Nobody will ever be perfect at betting the NFL, and that definitely is true for me as well. In Week 12, I went 2-3 in the games I picked. Unfortunately, I picked the Broncos to cover the spread before finding out that they would be without their quarterbacks. SO if you take that game out, I was an even 2-2. I have picked five of my best bets to win against the spread in Week 13. Check out below my picks.
MY WEEK 13 PICKS
Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans (-6)
Both the Cleveland Browns and the Tennessee Titans are 8-3 and are coming off road wins in week 12. The Browns will travel to Tennessee to see if they can continue their impressive season. The Browns are leading the NFL in rushing offense. However, the Titans are close behind ranked second in the NFL. Both of the team’s defenses are ranked in the middle of the NFL. What does this mean? It means that I expect Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry to both have impressive games. Chubb also has Kareem Hunt in the backfield to help out the rushing game for the Browns. But I still expect the Titans to have a good day on the ground, and Henry should have another 100+ yard game.
Both teams are more impressive on the ground than in the passing game, but that doesn’t mean that the passing game won’t play a factor in the game’s outcome. The Browns are the 30th ranked passing game in the NFL. And when you have a game between two highly ranked running games, the passing games can be important to the game’s outcome. Quarterback Baker Mayfield will need to step up and have a successful game to lead his team to a road victory. He has weapons in Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper to help him in the air. To me, the Titans are a better passing team, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that always leads to a victory. The Titans Ryan Tannehill has been playing consistently and doing enough to win the last few weeks. He has A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and Anthony Firksker as outside weapons. One concern I have is as long as the Titans have offensive line issues, Jonnu Smith will be used more as a blocking tightened than the passing target that he can be.
The Browns are 4-7 against the spread and 1-4 ATS on the road. The Titans are 5-6 against the spread and an even 3-3 ATS at home. In the Titans last two games, they have won ATS by 12 points, respectively. Since I believe both running games will have successful games. The key will be the two defenses and the passing games. I think Tannehill has enough weapons on the outside, and A.J. Brown should have a good game as well. The Titans are currently on a roll and will look continue the trend in Week 13. MY PICK: Tennessee Titans -6.
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Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (-3)
This game against the Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears is an intriguing matchup to me. The Bears had a hot start and have cooled off, and the Lions could never get their season rolling. This will be the first game for the Lions after firing head coach Matt Patricia. The major key for both teams will be the quarterback play. The Lions Matthew Stafford has not been good this season. He has 2876 yards and 18 TD. The unsettling stat to me is the fact that Stafford has been sacked 31 times. That is even more unsettling knowing a Khalil Mack led pass rush is waiting for you on Sunday. For the Bears, they are starting Mitchell Trubsiky for the second straight game. After starting the season 3-0, Trubisky was replaced by Foles. He didn’t have an impressive game in his first game back, which could easily continue this week. He had three TD, but two interceptions offset them.
The Lions have been without Kenny Golladay for the last four games. They have missed him dearly and have lost three of those games. But they still have Marvin Jones Jr. and T.J. Hockensen as targets for Stafford. Hockenson has been having a very productive season, and even against the Bears defense, I still think he will be productive in this matchup. Also, running back D’Andre Swift should be back after missing last week with a concussion. It will be an added attack that will surely help the Lions offense. Now let’s discuss the Bears weapons. Allen Robinson is quarterback proof but has shown that he is personally better off with Trubisky as his quarterback. His two highest reception totals have both been with Trubisky at quarterback. At wide receiver, they also have Anthony Miller and Darnell Mooney. David Montgomery has struggled almost all season long. That is until last week when he had a breakout game. For the Bears to have any chance at beating the Lions, Montgomery must have a productive game. If he doesn’t, the Lions defense can attack Trubisky, which is not good for the Bears.
The Lions are 4-7 against the spread and are 3-3 ATS on the road. The Bears are 5-6 against the spread and 2-3 on the road. As I previously mentioned, I believe that the quarterback play will be a huge key in this matchup. Will Trubisky or Stafford have the better game? If I had to guess, I would say Stafford. But the biggest thing to me will be the coaching change in Detroit. The Lions will look to come out strong like most teams do the game after losing their coach. But will the lions do enough to win the game? MY PICK: Detroit Lions +3.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New York Jets (+9)
Both the Las Vegas Raiders and the New York Jets are coming off terrible losses in Week 12. The Raiders are still in the playoff hunt and need this win in a bad way. The Jets quarterback Sam Darnold came back from injury last week and had a rough game with only 197 yards. The Jets receivers will look to have a good game against a struggling Raiders pass defense. Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder are two veterans that will need to have good chemistry with Darnold to have a chance at victory. The Raiders Derrick might have had one of the worst games of his career. Against the Falcons, he had 215 yards and 4 interceptions. But the winless Jets could be the perfect bounce back game for Carr. They have wide receivers Nelson Agholar and Henry Ruggs but tightened Darren Waller will need to have a good game.
