I’m reaching a little here, Zeebo may still get 40-45, I just don’t see a lot of other options to put on my dislike list.
Center Likes
- Timofey Mosgov- There isn’t a whole lot to like in the way of “under the radar” centers tonight. The closest thing to a value play tonight would be Mosgov. Over his last 4 games, he only has one true bad game, and that was versus OKC, a team in which his size hinders him, since OKC plays a lot of small ball. I think tonight you can expect 25-30 minutes and a low end double double with a block or two. At $5,100 you would take that production 10 times out of 10.
Center Dislikes
- Andre Drummond- I’m going to stay in the same game for my dislike. Drummond hasn’t been good lately, having single digit rebounds in his last 2 games, while scoring 10 and 14 points. Not the kind of production you’d expect from a guy with a $8400 price tag.
That sums it up for my first “Like/Dislike”(definitely need a better name) column for today. Hopefully I break out of my slump and I can start feeling comfortable giving my lineup again.
As always, thank you for checking in, please feel free to comment. Post your own lineup and ask for advice on it. Anything at all, I do my best to respond.
Follow me on Twitter @geofflambert77
Good Luck!
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