Re-Drafting the Top 5 Picks of Every NBA Draft of the 21st Century

Hindsight is always 20/20. Predicting how a prospect’s talents and skills will translate to the next level is the hardest thing to do in sports. It’s truly a science that will never be solved. The GMs of their respective teams thought Darko Milicic, Anthony Bennett, and Kwame Brown would be franchise-changing players. The science is so hard to pinpoint that it has led to front offices not even taking a late 2nd rounder on guys like Ben Wallace, Jeremy Lin, and John Starks. Evaluating prospects is incredibly hard and it costs general managers their jobs year in and year out. So today, we are re-drafting every NBA draft of the 21st century…the way it should have been. Before we get started here are a few rules for the re-drafts:

• Trust The Process: Infamous 76ers GM Sam Hinkie always preached in taking the best player available, no matter what position they played or what the team needs were. It led to Philly selecting a center in the top 10 in three straight drafts. We’re abiding by this same principle in the re-drafts. We aren’t looking at the fact that the ’03 Pistons already had Rip Hamilton at SG, Dwyane was the best player available. You can trade Hamilton later. Take a generational talent like Wade no matter what, even if you already have a good player at that position. 
• Same Exact Careers: In this re-draft we aren’t looking at the what-ifs. In this alternate universe, we are still assuming Danny Granger only has five good years in him then falls off a cliff because of injuries. We are still assuming Gilbert Arenas pulls a gun on a teammate over a poker game and his career is never the same. Pascal Siakam still rides the bench and can’t shoot 3’s early on in his career. There are no changes to these players careers whatsoever. 
• No Trade Clause: What ever team was originally slotted for their top five pick doesn’t trade out. Let’s just keep it simple.

Alright guys, let’s travel back in time to the year 2000 and get this show on the road!

2000 

1. New Jersey Nets: Michael Redd, SG, Ohio State
2. Vancouver Grizzlies: Kenyon Martin, PF, Cincinnati 
3. Los Angeles Clippers: Jamal Crawford, SG, Michigan
4. Chicago Bulls: Mike Miller, SF, Florida
5. Orlando Magic: Hedo Turkoglu, SF, Turkey
   
   

The 2000 Draft is widely considered the worst draft class in NBA history, so finding five players to fill these slots was no easy task. The ENTIRE 2000 class had a combined three career all-star game appearances, LeBron James has 16 appearances just by himself. This draft was filled with role players and guys who only had cups of coffee in the league. It was a hard decision between Martin and Redd for #1, but Redd had six straight seasons of 20 PPG and a career PER of 19.5. Mike Miller vs. Hedo was also a tough decision. Their careers are eerily similar. Both had seasons averaging close to 20 PPG, both were excellent 3-point shooters, and both had drastic slides in production towards the end of their careers. Miller was this class’ ROY and a 2x champion so I slid him one spot above Hedo.

Class Talent Grade: F

2001

1. Washington Wizards: Pau Gasol, PF, Spain
2. Los Angeles Clippers: Tony Parker, PG, France
3. Atlanta Hawks: Joe Johnson, SG, Arkansas
4. Chicago Bulls: Gilbert Arenas, PG, Arizona
5. Golden State Warriors: Zach Randolph, PF, Michigan State
   

Ahhhhh the famous Kwame Brown draft. The 2001 class as a whole had a lot of talent, but just didn’t have a massive superstar like a Kevin Durant or an Anthony Davis. However this class was very deep, with guys like Richard Jefferson, Gerald Wallace, Tyson Chandler, and Mehmet Okur not even cracking the top five. All these five guys had pretty similar careers, so it was pretty challenging to rank them. In a re-draft, Pau Gasol probably goes #1. Pau averaged 17+ PPG for 13 straight seasons, helped the Lakers win two titles, and was extremely consistent year after year. I also went Gilbert over Randolph at #4 because although Zach’s career was much longer, Arenas was once a top-15 player in the league and averaged 34 PPG in the 2006 playoffs.

