The games didn’t pan out as predicted in week 3 but we had the right pieces in play, hopefully you found the right combination to cash. For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it.
For week 4, tried to make a concerted effort to touch on some teams we haven’t seen in “the script” thus far. In addition, I touched on a lower projected scoring affair as these games can provide some great GPP leverage when they go over. Most DFS players see a total under 40 points and ignore it. One of the games this week looks JUICY enough to gamble on it hitting the over.
As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.
All lines are current as of Thursday morning.
Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (-4.5). Over/Under 47
Probable Outcome:
- First game for the scripts is the Panthers traveling to Houston. Vegas projects this to be a middling scoring affair with the Texans pulling away by a little over a field goal. The Panthers have surprisingly played impressive through their pass defense while being much softer against the run. The Texans are a middle of the road defense that doesn’t cause me concern from a script perspective. This game is tough to gauge for me so let’s follow Vegas for the probable outcome.
- CAR Side: The air attack saw a price bump but not an amount that would cause me concern when playing them. Carolina likes to play up tempo and, as discussed in last week’s value plays, Kyle Allen is actually a short term upgrade over Cam Newton because of how this team is built. They need short, accurate passing to get the ball in their playmakers hands, and they have a trio of them. Christian McCaffrey will contribute through the air and ground, and Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore have GPP winning upside. I project this game similar to the Cardinals game last week where the Panthers will be moving the ball quickly which is going to lead to some scoring. I will be targeting this side of the ball.
- HOU Side: The Texan’s running game is a disaster of a timeshare so it’s an easy fade even in a spot as home favorites where we like to target them. If the Texans are going to do their part in this game, it will be through the air. I will condense my focus on Deandre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Let’s hope the Panthers keep up so the Texans have to keep throwing.
Contrarian View:
- As I said, this game is tough to project but we went Houston’s strength (passing) beating the Panther’s strength (Pass D). What happens if the Panthers defense wins that battle? I will have some shares of this game based on Carolina pulling off an upset.
- CAR Side: Under this scenario, I will lean more heavily on CMC and sprinkle in Panthers Defense as a contrarian stack. Houston is prone to giving up sacks and Carolina got to Arizona 8 times last game. We don’t need to attack the lowest scoring offense each week, we want that offense that will be in position to make mistakes.
- HOU Side: James Bradberry has done a good job shutting down the WR #1 each week. This makes this side a tricky play for me. Will Fuller maintains his GPP breaking upside and the Panthers are prone to giving up big plays as they try to make their own, so my strategy will be to favor him. It’s only a matter of time before he goes off for a 2 TD game.
New England Patriots (-7) at Buffalo Bills Over/Under 42.5
Probable Outcome:
- A very interesting game for AFC East purposes might not result in much interest for DFS purposes. We have two elite defensive units facing off in a projected low scoring affair. While this game probably won’t result in complete stacks, there is potential value to be found.
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- NE Side: The only defensive weakness for either squad is the Bills run defense. Unfortunately, Sony Michel has been relegated to timeshare duties and hasn’t produced with his time. Unless James White goes on paternity leave, this 3-headed monster is a hands off. I have to imagine Tradavius White will shadow Josh Gordon and we need to monitor Edelman, which points me to Phillip Dorsett. I will probably have most of my exposure to this game through him. If Julian Edleman sounds like he will play, will also use him. Patriots D is also in play as they look like they are an elite unit and Josh Allen is mistake prone.
- BUF Side: Welcome to the big boy league Buffalo Bills. This is a tough spot for them and they haven’t been in this spotlight in many years. It’s not a spot I am fond to attack since their running game is a timeshare or manned by ageless wonder Frank Gore. Patriots have a knack for taking away a team’s best weapon so I imagine John Brown sees Gilmore coverage. Cole Beasley might get some extra run on some dump off passes in the slot but he isn’t the highest upside play. This is a hands off for me mostly and just a reminder that the best NFL games don’t always mean we have to stack them up. Its refreshing to see a potential defensive battle.
Contrarian View:
- As you can gather from my notes from the Vegas total, I am not giving the Bills much of a chance of keeping this close. The Bills have been underestimated through 3 weeks, so what happens if they keep this game competitive? Is it through a defensive battle (doesn’t change much in above besides being light on exposure to these guys) or do we see a back and forth higher scoring affair? That’s in the realm of outcomes as we have seen both teams put up points and Buffalo in September won’t be cold.
- NE Side: I will add some shares of James White to my pool just in case the Patriots need to keep on the pressure a bit more. The problem is the Patriots can spread it out so much that they can have a good offensive game but not one individual player blows up for a huge game. It’s still a tread lightly spot and focusing on Dorsett and Edelman.
- BUF Side: This could be fun. Josh Allen is one of the most fantasy friendly QB’s in football. He runs and he slings the ball. If the Bills are to keep pace, it will be because he has his coming out party to the rest of the NFL. It’s a rare occasion, but I like playing Josh Allen without stacking his pass catchers.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3). Over/Under 38.5
Probable Outcome:
- A game you probably didn’t expect to see on the scripts. Most players look at the game line and when they see below 40, simply cross it off the list. While this should work most of the time, these games are great leverage spots if we find value. We don’t necessarily have to stack this game but getting the right piece of it can help you win.
JAX Side: This line is based on the perception that both offenses are bad and both defenses are elite. Only one of this things is true (offenses suck) BUT the Jags have shown a little bit of fight with their rookie QB thrown into the mix. The Bronco’s D is actually bottom third in both pass and run D and they haven’t recorded a sack or INT so far this year. I think the Jags have potential to really outscore their implied total. I don’t think I need to go crazy with stacks but I will be eyeing either Dede Westbrook or Leonard Fournette as a one off play.
JAX Side: This line is based on the perception that both offenses are bad and both defenses are elite. Only one of this things is true (offenses suck) BUT the Jags have shown a little bit of fight with their rookie QB thrown into the mix. The Bronco’s D is actually bottom third in both pass and run D and they haven’t recorded a sack or INT so far this year. I think the Jags have potential to really outscore their implied total. I don’t think I need to go crazy with stacks but I will be eyeing either Dede Westbrook or Leonard Fournette as a one off play.- DEN Side: The Jaguars D is middle of pack against the pack and near bottom against the run DVOA. Monitor the Jalen Ramsey situation because if he sits out, that pass defense will be even worse. Once again, I don’t think we need to stack it up but with the Bronco’s projected to be a FG winner at home, I will lean Phillip Lindsay to help bring this one home.
Contrarian View:
- So I cautioned to treat lightly as the optimal approach, but what if both teams get into a back and forth scoring affair? It’s not likely with these crappy offenses but crazier things have happened.
- JAX Side: I don’t think he will make my final cut but Gardner Minshew merits a discussion as a possible stack with the aforementioned Westbrook.
- DEN Side: This is where I lose you guys. BUT if Jalen Ramsey sits this one out, I might take a shot or two with Joe Flacco and pair him up with Emmanuel Sanders. Am I going to get crazy and do something with a game stack? Maybe not but this game is very appealing for a great leverage spot. We will address my issues after this score ends up being 10-7.
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