We are here. Here we are in Week9! How are you holding up? This week is another Bye-apocalypse. The teams on a bye are the Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers (but not Chase Claypool), and San Francisco 49ers (but not Jeff Wilson Jr.).
You are going to need to replace some studs. You will also need to replace some injured players—Ja’Marr Chase, Rashod Bateman, and maybe Cooper Kupp (thank you, Sean McVay).
But whatever, we got this. You are playing your studs and filling in for the injured and bye-week men the best you can. Let’s get this going. And start with a week8 recap of the top fantasy scorers in each position per fantasy pros.
QUARTERBACKS
- TUA TAGOVAILOA, MIAMI DOLPHINS, 29.18 FANTASY POINTS
- JALEN HURTS, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, 28.40 FANTASY POINTS
- KYLER MURRAY, ARIZONA CARDINALS, 26.64 FANTASY POINTS
- DAK PRESCOTT, DALLAS COWBOYS, 26.40 FANTASY POINTS
- JUSTIN FIELDS, CHICAGO BEARS, 26.04 FANTASY POINTS
QUARTERBACKS
MUST START
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears, Miami -4.5, 45.5 o/u
I’m not sure about you, but I like salty Tua. But that is not the reason he is a must-start. It could be because last week, he was 29-of-36 for 382 yards and three touchdowns. He also had 19 rushing yards. Or it could be because he is sixth in air yards per attempt (9.0) and second in deep ball completion percentage (63.6%), first in QBR (78.7), and third in EPA (+83.2). Or maybe it is just that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle give him an incredibly high ceiling.
I think, too, that he is going against the Chicago Bears this week, who just gave up 26.40 fantasy points to Dak Prescott and allowed 20+ fantasy points to three different quarterbacks since Week4.
SHOULD START
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals, Arizona -2.5, 49.5 o/u
I feel that it is disrespectful if I don’t include Smith on this list. He is currently QB7 in fantasy football. He is 13th in pass attempts (249) and sixth in deep ball attempts (33). He is averaging 7.7 yards per attempt (8th). Smith is first in accuracy rating (8.5), fourth in QBR (66.6), and eighth in EPA (55.1).
This week the Seahawks face the Arizona Cardinals. The game is tied for the highest implied points for the week, with Seattle expected to score three touchdowns (23.55 implied points).
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It also helps that Arizona is giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (20.0/game) and that DK Metcalf isn’t human.
MEH
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers @ Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles -3, 49.5 o/u
This isn’t quite the same Herbert that we are used to seeing. Probably because of the rib injury, or maybe it is the injury combined with the cavalcade of injuries to other players on the team.
Either way, Herbert will come into this game after his bye week. He is QB13. In his last two games, Herbert has averaged 5.7 yards per attempt and 4.2 yards per attempt. For the season, he has thrown 12 touchdowns and four interceptions.
This week he gets (she says hopefully) Keenan Allen back though he has lost Mike Williams for an undisclosed amount of time. It is also helpful that this matchup is against a Falcons team that is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (20.9/game).
LONG SHOT
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars v Las Vegas Raiders, Las Vegas -1.5, 46.5
I want to believe in Lawrence. Per playerprofiler.com, he has thrown 12 interceptable passes (14th), is sixth in danger plays (20), and his QBR is 21st (46.0). If he could quit making bonehead plays, it would be much easier.
Perhaps this is the week. The Raiders are floundering. How else do you explain coming off a bye week and giving up 229 passing yards and two touchdowns to a depleted New Orleans Saints team steered by a hobbled Andy Dalton?
It can be explained like this. The Raiders are currently giving up the most fantasy points to the quarterback position (22.9). Footballdatabase.com also has them giving up 15 passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns to the quarterback position far this season.
I refuse to believe a Doug Pederson-coached Lawrence will blow this opportunity.
RUNNING BACKS/PPR SCORING
- ALVIN KAMARA, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, 42.80 FANTASY POINTS
- CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, MULTI, 40.30 FANTASY POINTS
- DERRICK HENRY, TENNESSEE TITANS, 35.80 FANTASY POINTS
- TONY POLLARD, DALLAS COWBOYS, 33.70 FANTASY POINTS
- D’ONTA FOREMAN, CAROLINA PANTHERS, 31.80 FANTASY POINTS
RUNNING BACKS
MUST START
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions, Green Bay -3.5, 49.5 o/u
I have no idea what the Packers are doing. Do they? The Packers are 17th in rushing attempts per game, 24.9. However, in the last three weeks, they only attempted an average of 21 rushing attempts per game. They are also on a three-game losing streak, coincidence?
Jones had nine and eight rushing attempts in the two games before last week. Last week he rushed 20 times for 143 yards, and he had five targets (down from 10 the week before, but hey, we take what we can get).
Jones is averaging 5.9 yards per rushing attempt. He has 38 targets for the season, 30 receptions, 190 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns.
If only there were a way for Green Bay to get their most productive player more involved against a team he has historically owned.
SHOULD START
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons v Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles -3, 49.5 o/u
Am I the only one who finds it odd that a team that runs on average 33.5 times a game (3rd most) and has a run play on 57.63% of their offensive plays does not have a running back ranked in the top 10?
