Hey, so what’s up? Are you coasting into your fantasy football playoffs or (like me) slightly tilting with every decision?
Finding the right matchups could be the difference between playoff or outside looking in (me tilting again). Either way, decision-making is paramount. Remember also. This advice is for those who aren’t rostering Patrick Mahomes, Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Justin Jefferson, and the rest of the studly crew.
So, let’s get this started and find your fantasy game-changer. Hint it could be Josh Jacobs once again.
Quarterbacks
Must Start- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions
Lawrence is beginning to show why he was the consensus #1 draft pick, and all it took was getting rid of Urban Meyer and putting in Doug Pederson (who knew coaching meant so much).
Lawrence has multiple touchdowns in two consecutive games and scored over 20 fantasy points in both of those games. Now he gets to play the Detroit Lions in Detroit.
The Lions are not only giving up the most fantasy points to the quarterback position (23.8), but at home, they are an offensive juggernaut.
This game has the highest implied total, 51.5, and is a pick them with the Jaguars favored by one.
Should Start- Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Oh, how I miss the Herbert of ye ole times. But wait, what is that? Last week he had three touchdowns and 274 yards, and 28.76 fantasy points! Ye gods!
And now, this week, he goes against the Las Vegas Raiders, who have given up the second most fantasy points to the quarterback position (20.95 per game), and Keenan Allen is back? Yes, please.
Meh-Jared Goff, Detroit Lions v Jacksonville Jaguars
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The Lions and Goff are different animals at home. They become this offensive juggernaut, and I am here for it. The over/under for this game is a slate high 51.5.
Goff is in the meh category because, well, he is Goff.
Long Shot-Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers
I love me some Tua, just not this week. Don’t you feel that Coach McDaniel will make this a run game?
Running Backs
Must Start-Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions
Here is the deal, Williams isn’t a man that will get you a zillion or even a hundred yards per game. But in a game where you know that points will be scored, Williams is your man.
Williams leads the NFL with 13 rushing touchdowns. That is the most touchdowns by a Lion since Barry Sanders (1991), and the Lions still have seven games left.
Count on Williams adding to this total this week.
Should Start-Brian Robinson, Washington
Meh-Dameon Pierce, Houston
I am not nearly as high on Pierce as others. He has had less than five fantasy points in his last two games. Last week he had five rushes for eight yards and three receptions for eight yards.
Yes, he has played some pretty good defenses (but face it, the Texans’ offense is bad).
The reason for optimism is the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are giving up the second most fantasy points per game to the running back position (29.2).
So, if Pierce can’t do it here, the rookie wall is real.
Long Shot-Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
Last week against the Los Angeles Rams (and their third-string quarterback), Pacheco scored his season-high 15.6 fantasy points. He had 22 rushing attempts for 69 yards and a touchdown. He was also only targeted one time. This game has an implied total of 53, with the Chiefs only a two-point favorite.
This game will be played on the arms of the two quarterbacks. Pacheco does not fit into that dynamic.
Wide Receivers
Must Start-Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
This is about believing in Mike White and the speed of Wilson. Last week Wilson was on the receiving end of a 29% target share and 35% air yard share (compared to a 24% target share and 31% air yard share with Zach Wilson).
It is also about the Vikings allowing 276.1 passing yards per game (32nd). In the last month, the Vikings’ defense has allowed the second most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (41.2).
Should Start-Christian Watson
It shouldn’t matter if it is Aaron Rodgers or Jordan Love. You saw what White and Wilson did to this secondary last week.
Watson has six touchdowns and 265 receiving yards in his last three games.
Meh-DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
First, check the status of Smith’s health. Second, disregard the “revenge game” narrative for AJ Brown. And third, remember that Smith runs 77.1% of his routes on the perimeter. The Tennessee Titans have given up the second-most fantasy points to perimeter wide receivers.
Long Shot-Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans
Same game, different results, the Eagles’ secondary has only surrendered three touchdowns to receivers since Week 5.
I wouldn’t trust anyone against the Eagles’ secondary.
“It gets late early out there,”—Yogi Berra
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