It is Week6, and in addition to navigating through the injuries and bad play, now we have the bye week(s). The following teams are on bye this week: Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, and the Tennessee Titans.
Now, we have to predict which player will show up and who will be our fantasy savior in Week 5. It seems simple enough, look at the matchups, see past performances ( I mean, we have four solid weeks of data), and Shazam, the fantasy savior, will reveal himself. If only. I mean, Jalen Hurts went from second to 15 and back to third, a roller coaster of emotions riding along with his fantasy output. Of course, some of it had to do with matchups (Washington, Jacksonville, and Arizona, respectively), but how in the hell do you explain Taysom Hill?
We can, however, get close. But remember, we are dealing with human beings mostly; some far exceed that mere definition. So, let’s get to it.
Special thanks to: playerprofiler.com, footballdatabase.com, and fantasypros.com
Top 4 Fantasy Quarterbacks Week 5
- Josh Allen, 36.36 Fantasy Points (Fifth Week 4)
- Patrick Mahomes, 30.48 Fantasy Points ((Sixth Week 4)
- Jalen Hurts, 24.66 Fantasy Points (15th Week 4)
- Geno Smith, 24.02 Fantasy Points (Second Week 4)
QUARTERBACKS
There are times when the improbable is probable, and we must do what we least expect. That is the story of quarterbacks in fantasy football through five weeks.
Suppose you were that person who drafted Allen, Hurts, Jackson, or Mahomes. If you were that one person who drafted Geno Smith…Wow…just Wow, and congrats. Good on you.
MUST START
Geno Smith v Arizona Cardinals, 50 o/u, Cardinals -3
Get over yourself. This game has the second-highest predictive total for the week! I KNOW!! (DFS ALERT DFS ALERT…the quarterback I am not talking about)!
Smith, though, is currently QB7. He has the highest completion percentage (75.2%), averaging 8.3 ypa, and has +39.1 EPA.
He will now play the Cardinals, allowing an average of 22 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.
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We are all collectively waiting for the shoe to drop on Smith because this seems improbable, right? I mean, Smith is QB7, and Russell Wilson is QB15 (which looks much worse). In other news, Jamie Foxx was denied entry into Cardi B’s birthday party. Improbable. The universe is playing its own game…just go with it.
SHOULD START
Jimmy Garoppolo @ Atlanta Falcons, 44.5 o/u, 49ers -5.5
Continuing on the path we have set for ourselves, Garoppolo is a start for a quarterback this week, and it isn’t necessarily because of the four-team bye week.
Last week Garoppolo attempted 30 passes and completed 18 for 253 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He finished as QB9 with 18.02 fantasy points.
I hear it was against the Carolina Panthers, who are giving up the 14th most fantasy points per game.
But this week, he plays the Falcons, who are giving up the 11th most fantasy points per game (22) to the quarterback position.
Plus, his Subway commercials are so much better than Russell Wilson’s. It may not mean much, but then again, it just might.
MEH
Kirk Cousins @ Miami Dolphins, 45.5 o/u, Vikings -3.5
The Dolphins are not only limping into the game on the offensive side (they will start Skylar Thompson under center) but could also be without cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Kader Kohou. Even when they were healthy and on the field, the Dolphins gave up the fifth-most passing yards (276.8) and the second-most fantasy points (22.5) to the quarterback position.
We know that you don’t play Cousins prime time, and you do play Cousins against giving defenses. Dolphins are a giver.
LONG SHOT
Matthew Stafford v Carolina Panthers, 41 o/u, Rams -10.5
The narrative here is that this is a “get right” game for Stafford and the Rams. I think that the Panthers might be getting a little bounce from the change in head coach and with PJ Walker under center.
But stats being what they may, Aaron Donald and Bobby Wagner will wreck Walker’s debut. At the same time, the Panthers’ defense that allows 218.4 passing yards per game (17th) and 21.2 passing completions per game (T11th) may just be what Stafford needs.
I’m not as confident as most, and the over-under does not give a reason for optimism, but a 10.5 line means someone on that offense should do something right.
Top 4 Fantasy Running Backs Week 5-PPR Points
- Leonard Fournette, 35.9 Fantasy Points (12th Week 4)
- Austin Ekeler, 35.9 Fantasy Points (First Week 4)
- Josh Jacobs, 30.3 Fantasy Points (Second Week 4)
- Breece Hall, 27.7 Fantasy Points (15th Week 4)
- Derrick Henry, 27.2 Fantasy Points (Eighth Week 4)
RUNNING BACKS
Before we get started, let’s just acknowledge that while these men are supremely talented, three of the four get a favorable nod because of injuries to their backfield partners.
And if you are one of those assholes who takes a victory lap over another’s injuries, you are an asshole ( oh, I said that already) and pretty gross.
And now we begin.
MUST START
Rhamondre Stevenson @ Cleveland Browns, 42.5 o/u, Browns-3
I’m not telling you anything you do not know. Last week Stevenson was the proud owner of 83.9% snap share, 25 carries, two targets, two receptions, 15 routes run, and 175 total yards.
This week the Patriots take on the Cleveland Browns, who are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the running back position (23.3) and have allowed six touchdowns by a running back in their last three games.
