What’s up guys, more sneaky big questions hot off the presses. Today, we’re checking out the NFC West…a division that projects to be the most competitive in all of football. On Saturday, we’ll check out the AFC South, then finish up with the NFC East next week. Enjoy!
San Francisco 49ers
Q: Why do the Niners have the 3rd best odds to win the NFC?
According to VegasInsider.com, the San Francisco 49ers are tied with the Packers at +650 right now to represent the NFC in Super Bowl LVI. Heading into the 2021 season, there’s no question that the NFC is the weaker of the two conferences. With teams like the Panthers, Falcons, Eagles, Giants, Lions, and Bears, there’s bound to be a few random teams that sneak into the playoffs out of the NFC.
The 49ers are just a year and a half removed from nearly winning Super Bowl LIV, but after drafting Trey Lance I’m not sure what to expect from them in 2021. The 49ers got bit by the injury bug worse than any other team in 2020, as Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, Nick Bosa, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, and Soloman Thomas missed significant time. Vegas clearly thinks that San Fran can revert to their 2019 form, but this team is in limbo at the quarterback spot. Kyle Shanahan has such a lack of faith in Jimmy Garoppolo that he traded three first-round picks to grab Trey Lance. It would be an exercise in futility to try and guess how many games Lance will start in his rookie year. It could be 17, but heck it could be 2.
SharpFootballAnalysis.com ranks the 49ers’ strength of schedule as the easiest in the NFL this season, which could explain why Vegas is so high on them. SF has games @DET, @PHI, @CIN, @JAX, vs. HOU, and vs. ATL. They also lucked out this season by avoiding playing the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, Buccaneers, and Browns. With this soft schedule, San Francisco should sneak in as a Wild Card team, but I just don’t think their ceiling is that high. The 49ers are one of the more interesting teams in the NFL this year, but it’s hard for me to see them as anything more than an early exit playoff team…at least this year.
Arizona Cardinals
Q: Can Vance Joseph figure out how to unlock Isaiah Simmons?
When it comes to defensive prospects, I absolutely love players with high SPARQ scores and guys that light up the NFL Combine. Simmons definitely fit the bill, as he ran a 4.39 with a 39 inch vertical at 238 lbs. Simmons’ rookie season can only be summed up as an utter disappointment, but coming into the 2021 season, he is one of the most intriguing defensive players in the NFL. The major knock-on Simmons is that he is a tweener that doesn’t really have a position. Is he a linebacker? Is he a safety? Is he an edge rusher?
A few years back The Ringer’s Kevin Clark interviewed Jabrill Peppers about his positional versatility in college. Peppers said, “The one thing everyone loved about me in college hurt me at the next level.” Jabrill went on to say, “They said, ‘You do everything. You’re here, you’re here, you’re here. We’re going to play you at one position. How can we be sure that you’re going to master this position?'” Much like Jabrill Peppers, Simmons was a swiss army knife in college. He racked up tackles for loss and dropped back into coverage, deflecting passes. The worry I have when it comes to Simmons’ development is that Vance Joseph just isn’t a great defensive coordinator. Joseph was criticized heavily for Simmons’ lack of progress during his rookie season and it was warranted. While Joseph tried to design packages that fit his skillset later on in the season, Simmons really showed a lack of confidence last year. He didn’t really play with the same intensity he displayed at Clemson.
The Cardinals had a middle-of-the-road defense, but they did make that side of the ball a priority this offseason with the additions of J.J. Watt, Zaven Collins, Malcolm Butler, and Robert Alford. Their offense will most likely flirt with top-10 status this year, but I just don’t trust Vance Joseph to gameplan a way to stop the high-flying offenses in this division. I’m looking forward to seeing what Simmons’ role will be this year, but I think it might take another DC at the reigns to fully unlock Simmons’ full potential.
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Los Angeles Rams
Q: Have the Rams proven that 1st round picks aren’t that valuable?
Under Sean McVay, the Rams have been one of the smartest and most successful franchises over the last four years. Since 2017, the Rams have a 43-21 record, haven’t had a losing season, and they represented the NFC in Super Bowl LIII. The Rams philosophy over this time period is very simple and it’s been working: trade first-round and second-round picks for veteran stars. The last first-round selection Los Angeles had was when they grabbed Jerad Goff in 2016 and they don’t have a first-rounder until 2024. Here’s a list of LA’s first selections over the last five seasons:
- 2021: Pick 57 – Tutu Atwell
- 2020: Pick 52 – Cam Akers
- 2019: Pick 61 – Taylor Rapp
- 2018: Pick 89 – Joseph Noteboom
- 2017: Pick 44 – Gerald Everett
We all know that the NFL Draft is a complete crapshoot. Players taken with high draft picks like JaMarcus Russell, Trent Richardson, and Ryan Leaf have busted, while guys like George Kittle, Julian Edelman, and Joe Horn became stars in the later rounds. The Ram’s strategy is to bet on proven veterans rather than gambling in the casino that is the NFL Draft…and so far it has paid off. The players selected with the picks LA traded away have been: Corey Davis, Isaiah Wynn, Kaleb McGary, K’Lavon Chaisson, and Travis Etienne, so they really haven’t missed out on much. When you have a great coach like McVay and you’re selecting in the 25-30 range every year, it just makes sense to trade those picks for players that can help them win right now. Of course, Bill O’Brien tried this strategy with the Laremy Tunsil trade and it completely blew up in his face.
The Rams currently have the 2nd best odds in the NFC to reach the Super Bowl and you can’t say that their strategy hasn’t worked. I think other organizations are going to copy the Ram’s blueprint and be more willing to trade draft capital and future picks. I’m really high on Los Angeles this year and I see them reaching the NFC Championship game in 2021 with Stafford under center.
Seattle Seahawks
Q: Has Seattle been the worst drafting team over the last five years?
The Seahawks’ run to multiple Super Bowls at the start of the decade was built almost solely through the NFL Draft. From 2009-2013, John Schneider and Pete Carroll just couldn’t miss with their draft picks: Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, Max Unger, Kam Chancellor, Byron Maxwell, Bruce Irvin, Golden Tate, and K.J. Wright. Since the Malcolm Butler interception in 2015, the Seahawks haven’t made it past the second round of the playoffs and it’s clear that Russell Wilson is getting impatient. Wilson ‘claims’ that he didn’t request a trade this offseason, but when there is smoke…there’s fire. I believe the biggest reason that Wilson is upset with the Seahawks is because of their horrible track record in recent years, especially with the O-line. Just look at some of the top picks from their last several drafts:
- 2020: Jordyn Brooks(1st), Darrell Taylor(2nd, never played a game)
- 2019: L.J. Collier(1st), Marquise Blair(2nd), Cody Barton(3rd)
- 2018: Rashaad Penny(1st), Rasheem Green(3rd)
- 2017: Malik McDowell(1st, never played a game), Ethan Pocic(2nd)
- 2016: Germain Ifedi(1st), C.J. Prosise(3rd)
Not only has Seattle fucked up their most recent drafts, but they also had only TWO picks in the first five rounds of the 2021 draft. John Schnieder drafted a Super Bowl-winning roster in the early 2010s, but has whiffed on virtually every draft since 2016. This could definitely explain Wilson’s frustration, as he has been dragging this team to 10+ wins every single year since the Legion of Boom disbanded. The Seahawks should be a playoff team this year, but if they have yet another early exit, the “Wilson wants out” rumors will start to swirl again.
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