The draft is over, and thus the final leg of the off-season has concluded. Sure, there will be some more free agency signings over the summer months, but we now have each franchise’s 95% complete blueprint. With that blueprint come insight on how they view their veteran players in the short and long term. From a fantasy football perspective, we can gain an edge over our opponents by studying these blueprints. Below are a few players that saw an increase in value and also some that will see a decrease in value based on what their team did during the draft:
Winners:
Dak Prescott
Dallas was one of the top offenses last year and Dak finished as a top 5 QB in almost any fantasy football scoring format. They return their studs (after backing up the Brink’s truck for a few of them) and jettisoned some of their dead weight in Witten and Cobb. During the first round, they grabbed arguably the best WR prospect of 2020. Add to the fact this Cowboys defense is going to get worse and worse with all the money tied to the offense and you have a recipe for fantasy success. Dak should be able to surpass last year’s numbers.
Todd Gurley and Russell Gage
A 2-for-1 analysis for the Falcons. The Atlanta offense has been fantasy gold for several years, being able to support productive numbers from numerous skill position players. It was widely expected they add a complimentary piece to the backfield and bolster the receiving corps depth. Neither happened, so we get at least one year of Todd Gurley workhouse type playing time and Gage looks like a solid sleeper as the #3 WR in this prolific scoring offense.
Matt Breida
A week ago, he was 3rd or 4th in the pecking order of a very deep running back stable. Now he has been sent to Miami to form a tandem with Jordan Howard. Breida has always shown potential when given touches and when he remains healthy. He is expected to carry plenty of responsibility as Tua gets his feet wet in the NFL. I expect the summer hype to greatly increase his ADP but I am jumping on the train now.
Losers:
Running Backs Matter Truthers
Approximately 25% of the running backs entrenched as contributors on their respective team got a rude awakening draft weekend. While some of the draft moves won’t be felt until 2021, some of the running backs that learned they don’t matter as much as they would like to think, include:
- Mark Ingram
- Devin Singletary
- Kerryon Johnson
- Aaron Jones
- Marlon Mack
- Damien Williams
- Darrell Henderson
- Ronald Jones
- Derrius Guice
All these guys saw their teams aggressively draft their potential replacement or someone who could very quickly come in and steal a share of the backfield touches. You can probably add Mixon and Fournette to the list of RB’s who won’t be receiving a lucrative extension in the coming months. Teams are starting to understand an RB’s maximum value is over by age 26 and they are drafting the replacement almost as soon as the king of the running back hill is crowned.
Tyrell Williams
While Tyrell the Gazelle produced decently when healthy last year, he was never suited for the alpha role in a passing game. So it wasn’t a surprise to see the Raiders invest early in some WR talent. What was surprising was the double dip in round 3 to bring two other mouths to feed into the equation. Add in Waller’s increased responsibility as a playmaker, and Tyrell might see himself going from Alpha all the way down to 4th or 5th option in a blink of the eye.
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Aaron Rodgers
No article about the draft would be complete until we address Aaron Rodgers and the malpractice the Packers franchise committed during draft week. While I fully expect Aaron to be able to hold off Jordan Love for 1 or 2 seasons, his long term future looks shaky at best. There also isn’t a guarantee Aaron won’t force this thing towards a messy divorce. The Packers wont publicly say it, but the above average at best play from Aaron the last few years show them his best days are behind him. All these add up to a big STAY AWAY for Aaron in all fantasy formats.
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