Both running games have question marks that make me nervous as a bettor. Josh Jacobs has an injured ankle and still isn’t a full participant at practice. They do have Devontae behind him as well. On the other hand, the Jets are going with the veteran Frank Gore and the rookie La Michel Perine. The Jets rushing game is ranked 27th in the NFL. It doesn’t help that their passing game is the worst in the league, but that is just the facts.
The Raiders are 7-4 against the spread and 4-2 ATS on the road. The Jets are against the spread 3-8 and 2-4 ATS in home games. The Jets are not a good team and are just hoping they get the first overall pick in the NFL draft. The Raiders need this win a lot more than the Jets. If they want to stay in the playoff hunt, they will need to win every game they are supposed to win. I don’t believe that the Raiders are quite ready for a playoff run, and the Jets need to win soon if they don’t want to go 0-16. Raiders will win this game, but will they cover? Here is my bold pick of the week. MY PICK New York Jets +9.
Embed from Getty ImagesLos Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals (+3)
Both the Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals are both coming off devastating losses last week. Both Jared Goff and Kyler Murray had horrendous performances in Week 12. Murray still shows signs of a shoulder injury he got during the Week 11 game against the Seahawks. He will have to perform well against a tough pass rush if the Cardinals will have a chance to win. With Deandre Hopkins being covered by Jalen Ramsey, the Cardinals will look for wide receivers Andy Isabela and Christian Kirk to step up.
If Larry Fitzgerald is activated after being out with COVID-19, he will also play a decent role in this game. Unfortunately, they are going up against a Rams pass dense that is ranked 3rd in the NFL. Goff, on the other hand, has been very inconsistent all season long. If the offensive line can give him time to get the ball to Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, the Rams will have a real chance of pulling off a road win.
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The battle of these two running games is a very intriguing matchup. The Rams are ranked 9th in the NFL, and the Cardinals are ranked 4th. The difference between the two is that the Cardinals have a quarterback in Murray who is just as dominant with his legs as he is with his arm. Running back Kenyan Drake has been impressive the last couple of games, but I am not sure if that will continue. The Rams have Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson. However, last week rookie Cam Akers finally showed a glimpse of what he can do in the future. The biggest difference in the running game will be the defenses. The Cardinals are only ranked 21st against the run. However, the Rams are 4th best against the run in the NFL.
The Rams are 6-5 against the spread and 3-3 ATS on the road. The Cardinals are 5-6 against the spread and 2-3 ATS in games at home. Another key battle to this game will be the head coaches. Klif Kingbury is 0-2 against the Rams so far in his early coaching career. Conversely, the Rams head coach Sean McVay is a whopping 6-0 against the Cardinals. McVay will lean on the running game and Aaron Donald to lead the defense to a road victory. MY PICK: Los Angeles Rams -3.
Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1)
Note: This game is being played in Arizona due to COVID-19 regulations in Santa Clara County where the 49ers play.
The Buffalo Bills and the San Francisco 49ers are both coming off wins in Week 12. Both teams have dealt with injuries, but nobody has dealt with as many injuries as the 49ers this season. The 49ers are playing Jimy Garappolo at quarterback. He is a game manager at best. Last week they got Deebo Samuel back from injury and hope to get Brandon Ayiuck back for Week 13. They definitely need the two wide receivers to step up since they are still without George Kittle.
The 49ers are using Samuel as a jack of all trades, and it is finally working. Because Garappolo is not a downfield passer, they will use the running backs in the passing game as well. But don’t count out the Bills Josh Allen. The Bills just had to put Jon Brown on the IR, and we will have to wait to see the effects on the offense. The Bills will look for wide receivers Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and rookie Gabriel Davis to perform on Monday Night Football. Allen is having a good year but will try and rebound from the off game he had last week.
The running backs for the 49ers might be the most banged up position in the entire league. Almost every running back on the team has missed at least one game. They will be relying on Raheem Mostert to run the ball. They do also have Jerrick McKinnon and Jymichel Hasty in the backfield as well. The Bills, on the other hand, have a one-two punch with Devin Singletary and Zach Moss. The quarterback Allen can also run the ball, especially down in the red zone.
The Bills are 6-5 against the spread and 2-3 ATS in road games. The 49ers are 5-6 against the spread and are 1-4 ATS at home. The 49ers have had injuries on both sides of the ball that have cost them games in the past. If Allen has a good game, it could be too much for the 49ers to handle. Remember that this “home” game for the 49ers is in Arizona. This is also the same stadium that the Bills played in a few weeks ago. Will this matter? I am not sure, but I am banking Allen to outplay Garapallo. MY PICK: Buffalo Bills +1.
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