We are now three weeks into the NFL season and we are starting to pick up on trends. Maybe Fitzmagic is the goat? Maybe Mahomes is this year’s Deshaun Watson? I really don’t know, but this has been an insane start to a season. And now we have the Patriots acquiring Josh Gordon. I don’t even know where to begin. So, here are my favorite week 3 matchups and ones I am avoiding!
Bills at Vikings
The Bills are shaping up to be one of the worst teams in recent memories. They have offensive line issues, a quarterback dilemma, a running back with risky off the field issues and cracked rib cartilage, and they cannot stop the run. I mean, the Vikings are favored by 17 points. That is unheard of.
Favorite Matchups
Dalvin Cook was ruled out yesterday making Latavius Murray a slam dunk play. He was actually on the waiver wire in one of my big money leagues, so he may still be out there for some. Fire him up.
The Vikings defense is the biggest lock I’ve ever seen. They’ll be forcing short fields and will likely score a touchdown. And even if they don’t, that’ll put Kirk Cousins in great positions to throw some scores. Diggs and Theilen each have one red zone target, but Diggs did convert his for a touchdown. I would say he’s the better bet to catch one here.
Matchups to Avoid
This opening slate of games for the Bills has just been absolutely brutal. It is so difficult to start any of their guys. If there was anyone that I would have to play, it would be running back Marcus Murphy. It would be an absolute desperation play, like someone holding a gun to my head, but I think he’s going to rack up targets with negative game script.
Giants at Texans
This one is a matchup between two of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. I think the stud receivers go off in this game, but I’m not looking at much else.
Favorite Matchups
Odell Beckham will be up against 34-year-old Jonathan Joseph, who was notoriously burned every week last year. He should be heavily targeted in this one.
I am loving Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins this week. Olivier Vernon will be out yet again for the Giants, and they can’t seem to get any pressure without him. Watson will have plenty of time to hold the ball and let his receivers get free downfield. Hopkins and Fuller should eat the Giants corners alive.
I also think Lamar Miller should have a good game. He keeps getting the touches and now he’ll be seeing positive game script. Miller should also be utilized in the passing game with the Giants poor linebackers.
Matchups to Avoid
I really hate Eli Manning in this one. The Giants already have the worst line and it just got even worse. Their center Jon Halapio is done for the year, so pressure will be coming from right up the middle on Eli in this one. Ereck Flowers will also be trying to block J.J. Watt. Good luck with that.
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Packers at Redskins
Despite being borderline immobile, Aaron Rodgers still looks like the best quarterback in football. It’s amazing that he only has one ring.
Favorite Matchups
The Packers defense is solid, but they are beatable on the outside. They have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. I’m not really interested in Jamison Crowder because of his lack of usage, but I would take a shot on Paul Richardson and Josh Doctson.
I also like Chris Thompson in this one. I think Washington will give up on the run early in this game and Thompson will play most of the snaps.
Davante Adams should move around the formation enough to be off of Josh Norman’s radar. He’s also seen five red zone targets while Jimmy Graham has yet to even see one. He’s a touchdown machine.
Matchups to Avoid
I want no part of Adrian Peterson in this one. His passing game work has been encouraging, but it’s not like he’s out there in negative game script situations or in the two-minute drill.
Many people might be excited about Aaron Jones’ return but McCarthy already poured water on those hopes. He is firmly behind Ty Montgomery and Jamal Williams, but I wouldn’t really want to start any of them.
49ers at Chiefs
This game has a massive implied point total. Mahomes has been the most impressive player in the NFL so far, and Garoppolo has been decent enough to warrant consideration.
Favorite Matchups
I faded Travis Kelce last week because he didn’t seem to mesh with Mahomes in the preseason or in week 1, but then he went off and won some guy a million bucks. This week I am trying to apply that to Kareem Hunt. I see many people fading him because of his lack of usage, but they don’t realize that they’ve opened up the season with two road games. In road games, Hunt averages only 17 touches per game dating back to last season. In home games, he averages 23 touches per game. They should be up in this game and they’ll lean on him in the second half. The touchdowns are coming.
