NFL DFS: Game Scripts for Week 11

Week 11 is shaping up to be one with some polarizing game scripts. We have a handful of JUICY games and plenty that look to be duds. I couldn’t write them all up so I took a peak at three of my favorites this week while intentionally ignoring the NFC South battles as those are clearly “play everyone” type games.

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All lines are current as of Thursday Morning.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-4). Over/Under 50.5.

Probable Outcome:

• Some really good games this week from both an NFL and fantasy perspective. I tried to avoid the NFC South because they seem to get written up every week. This game, offers just as much potential though as two talented offenses face off in an AFC playoff preview.

• HOU Side: The Texans have two decent backs that eat into each others production, so even if I had interest, it makes it difficult. Vegas anticipates Houston being down in this one which makes it easy to fire up the usual suspects in Deshaun Watson to Deandre Hopkins. Monitor the injury news for Fuller as well as he or Stills will be in my player pool.

• BAL Side: Vegas believes the Ravens will win comfortably in a high scoring affair. Whether ahead or behind, if they score points we know it will be thanks to Lamar Jackson you don’t need to pair him in this spot but if I am looking for an angle, Hollywood Brown is my favorite target against this weak secondary.

Alternative Outcome:

• This game should produce points, but I do see some slight risk in this spot for Houston. They are on the road, potential weather conditions, and they are facing a defense that is getting back to full health, plus they sport a loaded secondary. 

• HOU Side: Like we saw the Ravens do with the Patriots, I can see a spot where Ravens get up big and apply the pressure to Houston. They have a loaded secondary so I won’t be forcing any HOU players in plenty of my builds. 

• BAL Side: If the Ravens take an early lead, we can look at the legs of Mark Ingram (besides Lamar). The Ravens D is also in a sneaky spot at home against a shaky OL. A Baltimore runner paired with the defense makes for a strong play. 

Dallas Cowboys (OTB) at Detroit Lions. Over/Under OTB.

If Stafford Plays Outcome:

• Going to run this script similar to what we did with Chiefs last few weeks. Dallas should be favored regardless but the script will change drastically depending on if Detroit can keep it competitive which is highly unlikely if Stafford sits again. Let’s run the scenario assuming Stafford plays and this game can go either way.

• DAL Side: Detroit defense isn’t the worst but it’s pretty bad. This game has shootout potential if Detroit can hang some points. The only spot Detroit is capable of shutting down is the #1 WR. I think the air and ground game can be effective here so I will look at Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, and Michael Gallup.

• DET Side: Detroit should find success getting the ball to their RB and TE’s in open space while the WR’s will find it tough sledding. We have some injury news to monitor on the ground but I love the spot for J.D. McKissic as he should be the lead back and get plenty of targets as a pass catcher. T.J. Hockenson should also be funneled more targets as the WR’s battle on the outside.

If Stafford Sits Outcome:

• If Jeff Driskel plays, this lowers the potential substantially to both sides as I see the Cowboys being able to cruise to a victory. 

• DAL Side: The Cowboys will be comfortable taking the air out of the ball. Of course, this is just fine for the Ezekiel Elliott play as he should be able to put up points. I also like the idea of pairing him with the Cowboys Defense.

• DET Side: Jeff Driskel won’t be able to do much which makes everyone a risky play. I still like J.D. McKissic though as his prowess as a pass catcher will be handy if playing from behind and bailing out an erratic QB.

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders (-10.5). Over/Under 48.5.

Probable Outcome:

• I wanted the opportunity to write up a few teams that normally wouldn’t make “the scripts.” Oakland has one of the highest implied totals of the week and will garner plenty of attention. Will the blowout affect things though?

• CIN Side: The debut of the rookie QB went about as well you would anticipate. However, I think there are some sneaky plays this week as Oakland is a pushover on defense. This is good as it makes this game higher likelihood of competitive. Obviously I still think Bengals are down in this one and will have to pass. I won’t look at the QB but with AJ Green slated to miss again (the season?) I will look at Tyler Boyd or Auden Tate as one offs, or part of a small game stack.

• OAK Side: You probably know by now that the Bengals are atrocious against the run. Fire up Josh Jacobs as the chalk play of the week. I like the idea of pairing him with Raiders D for a sneaky stack option. The Raiders should lean on their rookie RB to seal the win.

 

Contrarian View:

• I am really liking the Bengals to put up some points and keep this more competitive than anticipated. If this game opens up, the other sides of the offense come into play. 

• CIN Side: We saw last week the Bengals protected their QB by handing the ball off early and often to Joe Mixon. The Raiders present another rare opportunity for him to produce and he will be in my player pool as Bengals put up points. 

• OAK side: The more the Raiders have to stay aggressive the better. As a bonus, we know where the targets are going to go when they need to pass the ball. Another stacking option in this game is Derek Carr to either Tyrell Williams or Darren Waller. Getting this game right might be the key to the slate and I am going in heavy.

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