Week 13 ALREADY!? We’re coming off a 4-2 performance last week where my only misses came from the LAC/BUF game that I loved. That game was about as productive as I projected, but the number of turnovers left the players I picked on the wrong side of variance. That puts us at 7-5 on the season and feeling good about the momentum we’re carrying into week 13. This week the Tight End position offers some really soft lines and more than their fair share of plus odds, which has me investing heavily in the position.
Embed from Getty ImagesAnthony Firkser: OVER 26.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
This one is basically stealing. The Tight End is a huge part of this Titan’s offense and the last time that Jonnu Smith missed a game, Firsker EXPLODED for an 8/113/1 line against the Texans. Even with Smith in the game, coach Mike Vrabel has made it a point to get Firkser involved in the offense, especially in the red zone. Coupling all of this with a matchup against the Browns defense that has made living slowing down the run game, I expect the Titans to be throwing more this week and Firkser to be plenty busy this week. **If anyone is feeling extra spicy (like me) – Firkser’s +280 line to score is one of my favorite long-odd plays on the slate.
Embed from Getty ImagesJordan Akins: OVER 3.5 Receptions (+130)
Everyone is talking about Will Fuller’s 6-game suspension for PEDs and which Texans receiver stands to fill that void. Keke Coutee and, to a lesser extent, Isaiah Coulter are the darlings of those in fantasy community who are looking for the next man up or a value dart to throw in DFS. It takes a tortured Texans fan like me to know that Coutee has seen plenty of opportunities to get involved in the offense, most of which have resulted in poor route running and dropped passes. Akins is the Texans’ “move” TE and has seen his snap share and routes run increase steadily since returning from injury. I expect him to see a nice share of the 7-target-per-game void that Fuller’s absence creates and to blow past this line early. Also, these plus odds look to be a soft spot in the market; with the Akins’ yardage line (33.5) sitting at -115. SIGN ME UP!
Embed from Getty ImagesKyle Rudolph UNDER 34.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
This one feels a bit counterintuitive with Rudolph coming off a huge (by his standards) 7/68/0 game against Carolina. A closer look at the stat sheet will show that 6 of his receptions and 56 of his yards on the day came late in the game with Minnesota down big; a game script that is far less likely against a Jaguars team already looking to next season. Like last week, Rudolph stands to benefit from the absence of Irv Smith Jr. who has already been ruled out with a groin injury. However, I see most of his involvement last week as the result of Adam Theilen missing the game after being placed on the COVID list; which will not be the case this week. Rudolph is averaging about 30 yards receiving per game this year and I don’t expect to see him getting many looks in a game where the Vikings have their WR corps at full strength and stand to be comfortably in the lead.
Kareem Hunt: OVER 2.5 Receptions (+110)
You only need to go back and read my piece from last week (or the week before that, or the week before that) to know that I love me some Kareem Hunt. The guy just keeps getting it done and Nick Chubb running like a man possessed just keeps pushing Hunt’s lines further down. 2.5 receptions at PLUS ODDS!?!?! Kareem Hunt is averaging over 3 receptions per game already and I expect the Browns to be trailing more often than not against the Titans; which should leave Hunt with plenty of time on the field this week. I do like Hunt’s total yards line of 54.5 a bit more than this receptions line, but I just can’t walk away from these dreamy +110 odds.
Embed from Getty ImagesKyler Murray: UNDER 7.5 Rushing Attempts (+110)
The market has adjusted a little bit this week but even with the total moving down by one carry, I’m going back to the well with this Kyler prop. Whether or not the Cardinals are willing to admit it, Kyler Murry is clearly still battling a shoulder injury and that finds him less willing to rush the ball and risk aggravating that tender shoulder. Simultaneously, it looks like Kingsberry’s confidence in Kenyan Drake is increasing and his role in the running game is expanding; chipping away at the ELITE rushing workload we came to know and love with Kyler. While the line has adjusted to account for recent performance; we’re still getting plus odds on the under, making it one of my favorite plays on the board this week.
Embed from Getty ImagesKenyan Drake: 2-FER ALERT!! OVER 10.5 Receiving Yards (+105) | Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
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Obviously, I’d prefer to find a total yards line but it’s not out there in the market and both of the lines (and odds) are super favorable. I mentioned Drake’s role in the offense expanding as part of the reason why I’m fading Kyler Murray’s ground game and it was for good reason. In addition to a decreased threat of Murray taking some of his carries, Kenyan has seen his snap share increase each of the last 4 weeks and is averaging an impressive 18.75 touches/game over that span. Couple that with a matchup against a Bill Defense that is allowing 143.5 total yards/game to running backs and who just got destroyed for 129 total yards by Austin Ekeler and I’m all in on the Drake scooting past both of these lines with ease.
Embed from Getty ImagesJonathan Taylor: OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Two weeks against the Ravens, Taylor finally had his breakout game and I, for one, am buying into the hype. In addition to being the most talented runner in the Indy backfield; Taylor currently has something that coach Frank Reich cannot resist – the hot hand. This week Taylor slides into one of the softest matchups against the run in the Houston Texans, who are giving up just over 43 receiving yards/game to running backs. What I like most about this play is that Taylor has been consistently involved in the passing game, averaging 22.7 receiving yards/game, even when he wasn’t the apple of Reich’s eye.
Embed from Getty ImagesGolden Tate: OVER 2.5 Receptions (+110)
To say that Tate’s matchup against the Seahawks is favorable is maybe the understatement of the year. Seattle isn’t just giving up the most receptions and receiving yards on the season, they’re doing so by a SIGNIFICANT margin (almost 25% more than the next team down). Golden Tate has been slowly coming on in this offense, averaging 7 targets/game since returning from injury and profiles as the best WR for McCoy’s skillset (or lack thereof). I usually lean on the side of yardage props when I’m in favor of the over, but William Hill being kind enough to offer plus odd on a very low 2.5 receptions line is just too good to pass up!
Embed from Getty ImagesD.J. Chark: OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards (EVEN)
Do do, do do do do! Chark is officially back from a rib injury that kept him out of the week 12 matchup against Cleveland and I’m firing him up right away. While the Jaguars are a laughing stock overall, they’re surprisingly right in the middle of the pack when it comes to the passing game. Last week Mike Glennon was seeing the whole field against the Browns and turned in a serviceable outing, passing the ball 35 times for 238 yards through the air. D.J. Chark is easily the Jags most talented and most experienced route-runner and I expect him to eat against these Vikings cornerbacks that are better suited to be working the concession stand at US Bank Stadium than suiting up on the field of play.
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