Class Talent Grade: B+

2002

1. Houston Rockets: Amar’e Stoudemire, PF, Cyprus Creek HS
2. Chicago Bulls: Yao Ming, C, China
3. Golden State Warriors: Carlos Boozer, PF, Duke
4. Memphis Grizzlies: Caron Butler, SF, UCONN
5. Denver Nuggets: Nene, PF, Brazil

This draft will always be remembered as the Yao Ming draft. Besides that, 2002’s class is pretty forgettable. One other thing that sticks out, is that the Bulls have their third straight top five pick…the post-Jordan rebuild is coming along swimmingly. The case for Yao Ming staying at #1 here can easily be made. He sold tickets, he grew the Rockets popularity overseas immensely, and he was an all-star in every single season he played. However, Stoudemire was just the better basketball player, and played 350 more career games than Yao too. Other than Boozer, Yao, and Amar’e, this draft was pretty lackluster in the talent department, luckily 2003 made up for it.

Class Talent Grade: D+

2003

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: LeBron James, SF, St. Vincent-St. Mary HS
2. Detroit Pistons: Dwyane Wade, SG, Marquette
3. Denver Nuggets: Carmelo Anthony, SF, Syracuse
4. Toronto Raptors: Chris Bosh, PF, Georgia Tech
5. Miami Heat: David West, PF, Xavier

Hands down one of the most stacked draft classes in history. Not only that, but by far the easiest year to re-draft as well. LeBron, Carmelo, and Bosh all stay put, but the biggest change is Wade heading to Detroit. The craziest aspect about the 2003 draft is that Detroit won the title the very next year despite fucking up the Darko pick. They could have trotted out a team of Chauncey Billups, Ben Wallace, Rip Hamilton, Rasheed Wallace, and Bosh/Wade/Carmelo, take your pick. They made it to back-to-back Finals without one of the three future HOFers chosen after LeBron. Outside of the top five, there was a lot of solid talent in the latter half of the draft like Kyle Korver, Mo Williams, and Josh Howard. 2003’s draft will forever be remembered as one of the deepest of all-time.

Class Talent Grade: A+

2004

1. Orlando Magic: Dwight Howard, C, Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Andre Iguodala, SF, Arizona
3. Chicago Bulls: Luol Deng, SF, Duke 
4. Los Angeles Clippers: Al Jefferson, C, Prentiss HS
5. Washington Wizards: Kevin Martin, SG, Western Carolina

Another draft, another top five pick for Chicago. They finally start to turn it around in 2004 with the Luol Deng and Ben Gordon picks. The 2004 Draft had some solid talent all around with Jameer Nelson at 20, J.R. Smith at 18, Josh Smith at 17, and Trevor Ariza at 43. Other than Dwight and Iggy, there really weren’t many big name talents, but a lot of solid starters and a few all-star appearances throughout the 59 picks. In this re-draft, Deng stays on the Bulls because although Al Jefferson had a solid career, he’s a famous “good stats, bad team” guy. Deng played in a ton of big games and was really great in the postseason. Big Al never won a playoff series.

Class Talent Grade: B-

2005

1. Milwaukee Bucks: Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest
2. Atlanta Hawks: Deron Williams, PG, Illinois
3. Utah Jazz: Lou Williams, SG, South Gwinnett HS
4. New Orleans Hornets: Andrew Bogut, C, Utah
5. Charlotte Bobcats: Danny Granger, SF, New Mexico

The interesting tidbit about the 2005 Draft was that it was the last year high school players were eligible to declare for the NBA. Out of all the drafts we cover, 2005 might be the weirdest collection of players. First, there were four UNC Tar Heels taken in the lottery…and none of them made much of an impact. Secondly, there was almost as much talent found in the 2nd round as there was in the first with guys like Lou Williams, Monta Ellis, Marcin Gortat, and David Lee(last pick of the 1st round). Lastly, this was probably the hardest of the 19 drafts to re-do. I had no idea where to go after the obvious 1 & 2 picks. Lou Williams had the third longest career out of everyone in this draft. He is one of the best sixth men of all time and a lethal scorer off the bench, so he comes in at #3. I truly do not feel good about this list at all. I don’t think there is a right answer when looking at 2005’s class.

