It’s official! Julio Jones has been traded to the Tennessee Titans after weeks of speculation. The Titans traded a 2022 second-round pick and a 2023 fourth-round pick for Julio Jones and a 2023 sixth-round pick.
Every major and minor network has reported on the NFL implications of this trade, so I’m going to let that dead horse lie.
This article is going to analyze the effect this trade has on all fantasy-relevant players for both teams involved.
Matt Ryan
Ryan finished as the 27th, 24th, 16th, 27th, 8th, 14th, and 10th ranked fantasy QB in the seven games Julio Jones missed in 2020. The pass-catching options can still be productive for fantasy, but Ryan has historically struggled without Jones.
The 2021 offseason has been full of change for a QB that has struggled to adapt to new offensive systems. I don’t have any faith in a statuesque QB in a new system without his favorite target of the past 10 seasons.
Expect him to finish between 18 and 24 with some streaming upside in good matchups.
Mike Davis
Somehow, someway Davis is still the starting RB in Atlanta. His TD opportunities are affected by the loss of Jones, but he should see a fair amount of targets out of the backfield.
He will enjoy a portion of the 138 vacated targets, but his potential is capped by the offense not moving the ball as easily had they kept Jones.
Draft him at his current ADP of RB34 and get ready for a trailer park situation. The floor is higher than normal, but the ceiling is low.
Calvin Ridley
Ridley averaged 11.3 targets in the seven games Jones missed in 2020. He had six top-25 finishes, including three top-10 finishes.
His current average draft position (ADP) is WR5 which is where he finished after his breakout 2020 campaign. His ceiling is the WR4 which is where he finished in PPR per game scoring in 2020.
The only reason I don’t believe he finishes higher is the historical struggles of Matt Ryan in a new offens
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Russell Gage
Gage saw 109 targets in 2020. Let that sink in for a moment. That was 28th in the NFL. That’s the good news.
The bad news is he finished 48th in PPR per game scoring and Kyle Pitts is going to steal snaps from him in the slot.
Expect his targets to decrease to the 80-90 range while losing red-zone looks to the bigger-bodied Pitts.
Embed from Getty ImagesKyle Pitts
The Pitts hype has been gaining momentum since the offseason started. The crescendo continued after he was selected number four overall. The Julio Jones trade has caused it to reach decibels close creating a black hole that will devour the Earth.
Pitts is in line for a significant portion of the 138 vacated targets, but remember he is a rookie. The greatest rookie TE season this millennium saw Evan Engram amass 172.2 PPR fantasy points and finish as the TE4 in points per game.
Pitts is going to do special things on the football field for the Falcons, but his ceiling for 2021 is the fourth-best TE.
Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Darren Waller are locked in as the top three as the number one targets on their offense.
Pitts is going to be great for fantasy in 2021 and moving forward, but don’t expect top three numbers right away.
Ryan Tannehill
#TANNESSEE
Tannehill is far and away the biggest benefactor in this trade. He won’t have the passing volume of Matt Ryan, Josh Allen, or Patrick Mahomes, but his outrageous efficiency is poised to continue.
He has finished as a top 10 fantasy QB in his two seasons with the Titans with 286 (in 10 games) and 481 pass attempts.
A.J. Brown and Julio Jones on the outside give him two ELITE receiving options.
The top eight is his floor in 2021 with the top five being well within his range of outcomes.
Derrick Henry
Attention fantasy managers of Derrick Henry: do not panic! This offense is going to run through the reigning rushing champion.
This offense is top-five on paper, so expect him to flirt with the 20 TD mark once again this season.
A.J. Brown
His ad campaign worked! Brown is about to destroy number two cornerbacks in 2021.
The Titans are number two in vacated targets with 215 targets from 2020 up for grabs. That means Brown could still see a huge jump in targets that many, including myself, were projecting for him.
His efficiency, more targets, and facing less talented cornerbacks are a recipe for a top-five campaign. Do not fade him at his current WR8 ADP based on a “Julio Jones is going to steal targets” narrative.
Smash that value if his ADP holds or creeps into the double digits.
Julio Jones
The man of the hour, the man with the power. The sure-fire Hall-of-Famer has some green grass in his palatial estate in Nashville.
Unfortunately, the real-life implications do not mirror the fantasy impact on Jones.
The Falcons have been top-five in passing attempts each of the last three seasons. More attempts equal more targets which equals what managers covet most in a WR: volume.
Everyone knows Jones has struggled to stay healthy in his career and I can’t imagine that’s going to disappear in his age 32 season. Couple that with a perceived smaller target total and there is potential for disappointment.
He is going to be incredible for fantasy when he’s on the field, but do not overreact based on the excitement around this trade.
His floor (barring injury) is top 20 based on his talent and the efficiency of this offense; however, I do not believe he will receive the volume or the TDs necessary to finish in the top 10.
All-in-all this trade lit both the NFL and fantasy realms on fire. I’ve said it throughout this article: do not get caught up in the excitement and overreact on any of the above-mentioned players.
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