SHOULD START
Melvin Gordon @ Los Angeles Chargers, 42.5 o/u, Chargers -5
The revenge motif is a bit outplayed, so let’s stick with what we know. Last week Gordon played on 55% of the offensive snaps and had 37% of the backfield carries. In a game that was an abomination to the eyes, Gordon was something good. He had 15 carries and three targets for 101 total yards. But wait, the best is yet to come…Gordon had zero fumbles.
Now he gets to play the Chargers, who give up the most fantasy points to the running back position (24).
MEH
Kenneth Walker III v Arizona Cardinals, 50 o/u, Cardinals -3
Last week Walker was on the field for 30 offensive snaps. Dee Jay Dallas was on the field for 10 offensive snaps. Walker had eight carries, and Dallas had one.
Seahawks’ offense is surprisingly good. They are seventh in points per game (25.4) and 31st in plays per game (55.4). And while they only run the ball on 39.71% of their offensive plays with an average of 22 rushing attempts per game. Walker looks to dominate the carries. He has increased his snap share from 23.4% (Week2) to 56% in Week5. He increased his route run from four to nine in that same period while his carries doubled.
The Cardinals are mid-range in fantasy points allowed to the running back position giving up an average of 15.8 per game.
LONG SHOT
Ezekiel Elliott @ Philadelphia Eagles, 42 o/u, Eagles-6
In his last three games, Elliott has averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Last week he had 22 carries for 78 yards and zero targets. To make your fantasy wishes come true, Elliott has to score touchdowns. That does not bode well this week, as the Eagles defense has only allowed two running backs to run for a touchdown against them.
In five weeks, Elliott has one rushing touchdown.
Top 4 Fantasy Wide Receivers Week 5-PPR Points
- Gabe Davis, 32.1 Fantasy Points (87th Week 4)
- Justin Jefferson, 30.3 Fantasy Points (First Week 4)
- Tyler Lockett, 27.4 Fantasy Points (26th Week 4)
- Davante Adams, 24.4 Fantasy Points (12th Week 4)
- Cooper Kupp, 25.9 Fantasy Points (Third Week 4)
WIDE RECEIVERS
This week there is no Amon Ra-St Brown, DJ Chark, Brandin Cooks, or Davante Adams (who could be absent longer). Not too bad as bye weeks go but still, some quality will be missing, so plan accordingly.
MUST START
Mike Evans @ Pittsburgh Steelers, 44 o/u, Buccaneers -8
The Steelers allow the most fantasy points per game to the wide receivers’ position (48.8). Per Razzball Defensive Slot vs. Wide PPG Allowed, 16.9 points per game are going to the slot position, while a whopping 30.6 are going to the wide receiver.
When healthy and not taking up for his quarterback, Evans is always a start, so I am not telling you anything mind-blowing. Except the Steelers are giving up the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. But you probably realized that last week when Gabe Davis went off on them for 32.1 fantasy points.
More breaking news start Chris Godwin too.
SHOULD START
Alec Pierce v Jacksonville Jaguars, 42 o/u, Colts -2.5
The Colts were part of that mind-numbing travesty of a football game last week where neither team scored a touchdown. But Matt Ryan attempted 41 passes in that game. Pierce led the team in targets with nine, led the team in receptions with eight, and led the team in receiving yards with 81.
This game is a rematch of Week2 in which the Jaguars shellacked the Colts. In that game, neither Pierce nor Michael Pittman played.
Since Week3, Pierce has seen his snap share increase from 49.5% to 58.9%. His targets have gone from two to nine; last week, he ran the most routes this season (34).
The Jaguars are giving up an average of 23 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver and only 6.3 to the slot (thank you, Bobby LaMarco at Razzball). Pierce has taken 8.8% of his snaps in the slot compared to 16.3% of slot snaps by Pittman.
MEH
Gabe Davis @ Kansas City Chiefs, 54 o/u, Bills -3
There are so many conflicting emotions going on here. Davis was targeted six times last week. Yeah, I know he had three receptions for 171 yards and two touchdowns. One of those receptions was for 98 yards and a touchdown. He has the second-most air yards per target in the league (27), and his team passes the ball 65.05% of the time (5th most).
Not to mention that the Chiefs are giving up 38.7 fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position (7th most).
No doubt Davis has a high ceiling, but there is also Stefon Diggs and Isiah McKenzie and the possibility that this game flames out and goes way below its predictive outcome.
If you have Davis, there is no way you will sit him, just be cautious.
LONG SHOT
George Pickens v Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 44 o/u, Buccaneers -8
There is little doubt that the Steelers will play from behind this game. There is also the truth that Kenny Pickett will chuck it at will. Last week Pickett threw the ball 52 times in a game that was over before it started…well, really soon after it started.
Pickens was third in targets (8) but first in receiving yards (8) and receptions (6).
Picken’s ceiling is high because he makes incredible catches and has chemistry with this quarterback. It’s just on any given Sunday, Diontae Johnson (who led the team in targets last week with 13) could be the man. It would be nice if Pickens distinguished himself as WR1 in Pittsburgh. I just don’t know.
Top 4 Fantasy Tight Ends Week 5-PPR Points
- Taysom Hill, 34.1 Fantasy Points (16th Week 4)
- Travis Kelce, 33.5 Fantasy Points (Third Week 4)
- Mark Andrews, 22.9 Fantasy Points (41st Week 4)
- Dallas Goedert, 17.5 Fantasy Points (10th Week 4)
“Do you know what my favorite part about the game is? The opportunity to play.” Mike Singletary
It’s always about the opportunity. Get yours. Good luck play nice.
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