NFL 2022 Week14 “Better Than a Start/Sit Article” Start/Sit Article

Yes, I need this win to get into the playoff time. It is playoff time! Or it is hell. Either way, It’s playoff time!

But just like NFL, they have deemed this week to be the perfect week to put six teams on their bye week. And it isn’t irrelevant teams, oh no, it’s Chicago Bears (Justin Fields), Atlanta Falcons (Drake London, Cordarrelle Patterson), Green Bay Packers (Aaron Jones, AJ Dillion), Indianapolis Colts (Jonathan Taylor), New Orleans Saints (Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara) and Washington (Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson). Whew! Start and sit decisions are getting hot and heavy.

But first, let’s see who ruled Week 13 in fantasy football points.

QUARTERBACKS

1. Jalen Hurts v Tennessee Titans, 34.40
2. Joe Burrow v Kansas City Chiefs, 30.04
3. Geno Smith @ Los Angeles Rams, 23.98
4. Jared Goff v Jacksonville Jaguars, 21.60
5. Justin Fields v Green Bay Packers, 21.26

Quarterbacks

Must Start

Jared Goff v Minnesota Vikings, 52.5 o/u, Lions -2.5

First, am I the only one surprised the Lions are a 2.5-point favorite? Second, if this seems like you are chasing points, well, we kind of are (never let anyone tell you it is bad to chase a good thing).

We will be chasing those points as long as Goff plays at home.

Stats courtesy CBSNFL.com

Goff is a better quarterback at home by every stat we care about. Chase those points while you can.

Should Start

Justin Herbert v Miami Dolphins, 52 o/u, Miami -3

I remember not so long ago when it was blasphemous to question whether to start Herbert. Alas, here we are.

This week’s matchup has the second-highest implied total on the slate. Herbert is just coming off scoring 18.1 fantasy points against the Las Vegas Raiders in a losing effort. The two-weeks prior, Herbert tossed in multiple touchdowns while passing for over 250 yards in each game.

Combine all that with the fact that the Dolphins are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (20.2). Herbert should be fine this week.

Meh

Trevor Lawrence @ Tennessee Titans, 41 o/u, Tennessee -4

I will admit there is a tinge of bitterness in this as I went all out last week with Lawrence against the Detroit Lions, and well, it wasn’t all one would hope. Lawrence finished that smash spot with 16.36 fantasy points, a QB16 finish. Okay, so he hurt his foot, whatever.

This week, Lawrence is in yet another smash spot as the Tennessee Titans are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (20.4).

Fields is on a bye; Lamar Jackson is injured. Just play Lawrence already.

Long Shot

Russell Wilson v Kansas City Chiefs, 43.5o/u, Kansas City -9.5

How bad do you have to be to get Patrick Mahomes flexed out of a prime-time spot? Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos offense bad is the obvious answer.

Did you know that last week Wilson was QB27 with 9.66 fantasy points? Did you know that so far, for the season, Wilson is QB22? And did you know that Jamaal Williams has the same number of touchdowns as the Broncos offense?

The moral of the story is do not be swayed by the fact that the Kansas City Chiefs are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position (19.5). That is wasted this week on a quarterback whose fantasy relevance is up in smoke.

RUNNING BACKS

1. Christian McCaffrey v Miami Dolphins, 28.60
2. Tony Pollard v Indianapolis Colts, 24.60
3. Samaje Perine v Kansas City Chiefs, 21.50
4. D’Andre Swift v Jacksonville Jaguars, 21.10
5. Josh Jacobs v Las Angeles Chargers, 21.00

Running Backs

Must Start

Tony Pollard v Houston Texans, 45.5 o/u, Dallas -16

That is an absurdly large point spread. And the fact that Pollard only played 43% of the offensive snaps last week is borderline fantasy abuse. Or it would be if he didn’t average 7.6 yards per carry on 12 rushing attempts for 91 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Let’s face it Pollard (and Josh Jacobs) are Aaron Judging it this year (you know, betting on themselves and winning…yeah, I just made that up, and I am sticking with it).

And now, this week, Pollard and (Ezekiel Elliott) get to go against the Houston Texans, who are giving up the most rushing yards (144.17/g), touchdowns (14), and fantasy points (24.8) to the running back position.

