Happy Wednesday everyone, we are back again with more sneaky big questions. Today, we’re checking out the AFC North, a division that boasted three playoff teams in 2020. Next week, we’ll jump conferences and check out the NFC North. Enjoy!
Cincinnati Bengals
Q: Why aren’t we talking about how badly Burrow struggled with the deep ball?
I really had to narrow down which question I wanted to focus on when discussing the 2021 Bengals. Are they rushing Joe Burrow back too soon? Why exactly did they pass on Penei Sewell? Is Burrow secretly looking for his next team already? There are a ton of question marks for this Cincinnati team, but I wanted to hone in on Burrow’s poor downfield passing last year. Coming out of LSU, Burrow’s arm strength was never his selling point. LSU’s offense was designed for a lot of YAC plays and their roster had so many talented playmakers that Burrow didn’t need to go downfield much. Burrow excels at short and intermediate passing, but to keep pace with such high-flying offenses in today’s NFL there has to be some semblance of a downfield attack.
During his rookie season, Burrow completed just 7 of 40 passes(17.5%) of 20+ yards downfield. That percentage was dead last in the league behind the likes of Mitch Trubisky, Drew Lock, and Andy Dalton. Most believe that Ja’Marr Chase was selected to help Burrow in this area, but reports from the training camp have said that Chase is really struggling with separation. Of course, none of this matters unless Burrow is healthy and I really hope the Bengals aren’t rushing him back too quickly after that gruesome knee injury.
Baltimore Ravens
Q: Could Lamar Jackson eclipse 10,000 career rushing yards?
After Baltimore’s historic 2019 season on the ground, most analysts and experts assumed the Ravens would try and mix up their playcalling with a more balanced approach. Wrong. The Ravens averaged 191.2 YPG on the ground in 2020, 23.8 more yards/game than the next highest team(Tennessee). Baltimore went back to the well last year with their ground attack and made the playoffs for a third straight season. Now, Lamar Jackson is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons on the ground, which has never been done by a quarterback in NFL history. Jackson has 37 career starts and 2,906 rushing yards to show for it, an average of 78.5 YPG.
It comes as no surprise that Michael Vick holds the record for most career rushing yards by a QB with 6,109. Lamar is already halfway there and he’s only been the full-time starter for just TWO seasons. There’s no question that Lamar will zoom past Vick’s record in no time…but is it possible that Jackson could join Hall of Fame running backs in the 10,000+ club? Jackson would have to average about 700 rushing yards over the next 10 years to join an elite company, but I really think he can do it.
The main concern, of course, when chasing this mark is his health. Lamar has yet to miss a game due to injury, and that’s pretty incredible considering how often he tucks it and runs. God forbid he were to sustain a lower-body injury, Harbaugh would have to consider limiting his rushing attempts and turn him into more of a pocket passer, much like the Seahawks did with Russell Wilson. Most running backs who eclipse the 10,000-yard threshold are in the Hall of Fame, so it’s crazy to think that you could take away Lamar’s passing stats, and he could still get into the Hall with his rushing stats alone.
Cleveland Browns
Q: Can we just admit that the Odell trade was a complete disaster?
I remember where I was when I got the push notification that the Browns had traded for OBJ. The Browns sent over Jabrill Peppers, Kevin Zeitler, and a 1st rounder(turned into Dexter Lawrence), WHILE also absorbing Odell’s $95 million contract. Of course, you’d love to have a playmaker like Odell Beckham on your team, but at this point, the Browns absolutely lost that trade. Many in the media have already suggested that Odell and his demand for the ball actually hurts the Brown’s offense, so let’s look at some stats. Odell tore his ACL against the Bengals game in week 7 during the 1st quarter, so here is a quick peek at Baker Mayfield’s splits with and without their star receiver.
With Odell: 4-2 QB Record 1,095 Passing yards 10 TD 6 INT 60.5% Comp 6.4 Y/A
Without Odell: 7-3 QB Record 2,468 Passing yards 16 TD 2 INT 63.9% Comp 7.8 Y/A
Now here’s a look at the Browns total offensive stats splits:
With Odell: 27.2 PPG 182.5 Pass Yds/G 169.5 Rush Yds/G 39.1% 3rd down conv
Without Odell: 24.5 PPG 246.8 Pass Yds/G 135.7 Rush Yds/G 48.7% 3rd down conv
Now, numbers don’t always tell the full story and there are a ton of factors at play, but the one stat sticks out like a sore thumb. When Odell went down the Browns averaged 64 more passing yards a game in his absence. Baker’s numbers also improved in every single category most likely due to the fact that he wasn’t forcing throws to Beckham, whom we all know demands targets. Obviously, I think Odell helps any team when he is healthy. However, at the price tag of $19 million/year coupled with them having to give away assets…the Browns definitely took an L on this deal.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Q: How does a smart organization like the Steelers allow their entire offensive line to get completely dismantled?
Ever since their inception, the Pittsburgh Steelers have always been one of the smartest and most forward-thinking organizations in the NFL. They’re tied with New England for the most Super Bowls, they have had a total of 24 Hall of Fame inductees, and they haven’t had a losing season since 2003. Now, there really aren’t too many question marks for this Steeler team heading into the 2021 season. They have one of the best coaches in the league in Mike Tomlin, they have a great supporting cast around Big Ben, and their defense will most likely be one of the best in the NFL again next year. The biggest gray area for the 2021 Steelers revolves around the new faces on their offensive line.
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It’s not an opinion… it’s a fact: the game of football is won and lost in the trenches and if you don’t believe me, go watch the Chiefs-Bucs Super Bowl highlights again. Throughout the 2010s, Pittsburgh has consistently had one of the best O-lines in all of football, which can explain their seven playoff appearances over the last decade. The Steelers only retained one starting offensive lineman from last year’s team, as Maurkice Pouncey retired, Alejandro Villanueva signed with the Ravens, Matt Feiler went to Los Angeles, and they let David DeCastro walk in free agency.
Kevin Colbert has proven to be one of the best GMs in the NFL, which leaves me scratching my head as to why he just sort of punted on the O-line this offseason. It really scares me when teams try and patch together their line in free agency and the draft, but Pittsburgh is basically just promoting a bunch of 2nd stringers to starters and crossing their fingers. The Steelers have the defense and the skill position players to make a deep playoff run, but you have to worry about the lack of chemistry with their unit up front.
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