Let’s face it the firepower of the NFL West is missing in the East. There are fantasy gems in the East of course…but will they be hampered by new coaches and new offensive schemes?
Dallas Cowboys
There is something to be said for a team that appears so stacked with offensive talent. There is a change in head coach with Jason Garrett out and Mike McCarthy in, while the offensive coordinator Kellen Moore stays put.
Ezekiel Elliot, Running Back: stats 2019: 301 rushing attempts, 1357 yards, 12 touchdowns, 4.5 average rushing yards per game; 71 targets, 54 receptions, two touchdowns, seven drops, 16.1 average fantasy points per game
There is never any doubt that Elliott will be a top-five running back. There is some trepidation that he will be less productive in PPR formats.
Last season Elliott witnessed his targets decrease from 98 (in 2018) to 71 (in 2019). This season he now has CeeDee Lamb in for a target share.
On the plus note, Elliot is the only game in town in that backfield. He will get his touches. He will make the most of them. Just temper your expectations. Remember head coach Mike McCarthy has only had offenses rank inside the top 15 in rushing attempts four times in 13 seasons.
Dak Prescott, Quarterback: stats 2019: 596 passing attempts, 65.1 completion percentage, 4902 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, 11 interceptions; 52 rushing attempts, 277 yards, 3 touchdowns, 21.1 average fantasy points per game
Prescott is playing for the money. Unable to reach a deal with him the Cowboys placed a franchise tender on him. He is playing for the money in an offense that is built to have him succeed.
Last season Prescott had career highs in attempts, touchdown passes, and yards per attempt. He finished the season with a 65.1 completion percentage. Those stats were with Randall Cobb and Jason Witten. No disrespect to either but Lamb has to be seen as an improvement over Cobb. And Blake Jarwin who averaged 8.9 yards per target is at the very least equivalent to last year’s Witten.
Amari Cooper, Wide Receiver: stats 2019: 119 targets, 79 receptions, 1189 yards, eight touchdowns, 15.1 yards per reception, eight drops, 10.5 average fantasy points per game
This was the proverbial coin toss. There is no doubt the Cowboys will go 11-man personnel this season. Last season the Cowboys ran an 11-man on 49 percent of their offensive plays. They also ran the seventh most offensive plays.
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Now Cooper is wildly erratic and match-up dependent. He was 43rd among wide receivers in red-zone targets BUT top 10 in touchdowns. Last season he was on the field for 75 percent of the offensive snaps and saw a 19 percent target share.
Why have him here? I don’t see Jerry Jones paying out $60 million guaranteed and not over-utilize the player. But again this player is match-up dependent and will see some of the best defensive backs in the form of Darius Slay (who has successfully shut him down), Jalen Ramsey, Marcus Peters, Richard Sherman and Steven Nelson.
The hope is that teams will not be able to concentrate solely on Cooper thus giving him a little more room to work.
But then again you couldn’t go wrong with Michael Gallup or Lamb. Just remember no preseason games so rookie wide receivers may need a little more “getting acquainted” time.
New York Giants
Saquon Barkley, Running Back: stats 2019: 217 rushing attempts, 1003 yards, six touchdowns, 4.6 rushing average per game; 73 targets, 52 receptions, eight drops, 14.8 average fantasy points per game
I had Barkley last season. By the time he recovered from his high ankle sprain and balled out in the playoffs, I had missed the playoffs. But I’m not bitter. Barkley is a stud.
Just a side note, according to FantasyDataNFL.com there has been a different fantasy RB1 every year since 2003.Â
Anyway there is no reason to believe Barkley will not return to his 2018 ways. The Giants’ offense runs through Barkley. And now with Jason Garrett the offensive coordinator there is no reason to believe any different.
When Garrett was coordinator under Wade Phillips, from 2007-12, Garrett’s offenses never ranked outside the top ten for yards per game. His running backs had four seasons with top-ten rushing production. Garrett runs a type of the Air Coryell which spreads the defenses vertically. Also good, because last season Barkley faced a loaded box on 11.52 percent of his rushing attempts. If the defenses are spread it will be harder for them to do that.
And yes, the Giants’ offensive line was 25th in run blocking efficiency per Football Outsiders. This year they drafted left tackle Andrew Thomas fourth overall, acquired Sane Lemieux who should be competing for starting center and tackle Matt Peart. It should be better.
Just keep in mind, when Barkley got better over the last three weeks he had 63 rushes, 393 yards, four touchdowns while being targeted for 11 receptions, 146 yards and one more touchdown.
He’s back.
Evan Engram, Tight End: stats 2019: 68 targets, 44 receptions, 467 yards, three touchdowns, 10.6 yards per receptions, two drops, 8.2 average fantasy points per game
The issue with Engram is injuries. He has played in 34 out of 48 games. Last season he only played in eight games and finished as TE17.
He led the team in targets last season. And this season he will go up against four of the worst fantasy defenses against tight ends last year: Arizona Cardinals (32nd but they added Isaiah Simmons so should be a little better), Seattle Seahawks (31st), Dallas Cowboys (30th) and Washington (29th).
Engram is returning from Lisfranc surgery in December. And there will be no preseason to monitor his progress.
Engram is not only the best receiver on the Giants he is a mismatch for defenses. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, his current ADP is 6.08, the eighth pick of the sixth round. That’s good value.
Daniel Jones, Quarterback: stats 2019: 459 passing attempts, 61.9 percent completion percentage, 3027 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 12 interceptions; 45 rushing attempts, 279 yards, two touchdowns, 16.5 average fantasy points per game
I know Danny Dimes can be incredibly inconsistent. He had 11 fumbles in 13 games. But he also scored 35 fantasy points in four of 12 games. And he rushed for 279 yards and two touchdowns.