Class Talent Grade: C

2006

1. Toronto Raptors: LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Texas
2. Chicago Bulls: Kyle Lowry, PG, Villanova
3. Charlotte Bobcats: Paul Millsap, PF, Louisiana Tech
4. Portland Trail Blazers: Rajon Rondo, PG, Kentucky
5. Atlanta Hawks: Rudy Gay, SF, UCONN

When I remember the 2006 Draft, I always think back to the awesome college season that featured incredible performances from J.J. Redick and Adam Morrison. Other than that, a pretty unmemorable class. One interesting piece to note in this draft is just how bad the 2nd round talent ended up being. Outside of Paul Millsap and P.J. Tucker, it’s just tumbleweeds. A ton of foreign players never even came over from overseas. Millsap vs. Rondo is a tough argument at #3, but Rondo has played on six different teams over the last six seasons. It’s also well-documented just how much of a cancer he was on the 2015 Mavericks. The analytics guys don’t love Rudy Gay, but he’s had 10 seasons averaging 18+ PPG. He’s also stayed really healthy throughout his career, so in this re-draft he packs his bags for Atlanta.

Class Talent Grade: C

2007

1. Portland Trail Blazers: Kevin Durant, SF, Texas
2. Seattle Supersonics: Marc Gasol, C, Spain
3. Atlanta Hawks: Al Horford, C, Florida
4. Memphis Grizzlies: Mike Conley, PG, Ohio State
5. Boston Celtics: Joakim Noah, C, Florida

The 2007 Draft produced one of the greatest what-ifs in NBA history. What if the Blazers had taken Kevin Durant instead of Greg Oden? The Blazers took Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge the year prior, add Durant to that duo…wow. If you’re a Portland fan, just move on to 2008. Five members of the NCAA champion Florida Gators were also taken in this draft, three in the top 10. Al Horford vs. Marc Gasol was a really tough debate for the #2 pick. Both have almost identical career averages in PPG, APG, RPG, and PER. However, at their peaks I would rather have prime Gasol over prime Horford, just my take. In this re-draft, Conley and Horford stay with the teams that originally picked them and Noah heads to Beantown.

Class Talent grade: B+

2008

1. Chicago Bulls: Russell Westbrook, PG, UCLA
2. Miami Heat: Kevin Love, PF, UCLA
3. Minnesota Timberwolves: Derrick Rose, PG, Memphis
4. Seattle Supersonics: Brook Lopez, C, Stanford
5. Memphis Grizzlies: DeAndre Jordan, C, Texas A&M

In the 2008 lottery, the Bulls had a 1.7% chance to land the 1st overall pick and they chose hometown kid Derrick Rose out of Memphis. Despite all of the injuries, Rose is the clear #3 re-draft pick here. At his peak he was an MVP, and a truly explosive offensive player. He’s also had an excellent turn around in his career as a sixth man in Minnesota and Detroit. Lopez vs. Jordan is close, but Lopez was a consistent 20 and 10 guy for years. DJ was a solid rim protector and lob catcher in Los Angeles, but not a true offensive juggernaut like Brook. In this re-draft, a pair of Bruins teammates go back-to-back at one and two, and Rose heads to the T-Wolves.

Class Talent Grade: B+

2009

1. Los Angeles Clippers: Steph Curry, PG, Davidson
2. Memphis Grizzlies: James Harden, SG, Arizona State
3. Oklahoma City Thunder: Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma
4. Sacramento Kings: DeMar DeRozan, SG, USC
5. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jrue Holiday, PG, UCLA

As a Timberwolves fan, it truly pains me to talk about the 2009 Draft class. The T-Wolves famously chose two point guards back-to-back with picks 5 and 6, and Steph Curry went 7th. It was absolute malpractice by GM David Kahn, and completely unforgivable. What’s also crazy about this draft class, is that with the insane amount of talent in Harden, Curry, Blake, DeRozan, Jrue, Teague…Tyreke Evans walked away with the ROY trophy. This re-draft is pretty straightforward, no real arguments for any list other than these five guys.

