NFL 2022 Week 16 The Better Than A Start/Sit Article, Start/Sit Article

NFL 2022 Week 16 Better Than a Start Sit Article Start Sit Article

Howdy! Are you still in contention to dominate your fantasy football league? Congratulations.

Injuries sucked last week and will continue to do so. Your job, should you accept, is to remain vigilant and carry on. Also, remember that there are games Thursday night and Saturday. Sunday has three games and a Monday night game.

But first, let’s see who dominated last week and who was their opposition.

Top Fantasy Performers Week 15 (PPR Format) Thanks Fantasypros.com

Quarterback

1. Jalen Hurts @ Chicago Bears, 36.70 fantasy points
2. Josh Allen v Miami Dolphins, 35.86 fantasy points
3. Kirk Cousins v Indianapolis Colts, 34.40 fantasy points
4. Patrick Mahomes @ Houston Texans, 32.74 fantasy points
5. Trevor Lawrence v Dallas Cowboys, 27.82 fantasy points

Running Back

1. Jerick McKinnon @ Houston Texans, 34.20 fantasy points
2. Dalvin Cook v Indianapolis Colts, 27.0 fantasy points
3. Derrick Henry @ Los Angeles Chargers, 26.30 fantasy points
4. Christian McCaffrey @ Seattle Seahawks, 25.80 fantasy points
5. Rhamondre Stevenson @ Las Vegas Raiders, 24.80 fantasy points

Wide Receiver

1. Zay Jones v Dallas Cowboys, 34.90 fantasy points
2. KJ Osborn v Indianapolis Colts, 31.70 fantasy points
3. Justin Jefferson v Indianapolis Colts, 30.30 fantasy points
4. AJ Brown @ Chicago Bears, 27.10 fantasy points
5. Russell Gage v Cincinnati Bengals, 25.90 fantasy points

Tight End

1. George Kittle @ Seattle Seahawks, 25.30 fantasy points
2. Juwan Johnson v Atlanta Falcons, 22.70 fantasy points
3. Dawson Knox v Miami Dolphins, 21.80 fantasy points
4. Travis Kelce @ Houston Texans, 20.50 fantasy points
5. CJ Uzomah v Detroit Lions, 18.10 fantasy points

Hello Travis Kelce. So, as you can see, Seattle is still a sieve against the tight end position. And there should be much fantasy goodness in the Monday Night clash between the Chargers and the Colts.

But let’s get specific.

Quarterbacks

Of course, you are starting Mahomes, Allen, and Joe Burrow, but what about the others (excellent movie, by the way, The Others)? Let’s see if we can decipher the matchups you want to exploit.

Must Start

Tua Tagovailoa v Green Bay Packers, 49.5 o/u, Miami -4

And I am not just saying this because I need him to score many points for my fantasy season.

He was expected to bottom out in the snowstorm that was supposed to happen last week. That was a lot of supposed to and expected that didn’t happen. But you know what happened: Tagovailoa scored 21 fantasy points, and the snow didn’t happen until the game was in the late second half.

The moral of this story is that this week in the relatively warm confines of Miami, Tagovailoa will play the Green Bay Packers. In the last month, the Packers have allowed 18.5 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.

I’m betting that the Tagovailoa-Hill-Waddle collective reunites just in time for a Holiday fantasy miracle.

Should Start

Geno Smith @ Kansas City Chiefs, 49 o/u, Kansas City -10

I know Geno has been disappointed in the last month and some have said…nay, many have intimated that perhaps the “old Geno” has returned. Heed not those naysayers, my friends, For the Smith of new will return this week just in time and with a little help.

The Kansas City Chiefs allow the fourth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (20.2).

Smith will indeed be without Tyler Lockett this game, but that leaves more for DK Metcalf, Noah Fant, Kenneth Walker, and Marquise Goodwin.

This game has the highest implied point total, and the Chiefs are a 10-point favorite. So, Mr. Smith will need to be slinging it, which he has done all season, with a 71.4% completion percentage and 26 touchdowns compared to eight interceptions.

This should be a safe floor and a higher potential ceiling for Smith.

Meh

Tom Brady @ Arizona Cardinals, 40.5 o/u, Tampa Bay -7.5

Brady has thrown for six touchdowns and five interceptions in his last three games.

Now for the good news, the Arizona Cardinals aren’t very good this year either. They are allowing 22.1 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. And while the Brady to Mike Evans connection hasn’t been good or decent at all, you know it could suddenly hit.

There is no better time than playing against the Cardinals for that to happen. In addition to the 22.1 fantasy points per game allowed, the Cardinals are allowing 237.6 passing yards per game (23^rd), 35.6 passing attempts (27^th), and 24.9 passing completions per game (29^th).

I don’t want to say smash spot for Brady…but it’s a smash spot for Brady.

Long Shot

Gardner Minshew @ Dallas Cowboys, 47 o/u, Dallas -5

Are you ready for it? The Eagles have not ruled out Jalen Hurts for this game, but they only need one more win to get home-field advantage, so the inevitable question is, why would they play him against the Cowboys on a short week?

Enter Minshew.

Minshew is never a bad choice. Minshew started two games last season and scored 18 and 22 fantasy points (versus the Cowboys and the New York Jets). And remember, Trevor Lawrence, dusted the Cowboys’ defense to 34 fantasy points.

You could do worse.

Running Backs

So, let’s see who should start. Jonathan Taylor is out. Dameon Pierce is out.