I think this will also be a big tight end game for both teams. Kelce and Kittle should go back and forth in this one. Eric Berry is coming back for the Chiefs, but it will be his first game off of that torn Achilles. Kittle roasted Harrison Smith in week 1, so I love his chances against Berry.
Matchups to Avoid
I want a piece of pretty much every position in this game, but if I had to fade one it would be the 49ers running backs. According to Sharp Football, Alfred Morris has actually been the more successful back through two weeks, Breida just had the explosive game in week 2. Neither of these guys is used in passing situations either, so I can’t trust any of them, especially in this one where they’ll likely be behind.
Raiders at Dolphins
Gruden seems to think that finding a pass rusher is difficult in this league. The Raiders have played on Monday night twice since Khalil Mack entered the league, so Gruden must not have been paying much attention.
Favorite Matchups
I think Stills will break a long one here. The Raiders can’t generate pressure and Tannehill should have plenty of time to throw deep.
I’m also comfortable streaming Tannehill here as well. He has actually looked decent so far, and his rushing picked up last week.
Matchups to Avoid
Amari Cooper should be shadowed by Xavien Howard in this game. He is talented and should give Cooper a tough time.
The Raiders have given up the third most rushing yards, but the ninth fewest receptions and receiving yards to running backs. Neither of the Dolphins running backs has separated themselves yet, so I’m likely avoiding the situation.
Colts at Eagles
We finally get to see Carson Wentz under center for this explosive Eagles team, but many of their weapons are banged up. This is going to be a very interesting game for the long-term outlook of both of these teams.
Favorite Matchups
DeSean Jackson took advantage of Jalen Mills last week on the opening play of the game. I am praying that they finally open up the playbook for Andrew Luck and let him rip some deep balls to T.Y. Hilton. This offense needs more explosiveness, and I think we see it this week.
With Jack Doyle out, Eric Ebron slides into the high-end TE1 tier. While Doyle was consistently getting more routes and targets, Ebron was catching the targets. Put those roles together and you have an elite tight end.
This is also set up for a Zach Ertz game. The Eagles signed Jordan Matthews this week, and he should kick Agholor outside on most plays. That leaves Ertz as Wentz’ most trusted inside receiver. I think he’ll have a great game.
Matchups to Avoid
As previously stated, Agholor will likely be running more routes on the outside. If anyone remembers the first few years of his career, he rarely played in the slot and he underwhelmed. If he isn’t running a majority of the routes out of the slot, it’ll be hard to roll with him.
I also hate Jordan Wilkins in this game. Everyone is on him because Marlon Mack is expected to miss the game, but the Eagles gave up the fewest fantasy points to running backs last season and they will be better on offense in this game. Wilkins won’t get many rushing opportunities, and he won’t take all the passing work with Nyheim Hines playing.
Titans at Jaguars
If you’ve been following Dr. David Chao on Twitter, you’ll know that Marcus Mariota has some serious concerns for his long-term health. Mariota suffered nerve damage in his elbow and can’t even grip a ball normally. He can’t throw a spiral and this takes velocity off of his ball. It could be weeks before he is back to normal.
Favorite Matchups
If Fournette is inactive, we should all be in on Blake Bortles again. It’s almost as if they just throw out their old playbook and sling the ball all over the field. I like Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook too.
Matchups to Avoid
Despite getting the win last week, the Titans had no offensive success with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. The only Titan I would want to play is Dion Lewis. He is game script proof and could easily lead the team in targets if this one plays out how we think.
Bengals at Panthers
The Bengals have been one of the most impressive teams thus far. Andy Dalton has been efficient and accurate and the running game has been effective. I’m really excited to see how Cam Newton attacks this Bengals defense as well.
Favorite Matchups
McCaffrey is getting the usage we love to see, but he just hasn’t found the end zone yet. The Bengals have given up a massive 18 receptions to running backs through two games, so I expect McCaffrey’s passing game usage to give him a great floor.
A.J. Green is a mismatch nightmare these days. He now has four touchdowns through two games and is showing no signs of slowing down. The Panthers will be without cornerback Donte Jackson, leaving Green against Corn Elder for most of the game. Who?