Class Talent Grade: A

2010

1. Washington Wizards: Paul George, SF, Fresno State
2. Philadelphia 76ers: John Wall, PG, Kentucky
3. New Jersey Nets: DeMarcus Cousins, C, Kentucky
4. Minnesota Timberwolves: Gordon Hayward, SF, Butler
5. Sacramento Kings: Eric Bledsoe, PG, Kentucky

What comes to mind when I think about the 2010 Draft class? Leg Injuries. All the best players to come out of this draft have all struggled with terrible leg injuries in their careers. Who can forget seeing Paul George brutally snap his leg during a Team USA scrimmage or Gordon Hayward going up for that alley-oop five minutes into his first game as a Celtic. The jury is still out on how Boogie Cousins and John Wall recover from their setbacks, but as of right now this is the 2010 class reimagined. This list was really easy to decipher, as the 2010 Draft was extremely top heavy and there was a huge drop off in talent after these five guys. Derrick Favors, Jeremy Lin, Evan Turner, Greg Monroe, and Hassan Whiteside had nowhere close to the careers that Wall, George, Hayward, and Cousins have had. Another fun fact about this re-draft, is that that this is the first class we’ve redone where not a single member of the top 5 has a championship ring.

Class Talent Grade: B

2011

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Diego State
2. Minnesota Timberwolves: Kyrie Irving, PG, Duke
3. Utah Jazz: Klay Thompson, SG, Washington State
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Jimmy Butler, SG, Marquette
5. Toronto Raptors: Kemba Walker, PG, UCONN

The 2011 class is one of the deepest of the 21st century…and Minnesota still managed to screw it up. There was talent all across the board. Kawhi at 15, Tobias Harris at 19, Kenneth Faried at 22, Bojan Bogdanovic at 28, Jimmy Butler at 30, Chandler Parsons at 38, and Isaiah Thomas at 60. This re-draft was pretty tricky. If I had written this article a few years ago Kyrie would have been the obvious #2 pick, but his disastrous tenure in Boston really made me rethink this pick. However, he is such a dynamic offensive player, and hit one of the biggest shots in NBA history. With a gun to my head, I would rather start my team with Kyrie over Klay. In this re-draft, the Cavs get to build around Butler and Kawhi, not too shabby.

Class Talent Grade: A

2012

1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF, Kentucky
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Damian Lillard, PG, Weber State
3. Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal, SG, Florida
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Draymond Green, PF, Michigan State
5. Sacramento Kings: Khris Middleton, SG, Texas A&M

2012’s Draft marks the first time ever that a pair of college teammates went back-to-back with the 1st and 2nd overall picks. Unfortunately for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, he didn’t make the cut in our re-draft. This draft was filled with a ton of prospects who just never panned out and are already out of the league. Guys like Perry Jones III, Tyler Zeller, Jared Sullinger, Terrence Jones, Thomas Robinson, and Kendall Marshall just to name a few. On the flip-side, there were a lot of future all-stars, but if you didn’t draft one of them you most likely ended up with a complete bust. Draymond Green has had a very decorated career, but damn it his career numbers are just not impressive whatsoever. 9 PPG, 7 RPG, and 5 APG on 43% shooting and 31% from three. After the year Bradley Beal had in 2019, he has to jump Draymond in the 2012 re-draft. Probably the hardest decision I had to make in the entire 19 re-drafts was what to do with Sacramento’s 2012 pick: Drummond vs. Middleton. With the way today’s game is played in the 3-ball era, I have to pick Middleton here. He’s a career 40% 3-point shooter, a good defender, and he’s an excellent FT shooter. The fact of the matter is that Drummond cannot be on the court in the last five minutes of games because of his poor shooting at the line. Teams hack-a-Shaq him and he just can’t be relied upon late in the fourth quarter. When your best player doesn’t see the floor during the most crucial minutes of a game, that’s a problem.