Must Start

Zack Moss v Los Angeles Chargers, 46.5 o/u, Chargers -4.5

Taylor is out, and Nick Foles is in, so where do we go from here? We know that when Taylor suffered his untimely injury last week, Moss played in 67% of the offensive snaps with 24 carries and 81 yards.

This week the Colts play the Chargers, who allow the seventh-most fantasy points to the running back position (25.9).

There is the possibility that Deon Jackson will get the bulk of the work. There is also the possibility that the Colts bench Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger, fire Frank Reich hire an ESPN analyst/high school coach, reinstate Matt Ryan, lose a game by 35 points, or come from their bye week and win a game at halftime by 33 points and lose that same game…all I’m saying is anything is possible.

But it is more likely that the Colts rely on their run game this week, and Moss looked like the main man last week.

 Should Start

Jerick McKinnon v Seattle Seahawks, 49.5 o/u, Chiefs -10

This would be a must-start, but this offense is so potent that it could be any man at any time. It just so happens that the last two weeks have been McKinnon’s time. In the last two weeks, he has had 17 targets, 15 receptions, 182 yards, and three touchdowns.

Now he gets the Seahawks, who allow the second-most fantasy points to the running back position (23.8). They have also given up 670 receiving yards and three touchdowns to running backs.

There is a chance that Mecole Hardman will be back this week. And there is a chance that Travis Kelce feasts on the defense, giving up the most fantasy points to the tight end position (12.1).

Life is full of chances, and there are worse things to chase than points.

Meh

Najee Harris v Las Vegas Raiders, 38.5 o/u, Steelers -2.5

Did you know that Harris is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry? And that in addition to his “semi/sort of Lis Franc” injury, he also has an injured hip.

And now for the good news, the Raiders are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to the running back position (20.6). In their last nine games, the Raiders have allowed a running back to score a touchdown or run for 100 yards or more (sometimes in the same game).

While Harris isn’t racking up the rushing yards, he does have three touchdowns in his last four games (he didn’t get a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons). So, betting on his getting into the endzone again seems safe.

Long Shot

Alvin Kamara @ Cleveland Browns, 32.5 o/u, Browns -3

I just don’t know what to say about Kamar. I just can’t quit him. Last week he had 21 carries for 91 yards, two targets (yep, not a misprint), two receptions for 13 yards, and whopping 12.4 fantasy points.

I am beginning to think it isn’t all about Kamara’s play but the lack and maybe the offensive play calling. Oh, Sean Payton, where are you?

This week the Saints play the Browns in what is predicted to be high winds and rain. I don’t see Andy Dalton slinging the ball much here.

And it helps that the Browns have given up the fourth-most fantasy points to the running back position (27.4) and the fifth-most rushing yards.

Yep, I’m giving it another go.

Wide Receivers

Must Start

Christian Kirk @ New York Jets, 36.5 o/u,  Jets-2.5

This is a Thursday Night game, and I usually don’t do Thursday Night games, but this is an unusual slate, and I am an unusual type of gal.

The Jets’ secondary is formidable. If it has a weakness, it is with the slot, where Kirk makes his money.

Last week Amon-Ra St Brown collected 76 yards on seven receptions in the slot against the Jets.

Kirk is without a touchdown in four weeks, and the implied total does not bring confidence that this game will break that dry streak. He has reached over 90 receiving yards in two out of the three last games. But he has been targeted 10, seven, eight, and nine times in his last four games. And the emergence of Trevor Lawrence only raises Kirk’s ceiling.

Should Start

Mike Evans @ Arizona Cardinals, 40.5 o/u, Buccaneers -7.5

It may not seem like it, but Evans is trending up. Last week he was targeted ten times for 83 yards, which doubled his yardage from the week before with only one less target. He hasn’t had a touchdown since Week 4, but why dwell on the negative?

It is only a matter of time before the Brady-Evans corridor opens up and this week feels like it could be the one.

The Cardinals allowed the Brett Rypien to Jerry Jeudy connection to connect for 76 yards and the Rypien to Eric Tomlinson connection to connect for a touchdown.

This feels right, don’t you think?

Meh

Darius Slayton @ Minnesota Vikings, 48 o/u, Vikings -4

In his last five games, Slayton has averaged 6.8 targets per game. It is also of note that he lines up wide, and the Vikings have given up the most yards to receivers who lined up wide. The Vikings also give up the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers (40.6) and the third-most yards on passes of 10-plus air yards.

Slayton has a 17.3% target share and 29.1% air yards share. He is also averaging 12.6 aDOT.

Long Shot

Chris Moore @ Tennessee Titans, 36 o/u, Titans -3

I was all about Moore last week. I also sucked spectacularly in my start/sit on wide receivers (and running backs)…fuck two-thirds of my picks last week. Damn, I am sorry.

This week I am lukewarm about Moore. But we know he has the potential to blow up, as in his 11 targets, ten receptions, and 124 yards against the Cowboys two weeks ago. In Moore’s last two games, he is averaging ten targets. Last week he had nine targets with four receptions and 42 yards (BLAH).

Now the Texans play the Titans, who have given up the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position (41.7).

So, I’m warming up to Moore. Keep an eye out. He has shown up with an injury designation.

“All I wanted to be was a player” ~~ Franco Harris

And yet he ended up being so much more. One of the reasons I went to Penn State was because the legendary Franco Harris went there. When I started collecting Steelers’ jerseys, #32 was the first one I got.

I often wonder if all the great things being said about you now were said to you when you were alive. I hope so.

Thank you, Mr. Harris, for being so much more than a player. Rest in Power.

And you go now and tell someone how important they are to you…tell them now before it is all posthumously.

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