It is hard to believe we are already into week three of the 2018-19 NFL season. We now have two weeks of data to go off of, which in all honesty, is not a lot. That being said, there has been enough football played to determine which teams are playoff hopefuls, versus those looking forward to next years draft (yes you, Buffalo).
With injuries racking up, value options have opened up. While in cash games most of the values appear to be “must plays”, this is a GPP article. Thus, fading cheap chalk is almost always the wisest decision. Let’s dive into some of my favorite GPP players for week three.
Deshaun Watson (HOU) vs. NYG $7,700
The quarterback darling heading into week one has suddenly found himself as the seventh most expensive starter this Sunday. Coming off of a solid performance last week, Watson will likely garner around 7-10% ownership. Although we haven’t seen the 2017 Deshaun Watson yet, a home game against the Giants might awake the beast. The Giants appear to be a stingy defense when looking at the surface statistics, but they have had the pleasure of dealing with Blake Bortles and a wide receiverless Dak Prescott.
Watson has scored 13 touchdowns in his last three starts at home. This is his first home game of the season and it could not come at a better time. The Texans offense will go drastically overlooked this week, which is a huge mistake.
Cam Newton (CAR) vs. CIN $6,000
Simply mispriced on DraftKings, Cam Newton is inline to smash value at just $6,000. When he is fully healthy, Cam can produce better than anyone on any given week. His rushing ability provides enough of a floor that the passing game is all bonus points. So far, he has 18 rush attempts for 100 yards and a touchdown. As most of us know, the Bengals have a very suspect defense, which allowed Andrew Luck to score 23.5 DK points and Joe Flacco 23.8.
Cam has thrown one pick and three scores in two games, while also rushing for 100 yards. The fantasy production is there as a top-tier QB, while his price reflects that of a mid-tier caliber player. In cash games, he is a lock. In GPP’s the upside is as great of any starter.
Other quarterbacks to consider: Patrick Mahomes, Jimmy Garoppolo, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan
Ezekiel Elliot (DAL) @ SEA $8,200
Although he hasn’t had a monster game in his first two starts, Ezekiel Elliot has scored a touchdown in each of those games while also receiving 10 targets through the air. Here’s the thing; sure, Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley are fantastic options and could outscore Elliot. However, the Cowboys superstar will come in at a less than 10% ownership in a great matchup against an awful Seahawks defense. He is the only offensive weapon on Dallas worth mentioning and the Cowboys will need to continue riding him each and every game. On the season, Dallas is 11th in rushing yards per game, fifth in yards per carry, eighth in run blocking per PFF and first in rush offense DVOA. Now that Zeke is seeing more action through the air, load up on the stud before his price sky-rockets.
Other running backs to consider: Todd Gurley, Kareem Hunt, Latavius Murray, Jordan Howard, Kenyan Drake
Saquon Barkley (NYG) @ HOU $7,600
Until he is the highest priced runningback on the slate, I will continue to write up Saquon Barkley. Last week was a perfect example as to why. The Giants are going to force Barkley the ball in so many situations. The matchup is not ideal, but it wasn’t last week against the Cowboys and certainly wasn’t in week one against the Jags. He is proving to be a matchup-proof back who has the ability to put up fantasy points each and every week. In addition to the team feeding him the rock as much as possible, the kid has immense skill. His ability to make defenders miss makes him a big play waiting to happen every snap. Again, in the top tier of running backs, Barkley will see around 8-10% ownership, which is just too low. Most people will look at the top two studs in Kamara and Gurley and then pair down with a value guy. Pivoting to either of these two backs immediately differentiates a lineup.
Other running backs to consider: Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Tevin Coleman, Giovani Bernard
Keelan Cole (JAX) vs. TEN $6,400
Keelan Cole appears to be the go-to-guy for Bortles. Now that he isn’t the obvious week one cheap chalk, the majority of people are jumping off the bandwagon. Even though he is coming off of a 7-116-1 performance, I don’t see Cole coming more than 8-10%. This is absurd for a guy who needs just 15 FanDuel points to pay off value. There are other mouths to feed in Jacksonville, and the news of Fournette coming back does not help. However, week one this guy was 30%+ owned and his skill set has not changed. The number one receiver on a team facing a terrible Titans pass defense cannot be ignored.
Other wide receivers to consider: Michael Thomas, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyreek Hill, Allen Robinson, John Brown, Chris Conley
Nelson Agholor (PHI) vs. IND $6,100
To get different in tournaments, paying up for both running backs will leave you with little salary for a top end wideout. Enter Nelson Agholor. This is a misprice for a guy who has seen double-digit targets and eight receptions in each of his last two games. The Colts will try to cover Agholor with one of the NFL’s worst corners, Kenny Moore. With the absence of Mike Wallace, Alshon Jeffery, and now Jay Ajayi, the offense will go through Zach Ertz and Agholor. He should be a lock for another eight or more receptions, giving the Eagles receiver a very high floor with upside.
Other wide receivers to consider: Michael Thomas, Adam Theilen, Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Green, Pierre Garcon, Cooper Kupp
Will Dissly (SEA) vs. DAL $4,600
A model of consistency, the Seahawks rookie tight end has recorded three receptions on five targets with a touchdown in both of his NFL games this season. It is no secret that Seattle has a lack of offensive weapons. However, Russell Wilson has shown interest in his new toy. Last season Jimmy Graham was a huge red zone presence which should be filled by Dissly. Wilson’s mobile ability freezes most linebackers, making a lot of open space for athletic tight ends to run their complete route to get open. At near minimum price, Dissly should easily come in as a top value play on the week.
Eric Ebron (IND) @ PHI $3,400
Jack Doyle has officially been ruled out this week which should leave a lot of targets available for the athletic tight end. Over the first two weeks, Doyle has seen 15 targets, most of which should come Ebron’s way. Luck has shown chemistry with the newly acquired playmaker and the Colts will need to throw on this tough Philly’s team. Tight end is another position where we can pay down at in order to afford the stud running backs.
Other tight ends to consider: Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Jimmy Graham
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