Happy Thursday everyone! We’re back with more sneaky big questions. Today, we’re looking at the AFC East, a division that was not won by New England, the first time since 2009. Next, we’ll take a look at the AFC North. Enjoy!
New York Jets
Q: Are we sure Robert Saleh is really some defensive mastermind?
It’s almost unbelievable that a team that started the season 0-13 didn’t win the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. This team was unwatchable every single week, yet in weeks 15 & 16 decided to just beat two playoff teams? Classic Jets. Adam Gase is now filing for unemployment and Robert Saleh has taken the reigns in New York. Unlike Adam Gase, Saleh is charismatic, motivational, and the players really seem to take to him. My skepticism with Saleh comes from the fact that the 2019 NFC champion defense he oversaw was absolutely loaded with talent.
The 49er defense that led them to Super Bowl LIV might be one of the most stacked defenses of all time…on paper. Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner, Dee Ford, Richard Sherman, Fred Warner, Arik Armstead, Kwon Alexander, and Jimmie Ward. So my question is: Was Saleh’s ‘Quarters’ scheme really that impactful or was he just in a great situation with a ton of talent?
I suppose the success of the 2019 San Francisco defense was a little bit of both, but in New York…Saleh definitely has his work cut out for him. The 2020 Jets defense ranked 26th in PPG, 24th in Yds/G, and 28th in Pass Yds/G. Most fans are more curious as to what this offense will look like with Zach Wilson under center. With Saleh being a defensive-minded head coach, I’m more interested to see how well they can improve on that side of the ball. Expectations are pretty low for Saleh’s first year and this defense has very little talent aside from Quinnen Williams, CJ Mosley, and Marcus Maye, but only time will tell if Saleh is really the great defensive mind he is portrayed to be.
New England Patriots
Q: Could this be the best defense in the league next year?
After the first few weeks of the 2020 season, it looked like business as usual for Bill Belichick and the Patriots, until they were held winless during the entire month of October and their season was quickly in jeopardy. It was a pretty embarrassing showing for Pats fans, as their team finished 3rd in the division, WHILE having to watch their former golden boy hoist the Lombardi trophy in his very first season with his new team. Ouch.
However, things are looking up for New England, as they drafted Mac Jones, went absolutely wild in free agency, and they got Kyle Van Noy back. The 2021 Pats have a very easy schedule in terms of opposing offenses which include: the Jets twice, Miami twice, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Houston, Carolina, and Indy. Not only that, but New England plays a slow style of football…chewing the clock and keeping the opposing team’s offense off the field.
Their defense has a ton of talent with Stephon Gilmore, Matthew Judon, J.C. Jackson, Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Christian Barimore, and Kyle Duggar. With Belichick still in charge of the defense coupled with their soft schedule, I see this defense reverting back to their 2018 form and locking down teams through the air. I expect this to be a top 5 defense next year, but don’t be surprised if this is the #1 or #2 scoring defense at the end of the season.
Miami Dolphins
Q: Just how much was Tua’s confidence shaken after his multiple benchings?
I listened to an interesting interview with Peyton Manning last week, where he said that one of the biggest positives for his career was his coach Jim Mora leaving him in games when he was struggling during his rookie year. He said he needed those opportunities and reps to learn from his mistakes and get a feel for the speed of the NFL game. In Manning’s rookie year, the Colts finished 3-13 and Peyton lead the league in interceptions. When he told that story, I immediately thought of Tua Tagovaiola.
Tua found himself in a tough spot last year after being taken 5th overall in the draft. 9/10 teams that spend top 5 picks on quarterbacks are awful the following season. Think back to past teams with rookie starters like the Bucs with Jameis Winston, the Bears with Trubisky, the Rams with Jarred Goff. The Dolphins were in a unique situation where they were fighting for a playoff spot and felt Fitzpatrick could better lead them to a Wild Card birth than Tua. Despite leading his team to a 6-3 record, Tua just looked completely overwhelmed at times. He started three games last year in which he threw for less than 100 yards, his Yards/Attempt was terrible, and he had a lower QBR than Daniel Jones, Mitch Trubisky, and Andy Dalton.
Of course, Tua was benched multiple times throughout the year and you have to believe his confidence was shaken immensely. Football is a mental sport and when you’re a quarterback that continues to get pulled from games, your coach is basically saying, “We just don’t believe in you.” I really wonder what the benchings have done to his psyche and confidence as a player. Coming into the 2021 season, Tua has to be one of the most intriguing players in the NFL and I’m very curious to see how he responds to the adversity he faced in his rookie season.
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Buffalo Bills
Q: What if the Bills were in the NFC?
Buffalo really took the leap last year and made it all the way to the AFC Championship game before falling to Kansas City. Josh Allen looks like a future MVP and the Allen to Diggs combo is one of the best connections in all of football. The Bills signed Allen to a $280 million contract last week and look to be a force in the AFC for the next 5+ years. There was a point last year around week 14-15 where I thought Buffalo was the best team in football, but when you play in the AFC you know Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are always lurking.
The Bills are the clear #2 team in the AFC and will be vying for that coveted first-round bye, but I just cannot see them getting over the hump and beating the Chiefs in the playoffs. This leads me to the question, “What if they were in the NFC instead?” The NFC was very weak in 2020 and they’ll most likely be the lesser conference this year as well. I believe that if the Bills just happened to play in the NFC, they would be the clear favorites to win the conference over teams like Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, and Green Bay.
I don’t care what the bookmakers say, I see the Bills as the second-best team in football coming into the 2021 season. Unfortunately, they will have to go through the Chiefs at some point and in an Allen vs. Mahomes showdown, I’m taking Pat 90 times out of 100. Not only does Buffalo have to worry about the Chiefs, but the playoff landscape in the AFC is a gauntlet that features Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Baltimore, Cleveland, and New England. There are going to be some grueling matchups that the Bills will have to face to make it to the Super Bowl, while the NFC East sent a 7-9 team to the postseason. I’m rooting for Bills Mafia this year, but I just cannot put them ahead of the Chiefs right now.
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