What is going on everybody! We have reached the penultimate division for our sneaky big questions series. Today we are tackling the AFC South, a division that has three new starting quarterbacks. Next week we will finish up the series with the NFC East. Enjoy!
Jacksonville Jaguars
Q: How foolish will GM Trent Baalke feel if a contending team’s QB1 goes down?
Coming out of Washington State as a 6th round pick, expectations were low for Gardner Minshew. In his first-ever NFL game, Minshew came in for the injured Nick Foles and went 22/25 for 279 yards and 2 TD against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs. In 23 career games, Minshew has a 63% comp rate, 5,530 passing yards, with a 37-11 TD: INT ratio. Minshew may technically be a backup, but he’s been a productive QB in Jacksonville despite having a horrendous offensive line and a lackluster supporting cast. I legitimately believe that Minshew is better than about 6-7 quarterbacks that’ll be starting in week 1… having Minshew sit on the sidelines is a waste of time for both him and the Jaguars.
Now, the internet has already roasted the Jaguars for garnering just a 6th round pick for Minshew and I will hop on that train as well. Back in 2016, Teddy Bridgewater suffered that brutal leg injury in mid-August with the Super Bowl contending Vikings. The Vikings were not going to throw their season away, so they traded their 2017 1st round pick to the Eagles for Sam Bradford. I can’t believe Jacksonville jumped the gun and didn’t wait this situation out. If a win-now contender like the Browns, Rams, or Ravens lost their QB1, the Jaguars would be the first team on the horn. How did Trent Baalke get back the same draft capital they originally spent on him? I believe that in a new setting, under the right coaching, Minshew could lead a team to the playoffs. That trade was completely blasphemous on Jacksonville’s part.
Houston Texans
Q: Why are the DeShaun Watson trade rumors starting to swirl again?
From 2015-2019 the Houston Texans won the AFC South division title four times in five seasons. Then 2020 happened. Bill O’Brien traded DeAndre Hopkins for David Johnson’s terrible contract + a 2nd rounder, Houston forfeited the 3rd overall pick in the 2021 draft to Miami, and DeShaun Watson racked up 22 civil lawsuits for sexual assault. OUCH.
The Texans are the laughing stock of the NFL right now, and every single mock draft for next year has the Texans slotted in for the 1st overall pick. The Texans, the media, and Roger Goodell haven’t given us a straightforward answer on what the future looks like for Watson in 2020 and going forward. He’s practicing with the team, but the trade rumors have started to pick up again in the last few days. Teams like the Dolphins, Eagles, and Broncos have all expressed interest, but why now?
With the season only 10 days away, the Texans obviously need to figure out a game plan. Do these other teams know something we don’t? Fans have been kept in the dark for months, and Houston hasn’t officially named who will be starting under center next Sunday. Reports say that the teams interested in Watson are trying to negotiate clauses in the trade that would negate said trade if he is found guilty of the charges. I really wish we had more information on this story. This has been one of the weirdest player sagas we’ve seen in recent years. I think I speak for all NFL fans when I say that I’m extremely curious to see how it plays out.
Indianapolis Colts
Q: Is this team just content hovering around .500 every year?
Colts fans had the rug completely pulled out from under them during that fateful preseason game in late August of 2019. Andrew Luck broke Twitter by announcing his retirement when Indianapolis had Super Bowl aspirations that year. To have your All-Pro QB hang up the cleats just weeks before the start of the season has to be absolutely demoralizing. Since then, the Colts have tried to patch together a playoff roster with Jacoby Brissett, a 38-year-old Phillip Rivers, and now Carson Wentz.
Wentz had quite the forgettable season in 2020. He averaged an abysmal 6.0 Y/A, went 3-8-1 as a starter, and led the league in interceptions…WHILE playing in just 12 games. The Colts are still hanging on to a shred of hope that Frank Reich can regain some of that 2017 magic and turn Wentz back into the MVP candidate he once was. Now, I can’t really fault Indy for still believing in a quarterback that led his team to the playoffs three years in a row. What I can fault them on is giving up valuable picks for one of the league’s worst starting quarterbacks. Wentz’s contract is far from being an asset, yet Indianapolis still dished out a 3rd rounder AND if Wentz plays 75% of snaps, then the conditional 2nd round pick turns into a 1st! Wentz has a dead cap hit of $35.4 million this year and $15 million in 2022, so the Colts are stuck with him until 2023.
The problem I have with this trade is the fact that Carson Wentz isn’t that missing piece that will vault a good roster to the next level. Can you make the playoffs with him under center? Sure. Is he going to lead this team to deep playoff runs against the likes of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill, or Lamar Jackson. HELL NO. My belief is that owner Jim Irsay just doesn’t ever want to see his team attempt a full-scale rebuild. They continue to try and put a bandaid on the quarterback position and hover around .500 every year. Since Andrew Luck left, this team has never been taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender and 2021 is no different. The Jaguars would never have traded Minshew within the division, but this team could have just signed Mitch Trubisky for a couple million without having to give up picks. At this stage in their careers, Trubisky is probably the better quarterback anyway.
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Tennessee Titans
Q: Could Tennessee be the 1 seed in the AFC?
With the added playoff team last year, there is now only one team that clinches a first-round bye from each conference…a change that I absolutely despise. The likely culprits of the #1 seed in the AFC this year are clearly the Bills and the Chiefs, but are we sleeping on the Titans for that coveted first-round bye? One of the biggest losses this offseason was OC Arthur Smith getting poached by the Falcons, but the Titans got a lot better this spring by adding Julio Jones, Bud Dupree, Caleb Farley, and Janoris Jenkins. The loss of Arthur Smith cannot be understated, but there is a solid chance that the Titans go 6-0 within their division next year.
Tennessee also has matchups against the Jets and Dolphins, but the rest of their schedule is pretty brutal. They have games @SEA, vs. BUF, vs. KC, @LAR, @PIT, and @NE. However, this team under Mike Vrabel has always played tough and close games against the NFL’s best. I expect more of the same in 2021. In the past two seasons, they’ve beaten the Ravens, they’ve beaten the Bills, they’ve beaten the Chiefs, they’ve beaten the Patriots, they can beat anybody. So, if Tennessee can just go 4-2 or 3-3 against the aforementioned gauntlet of teams, then they can secure one of the top spots in the conference.
There will surely be a spotlight on DC Shane Bowen and the defense next year, as the Titans ranked 29th in defensive DVOA last year, alongside teams like the Texans, Jets, and Bengals. There are a plethora of statistics that give us a glimpse into just how bad this defense was in 2020…such statistics as:
- They allowed 30+ points in 9 of their 16 games
- They allowed a league-worst 51.98% 3rd down conversion rate
- They only recorded 19 sacks during the entire season, Aaron Donald had 15.5 himself
This defense was so atrocious last year that we have to expect some positive regression in 2021, especially with their offseason acquisitions on that side of the ball. If they can just approach league-average status on defense, then I think this team has a shot at the #1 seed in the AFC.
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