The Panthers have quietly given up over 5 yards per carry. I like Giovanni Bernard’s skillset against that defensive front. When they leaned on Gio over the final five games of 2017, he finished as a top 25 running back every time.
Matchups to Avoid
Funchess saw a solid nine targets last week with Greg Olsen out, but he’ll be facing Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson, who are both off to a great start.
The Bengals have been weak against tight ends, but you can’t trust Ian Thomas. He had 10 receiving yards last week and dropped a wide open touchdown in the red zone. Hard to play him.
Broncos at Ravens
The Ravens just got embarrassed on Thursday night and have had an extra three days to prepare for this matchup. They are at home and are facing a Broncos team that needed a miracle drive to beat the Raiders.
Favorite Matchups
Once again, Emmanuel Sanders has a great matchup with another slot cornerback. But I’m on Demaryius Thomas in this one. He saw 11 targets to Sanders’ four last week. The efficiency should come, and the Ravens are still without their best perimeter corner, Jimmy Smith.
The Broncos perimeter corners have struggled as well, so I wouldn’t mind John Brown as a deep play here. If you’re feeling risky, Flacco could be a decent streaming option here as well.
Matchups to Avoid
Willy Snead has seen decent volume, but he’ll be facing off against the one bright spot in the Broncos secondary in Chris Harris.
Alex Collins continues to cede work to Buck Allen in the passing game and at the goal line. Allen seems to do this every season, so unless Ravens are a huge home favorite, I might be looking at people other than Collins.
Saints at Falcons
As an avid Saints fan living in Atlanta, I am excited that I will be able to attend this game. These are always close matchups and they have only gotten better in recent years.
Favorite Matchups
I’m back on Kamara despite the down week against the Browns. The Falcons just gave up 30 points to McCaffrey without a touchdown, so Kamara is my top player for this week.
Brees should absolutely carve up this Falcons team without Deion Jones and Keanu Neal. I wouldn’t mind starting ancillary pieces of this Saints offense, such as Ted Ginn or Ben Watson. The Falcons should focus their attention on Michael Thomas, leaving plus matchups for others.
Total gut call, but this feels like a 300 yard Julio game. Marshon Lattimore is having a rough start to the season and the Falcons will be airing it out.
Matchups to Avoid
You might want to leave Tevin Coleman on the bench. The Saints have shut down opposing running games two weeks in a row and have only allowed four receptions to running backs on the season.
Chargers at Rams
The Chargers were my dark horse Super Bowl team this year before Hunter Henry went down. Now without Joey Bosa, it looks like they are going to have a hard time stopping anyone.
Favorite Matchups
The Chargers seem to struggle with elite speed at receiver. They were destroyed by Tyreek Hill in week 1 and now will face Brandin Cooks and his surprisingly large 26 percent target share. Because of their inability to generate pressure without Bosa, I think Cooks will have plenty of deep shots.
I like Keenan Allen in the slot here. He’ll be avoiding the best part of the Rams secondary and has a size advantage on Nickell Robey-Coleman (6’2” vs. 5’7”). Phillip Rivers will be throwing a lot and he’ll likely want to avoid Talib and Peters on the outside.
Furthermore, Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler could see a good amount of targets. Negative game script always helps pass-catching backs, and they have both been used as such.
The Chargers linebackers generally struggle at stopping elite running backs. Gurley is going to be a top play in this one.
Matchups to Avoid
I don’t like either of the Chargers “Williams” receivers. They’ll have tough matchups in this one.
Cooper Kupp is primarily a red zone receiver, but the Chargers haven’t allowed a red zone touchdown outside of some cheap jet sweeps to the Chief’s speedsters. He’s a touchdown or bust kinda guy, and I think he’ll be busting in this one.
Bears at Cardinals
The first step to solving a problem is admitting you have one. Cardinals HC Steve Wilks addressed the David Johnson problem and I’m starting to have a little faith.
Favorite Matchups
The Bears defense is a lock for me. They were already a top 10 unit under Vic Fangio, and then they threw in Khalil Mack. They are just getting unreal production. Four turnovers and 10 sacks against Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers.