Should Start

Jeff Wilson Jr. @ Los Angeles Chargers, 52o/u, Miami -3

Last week the entire Dolphins’ offense, not named Tyreek Hill, was a fantasy disappointment. Last week the Dolphins played the San Francisco 49ers, who, dare I say, are a better defense than the Los Angeles Chargers.

For his part in the disappointment, Wilson played on 38% of the offensive snaps. He finished with three total yards.

The Chargers have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the running back position (23). They have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns and four receiving touchdowns to running backs. The Chargers’ particular area of weakness is on outside carries.

And it just so happens Wilson leads the Dolphins in outside carries (15) and is tied on touchdowns on outside carries. Spoiler alert, Wilson also leads the Dolphins on inside carries and has been the primary red zone guy.

Is it too early to call Mike McDaniel a mad genius…maybe. But not too early to forgive Wilson for last week and put him in your lineup.

Meh

Cam Akers v Las Vegas Raiders, 43.5 o/u,  Las Vegas -6.5

I know!

Anything is possible in a game that has threatened Baker Mayfield as the starting quarterback for the Rams.

So, Akers is now an asset? Last week he played on 73% of the offensive snaps. He had 60 yards and two touchdowns.

This week he plays the Raiders, who are giving up the third-most fantasy points to the running back position (28).

I’m not saying this is a smash spot (clearly it is under ‘meh’), but “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”—Sir Arthur Conan Doyle

Long Shot

Dameon Pierce @ Dallas Cowboys, 45.5 o/u, Dallas -16

Did you hear that the Houston Texans have returned to Davis Mills? Thank god!

That, my friends, was sarcasm. It just doesn’t matter. Mills is just in time to get up close and personal with Micah Parsons. He must be so excited.

I know this is supposed to be about Pierce, but it doesn’t matter. Don’t play him.

WIDE RECEIVERS

1. Davante Adams v Las Angeles Chargers, 37.70
2. Amon-Ra St. Brown v Jacksonville Jaguars, 34.60
3. AJ Brown v Tennessee Titans, 31.90
4. Tyreek Hill @ San Francisco 49ers, 29.60
5. Tyler Lockett @ Los Angeles Rams, 27.80

Wide Receivers

Must Start

Garrett Wilson @ Buffalo Bills, 44 o/u, Buffalo -9.5

This a rematch from Week 9 when the Jets stunned the Bills 17-20. Clearly, Vegas does not feel it will go that way again.

In that game with Zach Wilson under center, G. Wilson had nine targets with eight receptions and 92 yards.

That was then. Now with Mike White under center Wilson has consistently seen 28% of the targets and 47% of the air yards. Last week Wilson was on the receiving end of 15 targets for eight receptions and 162 yards. Yep, White had 57 passing attempts, but as a road underdog to the tune of 9.5 points, that could be a thing again.

It also helps that the Bills have allowed the second-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position in the past month (43.2).

Should Start

DJ Moore @ Seattle Seahawks, 44o/u, Seattle -3.5

Foreman is the pre-Los Angeles Rams Allen Robinson. You know, a really good wide receiver constricted by really bad quarterback play.

But Sam Darnold is back, and he at least looks Moore’s way. In Week 12, Moore had a 35% target share with four receptions, 103 yards, and a touchdown.

This week he goes against Seattle, which has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position (38.8). This should be a smash, but I am weary of laying bets on Sam Darnold.

Meh

Deebo Samuel v Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 37 o/u, 49er -3.5

First, there is Brock Purdy. Then there is Christian McCaffrey. And then there is an implied total south of 21 points. And last but not least, there is a rumor that Purdy’s nickname is “Big Cock Brock,” which can only end badly for all involved.

Long Shot

Jameson Williams v Minnesota Vikings, 52.5 o/u, Detroit -2.5

Last week, his first time on the field, Williams played 10.8% of the offensive snaps. That was the Lions easing him back onto the playing field. I get it. And there is a possibility that he is still eased into the game, as this will only be his second game back.

But what if…

TIGHT ENDS

1. Cade Otton v New Orleans Saints, 14.80
2. Greg Dulcich @ Baltimore Ravens, 14.50
3. Noah Fant @ Los Angeles Rams, 14.20
4. Evan Engram @ Detroit Lions, 14.0
5. Taysom Hill @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 13.3

“Never be afraid when people can’t see what you see. Only be afraid if you no longer see it.”—Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

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