Let’s jump right into it. 13 games on the slate for tonight. There will be plenty of diverse lineups out there tonight. I’m sticking strictly with 50/50 tonight.
I’ll start by giving you a little insight into my strategy for 50/50 games. The way I see it, there are 2 types of lineups; either they are a studs and duds lineup, or an overall value lineup.
We’ll start by talking about a studs and duds lineup. First, I think it’s a poorly named strategy. There is no amount of “studs” that could aptly make up for 2 or more duds. So the term “dud” really refers to inexpensive players, that for some reason are expected to out perform their cost of ownership. In this type of lineup, these are the hardest to predict, and thusly the difference between winning and losing. Now, if you were to hit on a few “duds” and your studs preform to at least their averages, and one or two studs out perform their cost of ownership, then you’ll be looking a some very high scores. This strategy is typically one you would use in a large tournament. Higher risk equals higher reward.
The other strategy is the overall value lineup, and the one I’ll be employing tonight in my 50/50 games. Typically you have only one player that can be truly called a stud. Sometimes you may not even have one, as is the case with tonight’s lineup. But what you do have is consistent, low floor, type of players. They may never get you 60fdp, but rarely will they only get you 8. The trick is to get the right balance of players, ones with good match ups, and hope at least two or three out perform their CO(cost of ownership).
I set my benchmark at 270. Get over 270 and there is a good chance you’ll win in a 50/50 format, get under 270 and more often then not, you’ll miss the cut line. So with simple math with 9 players, that’s an average of 30 points per player. The chances they all go over 30 is slim, but if you get at least 2 and preferably 3 to exceed 30, that should make up for the ones that don’t. So on to the picks:
– Starting a the PG spot, Teague has been on a tear lately, have scored 35 or more FDP over his last 8 games except for 2. The 2 he didn’t, he sat out one for rest and the other he got 31. In addition, Toronto is a great matchup as they are bottom 3rd in defense but top 3 in offense, so points will be scored in this game. With Williams, obviously I’m not expecting the 60+ outing he had last game, but reasonable to assume 30-40 is possible in a plus matchup.
– At SG with the Evans pick, I’m not expecting Holiday to play. Evans in his absence played the point guard and got 43FDP. Evans is a guy who needs the ball in hands a lot to be effective, and running the point in place of Holiday puts the ball in his hands. And then the fact they are playing Philly helps too. Ginobili should benefit from Belinelli being ruled out. As always with the Spurs, be sure to check your lineup in case they decide to rest him.
– Green put up a rare dud last night, but that’s an anomaly. He put up 40FDP on OKC the last time he played them, and OKC is coming off a back to back. Wiggins is on a tear, and no reason to see him slowing down. At his price you have to start him.
– At PF I went with Faried and Mirotic. Faried is Mr. Double Double himself, and still at a fair price after his slow start to the season. Mirotic is a rookie that’s going to get a great opportunity to shine with Noah out for awhile. Gibson will pick up some of the slack, but Mirotic has proven he can score in limited minutes, giving him more could only help.
– Finally with C I went with Len. Over his last five games he nearly averaging a double double along with a shade under 3 blocks a game. At $5200 he is close to a must start.
**update, just got word that both Holiday and Anthony Davis are out for the Pelicans, making my pick of Evans a must start!
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As always. Tell me what you think of my picks. Feel free to comment. I try to respond to them all. Good Luck!
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