It’s safe to say the handicappers and analysts did not predict a Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat NBA Final, including myself. Not only did they make it to the finals, but they also dominated the East in doing so.
The element of surprise has been blown. Teams now understand the presence Butler can bring when he has full control of the reins much like his Chicago Bulls days. Butler is officially back as one of the best shooting guards in the league on both sides of the ball. Butler averaged 19.9 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 6.0 APG on a 45.5 shooting percentage.
The element of surprise has also been blown on young sharpshooting guard Tyler Herro. His play in the playoffs was terrific and came up with several clutch shots down the playoff stretch. Expect his play to elevate even further as he learns to take better shots. Herro finished last season on 13.5 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 2.2 APG on 40% shooting from deep.
The other young player to make a difference during the NBA Final run was small forward Duncan Robinson. Coming off the bench, he averaged 13.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 1.4 APG. Expect his play to elevate as he gets more minutes even as he continues to come off the bench.
The Heat also return veteran point guard Goran Dragic who tragically suffered an injury during the finals. The Heat certainly missed him against the Lakers. As Dragic ages, his injuries appear to be more apparent. Another injury will have an impact on how many wins they get and affect their playoff seeding, increasing their probability of a first-round exit.
Also returning with a breakout season is power forward Bam Adebayo. During the regular season, he averaged a double-double with 15.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG, and 5.1 APG. 5.1 APG is a fairly hefty amount of assists for a big man. His dominance on the defensive end and boards are invaluable to the Heat. However, in order to compete in the new-look Eastern Conference, Bam will need to prove his scoring by a few PPG.
The Heat made a lot of noise in the playoffs but was dead silent in the arms race this offseason. They did not acquire any free agents that can make a difference. Management must have full confidence that their roster can return to the NBA Finals with no new pieces.
The Heat will need to be bet on a game-by-game basis including many variables. One such variable is whether or not Tyler Herro is hot or cold from deep. Another is whether or not they are streaking and the talent of the upcoming game. Homework will be needed every time you want to wager on the Heat.
The Heat making the finals on back to back years is highly unlikely, especially after not making any moves in the offseason to acquire more talent.
I predict the Heat will finish 47-35 in the regular season and slot into a 4-6 seed in the Eastern Conference. They most likely get bounced in the second round.
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