Ahh, the mysteries of life. What is not a mystery is that the Chargers are giving up the second-most fantasy points to the running back position (22.4)
Allgeier only sees a 44.7% opportunity share (which sucks) and a 48.3% snap share. But last week, he had 60% of snaps and converted his limited playing time into 87 yards and a touchdown.
I would not presume to know what Arthur Smith is going to do. Caleb Huntley is always lurking around and being productive, so I wouldn’t hate you for playing him (I could never hate you). Allgeier is more explosive and more involved in (the very limited) passing game.
But again, it is Arthur Smith’s beautiful mind controlling this, so a should start isn’t always a will start.
MEH
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears, Miami-4.5, 45.4 o/u
I’m not going to lie. Raheem (can I call you Raheem) let me down last week. Against the Lions!!!! But I am not going to hold a grudge.
Mostert has a 44% success rate on outside carries. He averages 5.3 yards per carry and has 322 yards and a touchdown on his outside runs. Why is this important, you ask? Because Tony Pollard shredded the Bears when he ran outside the tackles. By shredded, I mean 116 rushing yards and three touchdowns on runs outside the tackle.
So, yes, for this week, I am back, baby!
LONG SHOT
AJ Dillion, Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
It is sort of a cheat sheet to suggest Dillion and Jones, but it is against the Detroit Lions. And whatever the Packers are going through, the Lions are a little bit more of a “riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.”
It also helps that the Lions have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the running back position (27.4). That includes giving up 83 rushing yards to Tony Pollard and two rushing touchdowns to Ezekiel Elliott in Week7.
There isn’t any reason the Packers’ dynamic duo cannot replicate or surpass that feat.
WIDE RECEIVERS
- AJ BROWN, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES, 39.60 FANTASY POINTS
- DEANDRE HOPKINS, ARIZONA CARDINALS, 33.90 FANTASY POINTS
- TYREEK HILL, MIAMI DOLPHINS, 31.50 FANTASY POINTS
- JAYLEN WADDLE, MIAMI DOLPHINS, 30.60 FANTASY POINTS
- DJ MOORE, CAROLINA PANTHERS, 27.50 FANTASY POINTS
WIDE RECEIVERS
MUST START
Terry McLaurin, Washington v Minnesota Vikings, Minnesota -3, 44.5 o/u
Taylor Heinicke cannot quit McLaurin, and I love him for that. In the last two games with Heinicke, McLaurin has been targeted 16 times (eight each game) and has finished with 186 yards and a touchdown.
This week Washington plays the Vikings, who have given up the third-most fantasy points to outside wide receivers.
SHOULD START
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals v Carolina Panthers
Just put the Monday Night Massacre out of your head. It was Halloween after, all against Myles Garrett, so anything was possible.
This is the second game without Ja’Marr Chase. Last week, Boyd ended with five targets, three receptions, a touchdown, and 38 yards. Not the splash we were hoping for, but the touchdown was a nice addition.
Boyd’s floor is higher without Chase. This matchup against the Panthers is better for the wide receiver than the slot. The Panthers are averaging 37.9 fantasy points to the wide receiver position, but 22.0 on average is going to the wide, while 15.4 on average is going to the slot. It should be a slam for both Boyd and Tee Higgins.
MEH
Chris Olave v Baltimore Ravens, Baltimore -3, 48.5 o/u
Mere words cannot express how great Olave is. Last week was his second-worst fantasy performance for the year, and he still collected 10.2 fantasy points. It’s not a lot, but a double-digit fantasy performance equals a safe fantasy floor.
Olave is behind Tyreek Hill in air yards with 972. He leads receivers with at least 35 targets with 15.4 air yards per target. And now he gets a matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, who have given up 16 completions of 20+ air yards. They have also allowed 39.7 fantasy points per game to the receiver position.
Michael Thomas does not look to be returning anytime soon, and Jarvis Landry (if he returns) is not a threat to Olave’s production. Olave’s ceiling is higher with Jameis Winston under center, but he has been doing quite well with Andy Dalton.
This man is on fire.
LONG SHOT
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets v Buffalo Bills, Buffalo -12.5, 47o/u
This is a friendly reminder to those who want to chase points. Before last week, Wilson to Wilson’s connection was only good for seven fantasy points and no more than 45 yards in four weeks. Zach Wilson is not to be trusted (that includes your Mom), and the total implied points for the Jets is 11.
The Bills are just crazy good on both sides of the ball. A bad day for Wilson will equal a bad day for Wilson.
TIGHT ENDS
- TYLER CONKLIN, NEW YORK JETS, 25.90 FANTASY POINTS
- ISAIAH LIKELY, BALTIMORE RAVENS, 19.70 FANTASY POINTS
- KYLE PITTS, ATLANTA FALCONS, 19.0 FANTASY POINTS
- EVAN ENGRAM, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS, 15.5O FANTASY POINTS
- DALTON SCHULTZ, DALLAS COWBOYS, 13.40 FANTASY POINTS
“If you don’t vote, you lose the right to complain.” ~ George Carlin
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