Jordan Howard is a top play in this one as well. He hasn’t approached 20 carries because of game script, but he has caught eight balls on the season. With that receiving production and the likely result of this game, I could see him reaching 25 touches.
Allen Robinson caught 10 balls last week and he should continue that success against the Cardinals. Patrick Peterson is playing more zone instead of shadowing this season, leaving opposing WR1s to feast.
I’m really hoping David Johnson sees a resurgence. Wilks’ comments are giving me faith. Ride it out and see what happens.
Matchups to Avoid
Larry Fitzgerald has been hamstrung this week. Pair that with Sam Bradford at QB and I think it is a recipe for disaster.
The Cardinals have only given up seven receptions to tight ends, so unless we hear that Matt Nagy is scheming up more shovel passes to Trey Burton, I’ll likely fade him this week.
Cowboys at Seahawks
The Cowboys look like they have a dominant pass rush, and that was without Randy Gregory, while the Seahawks look like they haven’t practiced pass protection since 2015.
Favorite Matchups
The Cowboys defense is only $2200 on DK and will likely be available on your waiver wire. They are getting Randy Gregory back and should get multiple sacks.
Ezekiel Elliot keeps producing steadily. They still have targeted Deonte Thompson more than him, so until that changes he won’t be the true bell-cow like we want. I still like his floor in this matchup though.
Will Dissly played more and caught another touchdown. The Cowboys had another mental lapse in the red zone and gave up a gimme score to Evan Engram last week, so I like Dissly’s chances at keeping his scoring streak going.
Matchups to Avoid
I don’t know what is going on with that Seattle backfield. HC Pete Carroll claims that Chris Carson is the starter but then was gassed with special teams. He played two special teams snaps the whole game. He is losing his team and these backs can’t be trusted.
The Cowboys receivers are just all over the place. Tavon Austin had a long touchdown, but he only saw two targets. None of them are usable.
Patriots at Lions
Watch Josh Gordon set an NFL record this game.
Favorite Matchups
Darius Slay will miss this game with a concussion and Chris Hogan just caught two touchdowns on the Jaguars. He has a much better matchup and should see good volume.
Gronk had a rough go last week and sustained an ankle injury. He’s off the medical report though and has a cupcake matchup. Multi-touchdown game in primetime?
Rex Burkhead has to fend off Sony Michel, but the Twitter world thinks he’s already lost his job. This would be so Belichickian to ride Burkhead in this one, and I think that’s what happens.
Matchups to Avoid
Stephon Gilmore has been on shadow duty for the first two weeks, but I have no idea whether he’ll be on Marvin Jones or Kenny Golladay. He is elite, so whoever he shadows should be downgraded.
The Lions have the least-creative running game in the NFL. Until Kerryon Johnson takes over as the workhorse, none of them are playable except Theo Riddick.
Steelers at Buccaneers
It looks like Fitzmagic is the real deal. This is an unprecedented situation. We have seen in the past a rookie take over for an absent veteran and keep the job, but we have never seen a young, perceived-franchise starting quarterback lose his job to a 34-year-old journeyman quarterback that is having the best fantasy start in NFL history. How can you justify taking Fitzmagic out? But then again, would you put your franchise on him for the next two years? So incredibly interesting to me.
Favorite Matchups
The Steelers just got lit up by Mahomes, and the only guy off to a better start than he is Fitzpatrick. You can confidently fire him up again.
It seems nobody can hang with Mike Evans or DeSean Jackson. This game should be a shootout and I want at least a piece of them.
The squeaky wheel gets the grease, and Antonio Brown has made quite the spectacle on the sideline and in the media. This is a blowup game for him against a depleted Tampa Bay secondary.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is the NFL leader in red zone targets. Even if Brown has a signature game, he could still be productive.
Matchups to Avoid
Jesse James might get phased out of the game plan with Vance McDonald back. McDonald is the better receiver and should step into a bigger role now that he is healthy.
As always, thank you for reading! This week’s preview was a little late due to unforeseen circumstances, but from now on I will try to get them up by Friday morning at the latest. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @jtaysmith16 and let me know if you have any feedback.
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