Yes, this is a series about new offensive coordinators (of which the NFC South has all new ones), and we will get to Zac Robinson, another limb from the Sean McVay tree! But what is Robinson without Kirk Cousins? The duo of Robinson and Cousins is making the South rise in fantasy relevance, which is always good.
Zac Robinson, Offensive Coordinator
Robinson has spent his last five seasons with the Los Angeles Rams. He was pass game coordinator/quarterbacks coach for the last two years. This means he has the “Sean McVay” glow following him and has worked with Jared Goff in his last season with the Rams, Baker Mayfield in his brief stint with the Rams, and Matthew Stafford in his Super Bowl season with the Rams, all with varying degrees of success. As the passing game coordinator last year, rookie Puka Nacua amassed 1486 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 160 targets.
Now Robinson will march into Atlanta with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and Cousins at his disposal.
Since this is the first time Robinson will call plays, we don’t know what this offense will look like. We know that for Cousins, there should be some familiarity, as the Vikings coach, Kevin O’Connell, came from the same system as Robinson.
What We Think We Happen
The Falcons were one good coach and one competent quarterback away from making the playoffs last season. Arthur Smith is now gone, and Cousins has entered the building. The odds are looking in Atlanta’s favor.
Since this is the first time Robinson will call plays, there is only supposition on his actions. We know he is coming from the “McVay system,” having been in Los Angeles with the Rams for the last five seasons.
What We Expect to See
- Running back Bijan Robinson’s targets and receptions to decrease, and his carries to increase. Last season, Rams’ running back Kyren Williams missed five games and still had 51% of the Rams’ carries. Robinson had 41% of the Falcons carries.
Robinson had 86 targets last season (tied for the second most). Williams had 48.
- See three wide receiver sets with the wide receivers getting plenty of targets. Last season, the Rams led the league in targeting the wide receivers (398).
The three target leaders were rookie sensation Puka Nacua with 160, Cooper Kupp received 95, and Tutu Atwell had 67.
The Falcons’ wide receivers were last with 209 targets. Drake London led the wide receiving room with 110 targets. Mack Hollins had 30, and Van Jefferson had 28.
- Tight end Kyle Pitts is the question mark. Last season, he had 90 targets, surpassing the Rams’ Tyler Higbee by 20.
Jonnu Smith’s 70 targets are no longer in Atlanta. Smith’s exit hopefully leaves space for Pitts to reach the level of dominance that has been expected.
Enter Kirk Cousins
All the speculation rests on the hope that Cousins has fully recovered from his Achilles injury. Cousins will be 36 in August. He injured his Achilles in Week 8 of last season. All reports indicate he will be ready for Week 1.
It has not hurt his dance moves.
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But seriously, if Cousins is back to pre-injury Cousins, it is good for fantasy in the regular season. Before the injury, Cousins was at a record pace. He had thrown for 2331 yards with 18 touchdowns.
He will be playing behind a good offensive line. Pro Football Network has the Falcons’ offensive line ranked fourth best in the league. A solid offensive line will greatly help a 36-year-old pocket quarterback returning from an injury. Cousins now has a legitimate run threat a great offensive line, and he is a historically good passing quarterback.
From 2019-2022, Cousins has had three out of those four seasons passing for at least 4000 yards. He has thrown 26, 35, 33, and 29 touchdowns.
Last year, his catchable pass rate was 82.3%, which was third-best in the league. By comparison, Desmond Ridder’s catchable pass rate last season was 71.4%, 42nd in the league.
London (per @SalVetriDFS) London has averaged 113 targets per season, but 25% of the targets have been deemed not catchable.
It is clear if Cousins is healthy. And if Robinson calls a system remotely close to what they ran in Los Angeles, Cousins, London, Pitt, and B. Robinson get a fantasy boost.
Where are you drafting Kyle Pitts for this fantasy redraft season?
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