NFL Week 1 FanDuel Value Picks
Each week of this NFL season I’ll be bringing to you my best “value picks” on FanDuel to help you win money. I will be targeting lower-priced players that I feel have a great shot of hitting 3x value each week. Starting in week 2, we will quickly recap the prior week’s results to see what we can learn moving forward. Now, it’s time for the first value picks of the 2019 NFL season!
Quarterback:
Jacoby Brissett @ LAC ($6,000) – With the surprise news of Andrew Luck retiring comes potentiality great value week 1 for Colts’ QB Jacoby Brissett. He will be taking on the Chargers in LA who have recently placed star safety Derwin James on the Injured Reserve list. Brissett has proven he’s capable of leading an NFL offense in the past and has been getting all of the first-team reps through pre-season. He will likely be one of the highest owned QB’s this week as he is carrying the price tag of a backup.
Nick Foles vs KC ($6,500) – New Jaguars QB Nick Foles looks to make his debut at home against a Chiefs team coming off of an impressive 2018 season. As great as the Chiefs were last season (12-4, Lost in AFC Championship) they carried with them the 31st ranked passing defense. With Vegas predicting this game as the highest-scoring on the slate, look for Nick Foles to put up some points in this potential shootout.
Sam Darnold vs BUF ($6,700) – Heading into his Sophomore campaign, things are starting to look up for Jets QB Sam Darnold. With a new offensive-minded head coach in Adam Gase and new weapons in rested RB Le’Veon Bell and slot specialist WR Jamison Crowder, Darnold looks to make an immediate impact week 1 when he takes on the division rival Bills at home. The Bills were impressive defensively last season, however, I think the price for Darnold here is worth the risk at home. Darnold is coming off of a strong pre-season and his past numbers show he is a much better QB when playing at MetLife Stadium. Here are his Home-Away splits from last season:
Home: 6 games, 1612 pass yds, 12 TD, 7 Int, 89.3 QBR
Away: 7 games, 1253 pass yds, 5 TD, 8 Int, 65.9 QBR
I think Sam Darnold is a great play this week only needing 20 points to hit 3x value. Look for him to connect with his new weapons and find his way into the end zone multiple times vs Buffalo in week 1.
Running Back:
Chris Carson vs CIN ($6,600) – Carson will look to benefit greatly this season under the run-heavy scheme head coach Pete Carroll wants to implement. Not only that but this week Carson will be going up against a Bengals defense who ranked 30th last season against the rush. Backup RB Rashaad Penny will likely steal a few carries away, but Carson should have plenty of opportunities to feast in this great match up. I don’t see Carson’s price tag staying this low for long, so you may want to lock him in at this price while you can.
Mark Ingram @ MIA ($6,600) – Like Carson, Mark Ingram is in a very run-heavy system as well. He will be facing a Dolphins team who many predict will be among the leagues worst come seasons end. Miami ranked 31st against the rush last season allowing an average of 145 yards on the ground per game. They also gave up 17 rushing touchdowns in the 16 games played last season. Given the price, role, matchup, and run-heavy system, Mark Ingram should put up big numbers in week 1 versus the Dolphins.
Dalvin Cook vs ATL ($7,400) – Dalvin Cook comes into week 1 as the 10th highest priced RB on the slate but has one of the best matchups. The Falcons allowed nearly 125 rush yards and 1 rushing touchdown per game last season. At this price, he would need just over 22 FDP to reach the 3x value target we are looking for. Cook has looked great in pre-season, exploding for an 85-yard touchdown run against the Cardinals. There’s no reason to think he shouldn’t continue lighting it up in the regular season.
Love our content? Check out the GoingFor2 Live Podcast Network!
Wide Reciever:
Cole Beasley @ NYJ ($4,800) – The addition of Cole Beasley to the Bills offense was questioned by some at the time, but QB Josh Allen has shown great chemistry with the slot man throughout pre-season. In their victory over the Panthers, the two linked up for 5 catches for 44 yards in limited on-field action. Needing just over 14 FDP, Beasley should have enough opportunities to reach 3x value in week 1.
Jamison Crowder vs BUF ($5,400) – As I mentioned earlier, Jamison Crowder is one of Sam Darnold’s’ new weapons this season and should play a major role in the offense. Crowder should see the majority of the snaps out of the slot and has shown that he has the ability to do so at a high level this pre-season. Pairing Crowder and Darnold could be a cheap, sneaky stack, that would allow you to pay up for studs elsewhere.
Marquise Goodwin @ TB ($5,400) – Goodwin has a great match heading into week 1 going up against a Tampa defense that allowed 36 touchdowns through the air and ranked 31st defensively last season. The speed of Goodwin gives him big-play potential on every snap and at this price, I think you have to take him. The return of QB Jimmy Garoppolo should boost his value this season as well.
Tight End:
Will Dissly vs CIN ($4,000) – Dissly comes in as the lowest priced player of all of my picks. With that, of course, comes risk, but the matchup against a bad Bengals defense could make that risk worth it. The Bengals allowed a leagues worst 11 touchdowns to tight ends last season. Dissly only played in 4 games last season due to injury but amassed 8 catches for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns. If he can sneak into the end zone in week 1, that could be the difference-maker you need to start off the season on the right side of the money line.
Mark Andrews @ MIA ($5,400) – Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has shown great chemistry thus far with top TE Mark Andrews. Look for the run-heavy offensive attack to rely on the tight ends when the Ravens do put the ball in the air., especially in the red zone. The Ravens have a great matchup against a defense who struggled to stop anyone last season. Miami allowed opposing tight ends to score 9 touchdowns in the 2018 campaign. Look for Jackson to find Andrews often in week 1.
Defense:
Detroit Lions @ ARZ ($4,100) – The Detroit defense will head to Glendale, Arizona to take on #1 overall pick Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury in their regular-season debuts. This is a great opportunity for defensive-minded head coach Matt Patricia to take advantage of the lack of experience he will be facing at quarterback and head coach. The Cardinals offense has looked shaky this pre-season and with the Lions planning a run-heavy offensive attack, the offense will likely be on the field longer than in years past. This will benefit them on the defensive side of the ball. Detroit will look to rattle the rookie QB and force some big turnovers.
Seattle Seahawks vs CIN ($4,500)
The Seahawks host a Bengals team that many predict will be one of the cellar dwellers this season. The Bengals will be without star WR AJ Green in week 1, making a better case for the Seattle pick. The Seahawks likes to run the ball and kill the clock on the offensive side of the ball limiting their opponent’s chances, thus helping out the defense. Watch for Seattle to turn to their crowd and ride the home-field advantage to a great performance versus Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense.
Follow me @ColeWilczek on Twitter for more and be sure to check back next week. Good Luck!
ATTN Dynasty Commissioners: Do you want to do something cool for your league? How about a 1-hour live show dedicated to YOUR league? Team-by-team breakdowns, rankings, and more. For details and to book a show, visit: GoingFor2.com/plp.