Class Talent Grade: B

2013

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF, Greece
2. Orlando Magic: Rudy Gobert, C, France
3. Washington Wizards: CJ McCollum, SG, Lehigh 
4. Charlotte Bobcats: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
5. Phoenix Suns: Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh

The 2013 Draft gave us the biggest draft bust in NBA history: Anthony Bennett. 2013’s class was a complete crapshoot. Giannis at 15, Gobert at 27, and both Seth Curry & Robert Covington went undrafted. I truly wanted to drop Gobert down to #4 because of his COVID-19 shenanigans, but he’s the best defensive center in the league and a career 64% shooter. It was another tough decision at the 5th pick between Steven Adams & Otto Porter. Their career numbers are pretty similar, but Adams has been in a ton of big games, and performed really well, so slight edge to him. This class’ talent grade is completely saved by having the best player in the league in Giannis. If not for him, we’re probably looking at a D-.

Class Talent Grade: C- 

2014

1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Joel Embiid, C, Kansas
2. Milwaukee Bucks: Nikola Jokic, C, Serbia
3. Philadelphia 76ers: Andrew Wiggins, SF, Kansas
4. Orlando Magic: Zach Lavine, SG, UCLA
5. Utah Jazz: Clint Capela, C, HOU

It is now year six for every player selected in the 2014 Draft and the class has just five combined All-Star game appearances (3 by Embiid, 2 by Jokic). No other player taken in this draft has even sniffed an ASG, making it an extremely hard draft to re-classify. 2014’s class had an absolute monopoly on role players, which isn’t an insult. Some drafts have a lot of stars, but the rest just bust or never pan out. 2014’s class had a ton of quality starters and solid bench guys like Joe Harris, Elfrid Payton, Jordan Clarkson, Dario Saric, Rodney Hood, T.J. Warren, Doug McDermott, Dwight Powell, and Jerami Grant. The one thing I keep coming back to in this class is just how much we judge a player based on their contract. Wiggins signed a $130 million contract, Capela signed for $90 million, and Julius Randle is making $21 million a year. All of them are overpaid and we as fans skew our perceptions of them based on the dollar signs. However, Wiggins, Capela, and Lavine were all in the upper-echelon of this class despite how overpaid they are. Two guys who were fighting for the top 5, but just didn’t get there were Aaron Gordon and Spencer Dinwiddie. Dinwiddie has struggled mightily with injuries throughout his career and Aaron Gordon has only averaged 12.7 PPG and 6.4 RPG in his career. A tough re-draft for sure, but I don’t have any qualms with it.

Class Talent Grade: C+

2015

1. Minnesota Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky
2. Los Angeles Lakers: Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
3. Philadelphia 76ers: Kristaps Porzingis, C, Spain
4. New York Knicks: D’Angelo Russell, PG, Ohio State 
5. Orlando Magic: Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville 

The year is now 2015…and this is somehow, SOMEHOW the first time the Knicks have appeared in the top 5. How is this possible?!?!?!?! I’ll never forget the reign of boos that came down from Knicks fans when Porzingis’ name was called out by Adam Silver at the Barclays Center. For the #3 pick, it’s hard to argue Russell over Porzingis, because the point guard position nowadays is so stacked. Russell isn’t even a top 15 floor general in the league right now. When healthy, Porzingis is one of the best big men in the league. He’s a great defensive player and a solid 3-point shooter for a guy who’s 7’3″. Not to mention, Porzingis never destroyed locker room chemistry like D’Angelo did. There were a lot of misses in this draft too like Mario Hezonja, Cameron Payne, and Stanley Johnson. Not to mention, 15 of the 30 second round selections never logged a single minute of NBA action. Overall, a pretty average draft class.

Class Talent Grade: C+

2016

1. Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons, PG, LSU
2. Los Angeles Lakers: Brandon Ingram, SF, Duke
   
3. Boston Celtics: Pascal Siakam, SF, New Mexico State
4. Phoenix Suns: Jaylen Brown, SG, California
5. Minnesota Timberwolves: Malcolm Brodgon, PG, Virginia 

The 2016 class got off to a really strange start. Joel Embiid is classified as a rookie in 2016, Ben Simmons sat out, and Pascal Siakam averaged just 4 PPG. It also ended with Malcolm Brogdon going home with the ROY trophy averaging just 10 PPG. What is so challenging about re-doing this class is picks 2-4 are all similar players, who play the same position, and are all still really young. I think after the year we saw in 2020, Ingram has to be considered the best player behind Simmons. Siakam is such a dynamic player and had some monster games in the 2019 Finals, so slight edge above Brown at #3. Brogdon vs. Jamal Murray was a tough call as well, I personally would rather start my team with Brogdon who has career averages of 47%, 39%, and 90%.

