NFL DFS: Game Scripts for Week 14

Glad to be back after a Thanksgiving hiatus. Hope your holiday was enjoyable (and profitable). We are in the last month of the regular season. I love this time of year as there is tons more “art” than “science” to these matchups. What I mean is you have to factor in difficult/no quantifiable information more into your decisions the last 25% of the season. At least, that is what I do. I will approach the script from a purely season projection/Vegas outlook perspective but ask yourselves these questions when making lineup decisions because it can change your thoughts on a game:

1. Motivation for each team?
2. Division game- Round 2?
3. Weather?
4. Changes in philosophy/production over shorter time frame. I like to look at last 5 games as a sample and see if the offense and defense are performing differently than their season data indicates.

I am sure I am missing some more factors, but let’s dive into week 14 of the scripts. For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it.

As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.

All lines are current as of Thursday Afternoon:

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3). Over/Under 47.

Probable Outcome:

• Vegas projects the Bucs to squeak out a victory at home in a potentially high scoring affair. This game should be close as the Colts are the better team and more disciplined squad. Let’s dive into the potential outcomes.

• IND Side: It probably doesn’t matter if the Colts are up or down (unless the get up by a lot), they will need to pass the ball to find success against a stout TB front 7. We know we can only attack them through the air so I will have my eyes on Jacoby Brissett and Jack Doyle as a great 1-2 punch.

• TB Side: Tampa will also find themselves against a stout run D which is fine because we can’t trust their backs. While the Colts are good at limiting big plays, they are prone to allowing many catches underneath which suits Chris Godwin the best.

Alternative Outcome:

• I think the matchup pretty much dictates what we need to play if we are interested but there are other parts of this passing attack I will be considering as GPP Plays. 

• IND Side: With all the injuries to the WR core, someone will see an uptick in targets. It’s a pretty good spot for Zach Pascal as the default #1 WR. If I decide to stack this game a bit, he is in the conversation. 

• TB Side: The Buccaneers have two elite WR’s and I already mentioned the one I think best suited to beat this zone defense. However, Mike Evans is the type of player who can put up a multi touchdown game any moment and he will be in consideration for me.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5). Over/Under 46.

Probable Outcome:

• I picked this one because they aren’t your abysmal Jets and Dolphins we knew from earlier in the year, well at least on offense. AND the over has aggressively been moving up indicating people are betting this turns into an offensive shootout.

• MIA Side: Fitzmagic is alive and well and has breathed life into this offense. Vegas projects them to be down a score which is where I want these guys if I am going to play them (when aren’t they down a score?). The aforementioned Ryan Fitzpatrick starts the list and I will want to pair him with the likes of DeVante Parker or Mike Gesicki as Jamal Adams is hurt and this Jets defense hasn’t been as stout against TE’s as we are used to.

• NYJ Side: On the flip side, we have seen the Jets show life over the past month, if they are to seal this victory at home, I expect them to do it through the air where Sam Darnold has one of the best matchups on paper and I always like to pair them up so will consider either Robby Anderson or Jamison Crowder.

Alternative Outcome:

• You can probably tell by my plays that I like the over in this game. I will be looking for different combinations to stack and hope I land on the right one. While I ignored the running game for the most part, I do think it offers potential for at least one side. 

• MIA Side: The Patrick Laird hype is getting out of control, his ownership might get me off him. I think this will be a key stance on this week’s slate, no doubt Laird is trending towards more playing time but he is facing one of the best run D’s. I am hoping as I solidify my player pool I have enough value where I don’t have to consider him but Laird at least merit’s mentioning on a Thursday.

• NYJ Side: It sounds like Gase wants to move on from Leveon Bell which makes me think he will continue to be phased out of the plan. While I don’t like his chances, Ryan Griffin continues to perform as a red zone TE and should have plenty of opportunity in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3). Over/Under 49.

Probable Outcome:

• We had to address this one as it pits the most dynamic offenses against one of the best defenses this season. It could also be a playoff preview and this game will help decide seeding in the competitive AFC landscape.

• KC Side: Typically, it’s never a bad idea to play Chiefs but this matchup should give us a refreshing analysis as to the optimal way to approach them when they are up against an elite defensive unit. I don’t know if this game will get to 50 points like Vegas predicts. Regardless of score, it’s tough to trust the ground game due to the timeshare so we can quickly move on from that. If we explore through the air in a back and forth game, the best spot perhaps of the entire week goes to Travis Kelce. We know he is elite and Patriots have really struggled against TE’s as of late. If there is one cash game play, he is my boy.

 

• NE Side: The Chiefs defense is much worse on the road which opens up more potential but everyone has figured out the key to beating KC is to run it up the middle against them. It might be Sony Michel #SZN as we saw him dominate in the winter months last season. I am willing to bet it happens again.

Contrarian View:

• Obviously these are two very well coached and talented teams so it’s hard to shy away from many people so I will offer some GPP’s alternatives. 

• KC Side: I do fear Stephon Gilmore shadow coverage so I will bet on Patrick Mahomes spreading the ball to his other targets and still having himself a nice game. 

• NE Side: If New England finds themselves in a higher scoring affair, they will need to get chunks of yardage and their best player to do that is Julian Edelman as he has the ability to rack up 8 catches at 15 yards a pop. I will play a lighter amount of these two teams than normal as I think New England will be successful in slowing this game down via the run.

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