Week 11 of the NFL season is upon us and there are fourteen games to possibly wager your hard-earned money on. I could give you my picks for every game this week, but that is just not smart. Each week I will give you five or six games to bet on against the spread. There are games every week that are taken off the betting board for many reasons including injuries, weather, and even COVID-19.
This week there are some very intriguing and interesting matchups to consider betting on. We have the Pittsburgh Steelers playing to stay undefeated, the Titans and Ravens looking for a bounce-back win, and even the Jets trying to get their first win of the season. Let’s see if any of these teams made my Week 11 picks. Below I will tell you who you need to bet on to win against the spread in Week 11.
My Week 11 Picks
Philadelphia Eagles vs Cleveland Browns (-3)
In Week 10 the Cleveland Browns got Nick Chubb back from injury just in time to help them get the much-needed win against the Houston Texans. Chubb and the Browns other running back Kareem Hunt will look to dominate against a Philadelphia Eagles defense that ranks 26th in yards per game against the run this season. The Eagles are going to have a hard time handling the Browns who are ranked 4th in the league in team rushing yards per game. The Browns will look to get both Chubb and Hunt involved in the gameplan early in the game. Doing so will hopefully give them the lead early and help take control of the scoreboard from the opening kickoff. No, I do not think that Baker Mayfield is having a good season, however, Carson Wentz has been struggling when the Eagles have needed him the most. Yes, the Eagles have been ravaged by injuries all over the offensive side of the ball. And that is one of the reasons I am betting against them this week. Yes, the Eagles are in 1st place but that is only because they are in the putrid NFC East. The Eagles are ranked 24th in scoring in the NFL through Week 10. The Browns have a good defensive line, who will in my opinion get pressure all day long against the struggling Wentz.
Both teams are 3-6 against the spread so far this season. The Browns are 2-3 at home, however, the eagles are only 1-3 on the road ATS. If the Browns can take the lead early and control the clock they will be able to dictate how the game is played out. The Eagles will have a hard time handling Miles Garret and the rest of the Browns defensive line. MY PICK: Cleveland Browns -3.
(Update: Myles Garrett has been put on the reserve/Covid-19 list, and will miss Sunday’s game. I still pick the Cleveland Browns to cover -3.)
Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings (-7)
The Vikings started the season 1-4 but have won their last 3 games which were all against division opponents. They will look to continue their streak against a struggling Dallas Cowboys team who have Andy Dalton back at quarterback. But the spotlight to me is 100% on Vikings running back Dalvin Cook. Cook is having a great season leading the league with 954 yards and 12 touchdowns. Moreover, he is going against a Cowboys defense who is ranked 31st in yards per game against the rush. Being second worst in the league is not a good way to enter the game against a running back like Cook. The Vikings will run the ball as much as they possibly can but do not forget they also have Justin Jefferson and Adam Theilen at wide receiver. The Cowboys have been decent against the pass so far this season but they lost cornerback Trevon Diggs to a foot injury. Now on to the Andy Dalton lead Cowboys. Yes, I am exercising sarcasm, but the Vikings will load up the box on Ezekiel Elliott until Dalton shows he can do something in the air. The Cowboys passing game without the injured Dak Prescott has been inept at best. I think Elliott will have a decent game but the question is will it be enough to lead them to the victory on the road.
The Cowboys are 1-8 against the spread and 0-4 ATS on the road. The Vikings are 6-3 against the spread and 2-2 ATS at home. Kirk Cousins will use his receivers as much as he has to, but the key to the Minnesota Vikings offense will be Cook. The Vikings will get the lead and lean on Cook. The Cowboys just do not have enough firepower at quarterback or on defense to keep this game super close. MY PICK: Minnesota Vikings -7.
Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos (+3.5)
The Miami Dolphins are 3-0 since Tua Tagovailoa became the starting quarterback. If they can win on the road it will be their 4th win in a row. Tagovailoa has been successful even with a mediocre receiving core and a running back group that has had more turnovers than you see at a bakery. Salved Ahmed is going to be looking to repeat his breakout performance from last week. But I would be remised if I did not give the Dolphins defense some credit during their current winning streak. They have done their part in the last few games for the first time in a long while. Now to the other team in this game the Denver Broncos. The team is still not completely sure if quarterback Drew Lock will be active. If he is not active I am not sure how much of a drop off it will be, considering how he has played lately. Their rushing game can not be trusted to carry the Broncos this weekend. Jerry Judy, Tim Patrick, and the other receivers are going to have to step it up to keep them in the game. Head Coach Vic Fangio is a defensive-minded coach and this a game that the defense will need to be great for them to win. For them to win they are going to have to make Tua look like a rookie.
The Dolphins are an impressive 7-2 against the spread and 3-1 ATS at home. On the flip side, the Broncos are 5-4 against the spread and only 1-3 ATS at home. To win this game the Dolphins will have to continue to play like they have the past couple of weeks. The Broncos on the other hand will have to play excellent defense and get at least 2 turnovers. Who is going to take this game? MY PICK: Dolphins -3.5.
Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
The Indianapolis Colts are coming off their most impressive win in Tennessee last Thursday night. This game is a battle of great defense against great offense when it comes to the passing game. The Green Bay Packers have the 6th ranked passing game, but the Colts have the 2nd ranked pass defense. To me, this is going to be one of the biggest battles in determining the winner of this game. The Packers are getting Allen Lazard back from injury this week which will help Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. If the Colts force the Packers to run the game, then they might be in trouble because the Colts have the 3rd ranked rush defense. Now let’s get to the Colts offense, Philip Rivers is having a decent year but can he win a crucial game like this. Rivers has thrown for 11 touchdowns and 2,395 yards in 9 games so far. Rivers has had to lean on his running backs in the passing game with an oft-injured receiving core. All three of their top receivers and both of their top tight ends have missed at least one game. The Colts have used a running back by committee system all season long. The Colts are currently ranked 20th in rushing, however, the Packers defense is ranked 12th against the run. To me, the two keys will be the performances of the Packers passing game and the Colts running game.
The Packers are 6-3 against the spread and an impressive 4-1 ATS on the road. The Colts are 5-4 against the spread and 3-1 ATS at home. These are two good teams and I am expecting a close game like the spread predicts. Aaron Rodgers will be able to take advantage of enough opportunities to put the Packers in a position for an upset win on the road. MY PICK: Green Bay Packer +1.5.
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Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)
Both the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are both coming impressive divisional wins. The key in this game very well could be which quarterback performs better because both teams have very stout run defenses. The Rams are ranked 5th against the run but the Buccaneers are leading the entire NFL. Who will do better if the run games get stifled? The Rams offense is usually only successful when their play-action pass game is working. But remember the Buccaneers passing game is tops in the league. If they have to rely on Jared Goff dropping back and throwing the ball they will not succeed. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods can be reliable but I just don’t think the game script will be in the Rams favor. The problem for the Rams is even though they have a good defense the Buccaneers have Tom Brady. He can make everybody around him better and to win a game with his arm even when his team has no running game. Tom Brady has too many weapons at his disposal to not succeed when he has the time. Yes, the Rams have Aaron Donald but if the offensive line can give Brady a little bit of time. he can and will succeed on Monday night.
The Rams are 5-4 against the spread and 2-3 ATS on the road. The Buccaneers are 5-5 against the spread, but they are 3-1 ATS at home. I think both teams will have a really hard time running the ball. The Buccaneers defense will try to make the Rams one-dimensional and not let them get going with their play action game. Tom Brady will make enough plays to win by a touchdown. MY PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.
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