Sports Info Solutions has him as the NFL’s most accurate deep ball thrower on passes with 20+ air yards.
He has an improved offensive line. Seemingly healthy players in Engram and Barkley, not to mention Golden Tate, and Darius Slayton for his weapons.
Jones can be a sneaky sleeper. However, be warned he may start out slow as he will face the Steelers, Bears and San Francisco 49ers defenses right off the bat.
Philadelphia Eagles
Carson Wentz, Quarterback: stats 2019: 607 passing attempts, 63.9 completion percentage, 4039 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, seven interceptions; 62 rushing attempts, 243 yards, one touchdown, 17.2 average fantasy points per game
Wentz gets a bad rap as being “injury-prone”. Actually, in his four-year career, he has only missed eight regular-season games. So let’s squash that and talk about what he did last year.
Wentz completed a career-high in passing yards last season with 4039 yards. He did this even though his wide receiver corps was non-existent. DeSean Jackson missed the entire season, Alshon Jeffery missed nearly the entire season and Nelson Agholor‘s knee injury hobbled him for most of the season.
No wide receiver had more than 500 receiving yards, yet Wentz ranked ninth in the NFL in passing yards last season. Wentz is also the holder of another dubious title, he led the NFL inaccurately thrown deep passes that went incomplete.
This season Wentz has a healthy Jackson, newly acquired Marquise Goodwin and rookie Jalen Reagor. The Eagles are going for downfield speed. There is also Miles Sanders, Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert for short to intermediate passes.
Wentz can be considered a semi-dual threat quarterback. He doubled his rushing attempts from 2018 to 2019, but there is an effort for him to run less. Still, Wentz is a top-five quarterback if his receiving corps stays healthy and a top-10 if they don’t.
Miles Sanders, Running Back: stats 2019: 179 rushing attempts, 818 yards, three touchdowns, 4.6 rushing average per game; 63 targets, 50 receptions, three touchdowns, two drops, 10.5 fantasy points per game
Sanders’ rookie season blossomed from week 11-16. His numbers made him RB3 averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game. His fantasy points were dependent on the receiving game.
Two things: one the Eagles are known as a running back by committee team. However, Doug Pederson has expressed “confidence” in Sanders; and Jordan Howard is gone. So Sanders should be the lead runner out of the Eagles backfield. But his target share will be diminished by a healthy receiving corps.
Still in fantasy opportunity is key and Sanders will have plenty of opportunities to replicate his late rookie surge from last season.
Zac Ertz, Tight End: stats 2019: 135 targets, 88 receptions, 916 yards, six touchdowns, 10.4 yards per receptions, nine drops, 8.5 average fantasy points per game
Ertz is Wentz’s security blanket. There is some concern that Goedert will take away some of Ertz’s prior thunder. But even last season with Goedert in the fold, Ertz was TE4 in 2019.
Also since the pairing of Ertz and Wentz began, Ertz has been targeted 100+ times every season. They have chemistry and it is unlikely that the in-coming weapons at Wentz’s disposal will alter that drastically.
Washington
Derrius Guice, Running Back: stats 2019: ( 5 games): 42 rushing attempts, 245 yards, two touchdowns, 5.8 average rushing yards per game; nine targets, seven receptions, one touchdown, two drops, 10.1 average fantasy points per game
Let’s face it the only thing holding Guice back from being a top-five running back is Guice, he has played in five NFL games out of 32.
If he can play the entire season there are good things ahead, in the five games that he played in 2019, he averaged 5.8 average yards per five games.
Can he stay on the field? There is a chance that Guice is put on a snap count. Washington only ran the ball 22.2 times per game last season. That was the second-lowest mark in the league. And now they have a new offensive coordinator, Scott Turner, and new head coach Ron Rivera.
The running back depth chart is deep in Washington. They currently have Adrian Peterson, Peyton Barber, JD McKissic, and newly drafted Antonio Gibson. There is a legitimate question as to whether this new coaching staff will hang onto Guice. The better question is will they put him on the field to see what he can do? That is a scenario that looks good for fantasy players…unless he gets injured again.
Terry McLaurin, Wide Receiver: stats 2019: 93 targets, 58 receptions, 919 yards, seven touchdowns, 15.8 yards per receptions, six drops, 9.6 average fantasy points per game
McLaurin is the only legitimate game in Washington. Last season in a poor Washington offense he averaged 15.8 yards per reception and had a 65.6 percent catch rate. McLaurin is a deep-threat on a team that lost Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis, which also makes him the number one target.
The downside is that Washington’s offense doesn’t project to be a prolific offense. The upside is that there is a new coaching regime and Haskins has a year under his belt to get more comfortable playing in the NFL.
Dwayne Haskins Jr., Quarterback: stats 2019: 9 games/started 7, 203 passing attempts, 58.6 completion percentage, 1365 yards, seven touchdowns, seven interceptions; 20 rushing attempts, 101 rushing yards, 8.5 fantasy points per game
Not making excuses, but Haskins got thrown in last season with a staff that wasn’t exactly sure he was their quarterback. He also had to deal with a porous offensive line, that gave up 29 sacks in his seven starts.
Haskins slowly got better. In his last two games, he had two touchdowns and no interceptions.  This summer he has been working out with McLaurin and Antonio Brown.
Haskins is a wait and see prospect. He also is going to be match-up quarterback. You aren’t going to draft him as your number one quarterback but at his current ADP you can draft him and count on him in a two-quarterback league and match-ups.
Come talk at me on Twitter @neverenoughglt
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