Class Talent Grade: B+

2017

1. Philadelphia 76ers: Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke
2. Los Angeles Lakers: Donovan Mitchell, SG, Louisville
3. Boston Celtics: De’Aaron Fox, PG, Kentucky
4. Phoenix Suns: Bam Adebayo, C, Kentucky
5. Sacramento Kings: John Collins, PF, Wake Forest

I don’t like to toot my own horn(yes I do). For this re-draft, I wanted to pull an excerpt from an article I wrote a few weeks after this draft happened:

He gets to play with other good players on a team that won a playoff series last year. He’ll actually get big minutes unlike if he was chosen by GSW or SA. I think Donovan Mitchell is the steal of the draft…I’m all in on Mitchell stock.

Alright, self praise over. Pre-draft, 2017’s class was touted as one of the deepest drafts in recent memory. Unfortunately for a lot of the teams in the lottery, there were a lot of guys who haven’t really panned out. Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith Jr., and Malik Monk wouldn’t sniff the lottery if we re-drafted all 60 picks. This is where the re-drafts get pretty challenging. We only have ~2.5 years of data on these guys and their careers could wind up being wildly different in 10 years. The first four picks in this re-draft are pretty much etched in stone, but there were a lot of options for the 5th pick in this class. You could go Lonzo, Jonathon Isaac, Jarrett Allen, etc. but you can’t argue with John Collins back-to-back 20 & 10 seasons on nearly 60% shooting. We’ll see if the careers of Fultz, Lonzo, and Monk will turn around in the future, but for now this is the top 5 for the 2017 class.

Class Talent Grade: B+

2018

1. Phoenix Suns: Luka Doncic, SF, Spain 
2. Sacramento Kings: Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma
3. Atlanta Hawks: Jaren Jackson Jr., PF, Michigan State
4. Memphis Grizzlies: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, SG, Kentucky
5. Dallas Mavericks: Deandre Ayton, C, Arizona

Much like 2017, no one knows what the future will hold for these players. Injuries, trades, massive improvements, who knows? But for right now this list is pretty effortless. Doncic, Trae, and JJJ are the clear 1, 2, & 3. It’s a tough call at #4 between SGA and Ayton, but Ayton was just born in the wrong decade. Ayton has a career 3-point percentage of just 17% and he doesn’t protect the paint particularly very well. In 2020, your big men have to be able to stretch the floor a little bit, even if it’s just to make the defense think you’re going to take a three. If he can work on his outside game, he can definitely make his way up the board. Another interesting player who flirted with the top five was Michael Porter Jr., but right now he just hasn’t played enough to prove he will be better than Ayton or SGA. I’m really  high on MPJ, and I think in 15 years he will be in the top 5 of the 2018 re-draft.

Class Talent Grade: A

2019

1. New Orleans Pelicans: Zion Williamson, PF, Duke
2. Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Maront, PG, Murray State
3. New York Knicks: Tyler Herro, SG, Kentucky
4. Los Angeles Lakers: Brandon Clarke, PF, Gonzaga
5. Cleveland Cavaliers: Eric Paschall, PF, Villanova

The big takeaway from the 2019 Draft was how much Memphis killed this draft. Ja Morant is set to win ROY, Brandon Clarke is shooting 62% from the field and 41% from three, and they are the 8th seed in the West right now. It hasn’t even been a year since these guys were selected, so who knows what their careers will end up looking like. For this re-draft, I would sum it up as this is my NBA All-Rookie First Team selections for the 2019-2020 season(Kendrick Nunn was class of 2018). The biggest shock here on this do-over is that RJ Barrett didn’t crack the top 5. Barrett’s career hasn’t gotten off to the start many Knicks fans had hoped. He missed 10 games and was a terribly inefficient scorer. He shot just 40% from the field and 60% from the charity stripe. I think Barrett will turn it around, but it’s just too early to tell. However right now, these are the five best rookies of the 2019 class.

Class Talent Grade: B-

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