One Year Early IS the Right Time (Dynasty Football)

Now is the time of the season to take an honest measure of your dynasty roster(s) and evaluate every player. The value of draft picks fluctuates through the year with picks being valued less at this time than in the offseason. Many managers are focused on moves for the present making them more willing to deal draft picks and/or developmental players to secure an asset they believe will aid their team in winning a championship. Leveraging said timing is the difference between successful managers and mediocre managers.

For the record, this article is not for teams contending for a championship within the next two-to-three seasons. It is however imperative to let go of biases and affinities to objectively appraise your team. We’ve all played with that person who overvalues all his players and is impossible to trade with. If you don’t know who I’m talking about then it’s probably you. The players below are all considered at the top of their respective positions. Savvy trading is a must to obtain appropriate compensation for their services.

Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Blasphemous, heretical, rabble-rouser. I can already hear the rumblings from the fantasy football community. Now hear me… trade Cook as soon as humanly possible. He’s been so reliable it should be considered unfair in the wild and wacky season of 2020. First among RBs in the following categories: yards from scrimmage, TDs, first downs, and fantasy points (depending on scoring). Why in the world would you trade away such a dominant player? RBs burn red-hot and quickly plummet away into obscurity (unless your name is Frank Gore). Cook has an extensive injury history dating back to his college days at Florida State. The injury bug even reared it’s annoying head earlier this season when he missed Week 6 with a groin strain.

This situation is reminiscent of Todd Gurley II in 2017 and 2018. His value was outrageous and forward-thinking managers recognized that and took advantage by selling him for multiple first-round draft picks and young players. It is the primary, and most recent, example of why selling one year early is the right time to sell. Gurley managers received fractional value if they didn’t sell before the 2019 season.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

There is no doubt Elliott has one of the worst situations of the top tier RBs in 2020. The Dallas Cowboys have experienced injuries at every position on the offensive line and lost Dak Prescott in Week 5. He is still the RB6 through 11 weeks. Among RBs he is fourth in carries, fifth in targets, eighth in goal-line carries, and first in snap share according to PlayerProfiler. It’s no secret he is a volume monster; however, the advanced analytics show a different story for him. His yards after contact per attempt have dropped every season since 2018 while he is the RB43 in yards created per touch. It’s not outlandish to say he may be the second most effective RB on his team. Tony Pollard has looked electric this season when spelling Elliott. I am not suggesting a bell-cow role for Pollard over Elliott, but the gap in snaps has been steadily decreasing over the past four weeks.

Elliott will more than likely finish as a top 10 RB in 2020, Dallas should be healthier in 2021, and he has the security of a monster contract. These are all reasons the championship seeking manager would unload for him. Be wary though! He isn’t owed guaranteed money after the 2021 season, so Dallas could choose to move on and hand over the role to Pollard at that time. We’re in the business of obtaining maximum value in dynasty fantasy football and this offseason could be the last chance to cash in on Elliott’s reputation and consistent fantasy production.

James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Robinson’s inclusion in this list is not meant to take anything away from him. The eye test and the analytics tell the story of a talented RB. He’s elusive, he can gain yards in chunks, and he’s proven he can handle a bell-cow workload. He’s also an undrafted free agent (UDFA) on a bottom-five offense. That offense is a problem for his upside as he has only two goal-line carries on the season. The more worrying aspect is his draft capital. There has been two UDFAs finish as top 12 RBs since 2016. Neither of those players returned repeated the next season.

Jacksonville has 12 picks in the 2021 draft and could look to add a runner with more pedigree. If you can sell him at an RB1 price then make that move.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Evans is an enormous WR who currently leads the NFL in red-zone targets. He has been incredibly consistent since entering the league as evidenced by his six straight 1,000+ yards seasons. He is currently the WR17 battling Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, and Rob Gronkowski for targets. His name alone carries substantial value for fantasy football managers. He’s also only 27 years old.

He has two major red flags that necessitate a careful evaluation. His long-term QB situation is anything but stable and his cap hit doubles in 2021 while his guaranteed salary drops to $0. Talented over situation is the mantra for dynasty fantasy football, but he is a player that can lose value quickly if the situation is poor enough. I’m looking to sell him before that happens.

Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings

Thielen can turn defenders around from the snap with possibly the best release off the line of scrimmage in football. He is also a prolific red-zone threat proved by his league-leading 11 TD receptions. It’s a shame the offensive philosophy leaves so much meat on the bone for Minnesota receivers. Mike Zimmer would run the ball on every down if given his way and the appropriate game script. Thielen is currently the fifth-ranked WR while only seeing 76 targets. Efficiency always gives way to volume.

Minnesota also has a future star in Justin Jefferson who will be the team’s primary receiver sooner than later. Thielen will be 31 at the start of the 2021 season and his guaranteed money is reduced to zero at the end of this season. The running game and Jefferson will be the two main fantasy contributors in 2021. Exploit Thielen’s incredible TD efficiency and top five ranking now before his value takes a nosedive in 2021.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce has finished as the number one fantasy TE every year since 2016. Re-read that! He is the biggest difference-maker at any position in fantasy football. It’s a monster bonus considering his position has been a stinking mire of mediocrity as far back as the dawn of the universe.

He is also 31 years old with a contract that pays zero guaranteed money and has zero dead money after 2021. His value will never be higher than it is right now. He is one of the best to ever play the position, but Father Time is undefeated. Cash in now before the contract situation and his age throw doubt into the minds’ of dynasty fantasy football managers.

Trading away any of these studs is going to feel gross, but the old saying goes; “time equals money”. Making dynamic moves in dynasty fantasy football is all about timing. When managers get the timing right, they get their money right and lay the foundation for numerous future championships.

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