NFL DFS: Game Scripts for Week 5

Week 4 was the first big payoff for a month’s worth of work for the scripts. The Jags v. Bronco’s game was mostly avoided by the masses and ended up producing plenty of fantasy goodness. I rode this game to a 2^nd and 3^rd place finish in the TNF-MNF $4, 20 max entry GPP.

No time to celebrate, let’s look forward to week 5 where I once again have interest in some of the games played on primetime. For those unfamiliar with what we are trying to achieve with this article, take a peek at the introduction so you can get a feel for it.

As always, follow me on Twitter for all my thoughts between article and kickoff based on late breaking news as my thoughts can (and will) change based upon news we gather right before kickoff.

All lines are current as of Thursday morning.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5). Over/Under 49.5.

Probable Outcome:

• Thursday Night Football provides us with the 2^nd highest projected scoring game of the week (SNF carries the first) so for those who like to play the TNF-MNF slate, it makes sense to get some action on these games. The Rams have a top third defense DVOA against the run and pass while Seattle is slightly below average in both categories. Neither offer spots to avoid or attack (barring some late injuries) so it’s a matter of picking your spots in what Vegas has as a very close game.

• LA Side: As we have addressed before, Jared Goff has some extreme home/road splits so I will avoid him since the game is in Seattle. However, Cooper Kupp has been too good to ignore and should exploit the Seattle D in this spot. Robert Woods or Brandin Cooks are also viable but picking which one is always difficult, most people just avoid the situation but I advise taking one and making a stand. If people only see the fantasy points from Gurley last week, they will likely jam him in this spot. The receiving aspect and close range TD plunges really elevated him. His stats do not back up his price so I will tread lightly here.

• SEA Side: Chris Carson got the workhouse role last week and finally escaped a game without a fumble. It’s also a short week so no guarantees Penny is back in the fray. He will most likely be a priority play for me on the full slate. As for the passing attack, Russell Wilson to Tyler Lockett or Will Dissly are my favorite connections as LA has given up some big plays in the middle of the field.

Contrarian View:

• It will be difficult for me to get off this game in main slates as both teams funnel their targets and it projects to be high scoring. I see very few scenarios where it plays extremely under the point total. 

• LA Side: The contrarian view will be to load up on Todd Gurley and hope his skill set allows him to produce in spite of his workload reduction. It’s not a play I am fond of but Gurley is still very talented. 

• SEA Side: One aspect that has been touched on before is that these close high scoring games often produce a viable defense that will be under owned. In this case I will side with the home team Seattle D in some lineups and hope they force off to make mistakes. A Carson to Seattle D stack has sneaky upside. 

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-3). Over/Under 47.

Probable Outcome:

• No interest from a pure NFL perspective, but give me all of this game from a fantasy football perspective. Two of the worst defenses square off in what should be a very fast paced game. It might not be pretty, but I project this to comfortably hit the over. The question will be how to attack this spot.

• ARI Side: Cincinnati is horrible against the pass and not much better against the run. We know how the Cardinals like to funnel their targets so I see no reason to get cute and venture outside the core. Kyler Murray, David Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald are my core plays. Monitor the Christian Kirk injury news as his involvement might affect other plays.

• CIN Side: This is sure to be another popular stack of players but my favorite will be Joe Mixon as the Bengals are projected to win and I can see the Bengals riding the RB to victory. It’s a rare occasion Joe will get to touch the ball with a lead. Andy Dalton should also be on everyone’s radar (I know I’m sorry) as the Cards give away points to the QB. The John Ross injury opens up approx. 8 targets, Auden Tate will probably be the value chalk of the week. I also like Tyler Boyd and Tyler Eifert as the Cards are vulnerable over the middle.

Contrarian View:

• Just like the last game, it’s going to be difficult for me to get away from this game but I will offer up the defenses as viable options because these offenses are SLOPPY and can shoot themselves in the foot pretty easy. 

• ARI Side: Cardinals D is my lean if I am choosing a defense, the Bengals looked horrible on Monday night and I don’t see how they turn it around with their horrible offensive line. Same plays on offense for me in this scenario as well. 

• CIN Side: I expect Dalton to be chalky this week, so a good contrarian fade will be him in GPP’s. Also keep in mind that Patrick Peterson is back for the Cardinals and should immediately go into shadow coverage. I don’t know if he will venture into the slot to guard Boyd so Auden Tate might end up being a chalk bust. This is something to monitor as the week draws nears. I will be lighter on the passing side than the field for sure.

 Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (-5). Over/Under 49.

Probable Outcome:

• A tale of two middling defenses pitted against two high powered offenses who have pushed the pace so far in 2019. Sounds like a good spot for some game stacking potential. The Falcons have a fantastic ability of playing up or down to their opponents, they can realistically beat any team in the league and just as easily lose to the worst teams a week later. To me, this means this game should be a back and forth, high scoring game. Let’s dive in.

• ATL Side: Matt Ryan has severe home/road splits but this game is played indoors so I think he is worth the risk on the road as the Texans secondary has been running people in and out of the lineup to solve their coverage problems. This obviously is a good sign for Julio Jones and I think he will be a popular play this week. On the ground, Houston allows a ton of catches out of the backfield and a run average of approximately 4.5 YPC. Devonta Freeman has angered plenty of people this year but I am willing to go back to the well in this spot.

 

 

 

 

 

• HOU Side: Let’s start with the running game as they employ two RB’s who cancel each other out. The Texans will score but I will bank it coming from the passing game. Speaking of, Deshaun Watson is an excellent bounce back candidate and DeAndre Hopkins finally gets a breather after having a very tough shadow CB matchup each week of the year so far. Another popular stacking option. Will Fuller will round out my solid plays this week as he owns a massive share of the air yards and barely missed a huge play last week. It’s only a matter of time before he has a 5 catch, 180 yard, 2 TD type game.

Contrarian View:

• I am not going to bet this game plays to the under. I am pushing my chips into the middle and saying this game gives us approximately 50 points. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t contrarian ways to approach the plays. 

• ATL Side: Calvin Ridley has frustrated plenty of owners so far but, like Fuller, is prone to massive games. How funny will it be when Ridley/Fuller stacks are the winning combination instead of Julio/Hopkins? I will make plenty of teams going this route. Austin Hooper has established himself as a TE1 but it should be noted Houston has locked down TE’s so far this season. He isn’t a play for me, wanted to explain the reasoning. 

• HOU side: Duke Johnson took back lead role by playing approximately 65% of the snaps last week. He is a risky play but the Falcons have always been a target when we are looking for pass catching backs. If Duke is going to do anything this year, this might be the game. 

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5). Over/Under 46.5.

Probable Outcome:

• Sunday’s game of the week from a pure football perspective. It also offers some interesting opportunities from a DFS perspective as the Packers have a great defense but only the passing D is truly elite. This sets up nicely for what the Cowboys want to do, lets dive in.

• GB Side: The Cowboys so far this year are right down the middle DVOA against the run and pass. I believe I have said this before but just in case, I only consider defense matchups at the extreme end of the rankings (avoid elite units, attack bottom barrel units). Sounds pretty obvious but people will avoid middling units when in all honesty those units are capable of shutting down opponents or giving up big plays. That’s where we get our edge. Since both units are mediocre, I will lean on Vegas who projects the Cowboys to win by a FG. If that is the case, I will have more interest in the Packers passing attack. Aaron Rodgers makes my initial list but we need to monitor the injuries of Davante Adams and Jamaal Williams before we figure out what value opens up or who to pair Aaron with. Regardless of status of Williams, Aaron Jones is in a good spot as a pass catching option out of the backfield. Stay tuned for values article which might list more GB plays as news trickles in.

• DAL Side: home favorite playing a team that funnels action to the RB? Ezekiel Elliott makes too much sense in this spot. Not going to overthink this one, he is going to be chalky and for good reason. It sounds like Michael Gallup will be back but keep monitoring, the injury that concerns me more is their tackle Tyron Smith. I saw a stat that in the games Smith has missed in last few years, the Cowboys haven’t cracked 20 points (or something like that). I will be cautious taking anyone from the pass catching side.

Contrarian View:

• Plenty of injuries to monitor in this game which could shake up the outcome. If everyone mentioned above is ruled out, most players will plug in their backups for salary savers but this game could also just be a slugfest with either team winning by a score of 15-10. If that’s the case, I will tread lightly with some of my tournament builds and avoid this game. 

• GB Side: As discussed, instead of forcing in MVS and/or Geronimo Allison if Adams is out, a better play will be to bet against this offense. So far this season, the Packers have struggled on offense under their new coach and it could happen again. 

• DAL Side: The Dallas D is in play for me and make a great stack option with Zeke. However, I also like Dallas D solo as the absence of the LT will affect the run game just as much as the pass game. Instead of forcing value plays, just avoid to make yourself contrarian.

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