Reasons You Shouldn’t be Afraid to Draft an Elite Quarterback

Wait on a quarterback. Do not draft an elite quarterback. What they’re really saying is do not draft Patrick Mahomes. And you know what, don’t draft Josh Allen or Kyler Murray either. Take Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson off your board too. Do not draft any of these players.

We often hear the “wait on quarterback” industry standard and it doesn’t sound so bad that way. It can even make a great deal of sense, but what they’re really saying is “do not draft Patrick Mahomes. Don’t draft Lamar Jackson or Dak Prescott or Kyler Murray or Josh Allen either. Don’t draft any of them.” Telling someone to “wait on quarterbacks” certainly has a nicer ring to it than “don’t draft Patrick Mahomes”. But that’s the industry standard nowadays and when they tell you to wait on quarterbacks, that’s exactly what they’re telling you to do.

This article isn’t meant to change that line of thinking or to even say that it’s wrong. It’s to put a counter-argument out there to that notion. It’s to take the fear away from drafting an elite quarterback. At its absolute bones, it seems like malpractice to advise someone against drafting the players who score the most points, provide incredible consistency week-to-week and have the lowest injury rates among fantasy players. Now certainly there are reasons as to why that it is advised. It wouldn’t be so widely popular if there weren’t, but what about the flip side?

All we’re doing in fantasy football is trying to give ourselves the most optimal chance to win each week. The week before and the week after the present week are irrelevant. They play no factor in the outcome of the week you’re in. So if we’re just rocking out a bunch of one-week seasons, why are we so opposed to having the five players that score the most points in the entire league on a consistent basis? 

The Argument for an Elite Quarterback

The “wait on quarterbacks” has been a mainstay for the past 15 years. However, things change and we need to evolve. We are witnessing an explosion in NFL offenses and that explosion is being driven by an increase in passing volume. The top-tier quarterbacks are scoring 25+ points per game (PPG) every single week. Their explosions can be 40 or more. That’s game over. Don’t get me wrong, I know it’s possible for you to still lose with a 40-point game from your quarterback, but the odds are ever in your favor. 

The single-season passing yardage, set by Peyton Manning in 2013, is 5,477. Through four games this year, Dak Prescott has 1,690 passing yards. He’s on pace for 6,760. (Not a typo. 6-7-6-0.)

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) October 5, 2020

To show how much the game is changing we need to look at the past. In 2013, just eight seasons ago, there were only two quarterbacks who averaged more than 20 points per game. Of course, we should be waiting on quarterback with averages like that. That’s because quarterbacks didn’t score the most points per game. Running backs did. That is no longer the case.

The QB12 in 2013 averaged 16.89. QB3 was at 20.01. Just over three points is the difference between the two. The QB12 in 2021 averaged 18.48 PPG and the QB3 was at 24.42. Now the difference has ballooned to six points per game. And not just that, but we had four quarterbacks (five if you include Dak Prescott) average over 24 PPG. The evolution of the NFL has led to some truly historic seasons from the elite tier of quarterbacks. 

On the flip side, the fantasy football industry is all about drafting Travis Kelce early because of positional advantage and positional scarcity. Kelce averaged 17.4 PPG last year. The TE12 averaged 8.5 PPG. The difference here is 8.9 PPG. Patrick Mahomes (QB1) outscored Matt Ryan (QB12) by over seven points per game. It’s not quite the difference Kelce had vs his No. 12 counterpart, but it’s close. The statistical advantage is just as apparent. If we’re all about taking Travis Kelce because of the point advantage he provides on a weekly basis, why are we against it for Patrick Mahomes?

Week Winning Upside of an Elite Quarterback

All we’re trying to do in fantasy football is win our current week. That’s it. It’s really simple. The chart below shows the top-13 quarterbacks last season. You’ll see in parenthesis their point per game average and how many games they played. You’ll then find how many games they scored less than 10, less than 15, more than 30 and more than 35. To be clear, if you scored less than 10 that game is not also counted as being less than 15. So to get a total of how many games they scored under 15 in total, you’ll need to add both columns.

The point of this table is to illustrate how much upside you’re getting when you draft an elite quarterback. You’re also minimizing the risks that come with the back-end QB1’s. For instance, Tom Brady scored under 15 points five times last season. That’s quite a hole he’s putting you in almost a third of the fantasy season. Matt Ryan scored less than 15 six times. That’s dangerous and not in a good way, like Maverick was dangerous. More “dangerous” like, Slider.

The highest-drafted quarterbacks in terms of ADP last year were Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, and DeShaun Watson. The only difference we’ll see this year is in regards to DeShaun Watson whose circumstances will eliminate him from being an elite quarterback selection and I would expect Russell Wilson’s ADP to fall more in line with Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert than with Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott. This leaves us with Mahomes, Prescott, Murray, Allen, and Jackson as our elite quarterbacks who will require an early pick to get on your team. Five quarterbacks.

Those five quarterbacks combined for 12 games with 30 or more points out of 67 games in 2020. They also had another eight games with more than 35+ points. 20/67 games these five guys scored 30+. Or 30%. If my quarterback scores 30+, I’m feeling incredibly confident I’m going to win my matchup. The other nine guys on the list (not including DeShaun Watson) had 16 such games. Out of 126 games. Or 12.6%. Think about the advantage you’re getting there.

Kyler Murray’s career is off to a pretty decent start…#AZCardinals pic.twitter.com/t9ZoNuE65M

— Raising Zona (@RaisingZona) June 4, 2021

On the flip side, our elite five guys only had five games out of 67 with under 15 points. Our other nine quarterbacks had 25. 5/67 vs 25/126. 7% vs 20%. So what does this tell us? How do these numbers look on a 16-game schedule?

Our elite five quarterbacks average one game with under 15 points. The other top-13 quarterbacks average three such games. The elite five quarterabcks average five games with 30 points or more, while the other quarterbacks are at two. What we’re truly seeing here is a difference in five games.

Generally speaking, if my quarterback scores less than 15 points, I know I’m in trouble. On the other side of that, if my quarterback drops 30 or more, I’m feeling very confident in my chances. It’s certainly possible to win with a 15 point performance out of your quarterback, just as it’s possible to lose with a 30+ one. But fantasy football is all about playing the odds and I really like my odds if I have a 30+ point per from my quarterback.

Even if there’s one fluky game in those five, a 30+ point game you lose or a sub-15 point game you win, that elite quarterback is almost single handily winning or not losing you four games. Because again, if my quarterback scores less than 15, I’m chalking that one up as a loss, just like I’m chalking up a 30+ point game up as a win. Four games.

If you’re playing in a 12-team, 13-week regular season league, you’ll find that you almost always make the playoffs with an 8-5 record and depending on the year, a 7-6 record can even sneak in there too. If an elite quarterback can directly impact four wins, we’re halfway there to a playoff berth. Off the back of one play. No one except a healthy Christian McCaffrey impacts wins in the way an elite quarterback can.

No More Streamers

We’ve all been burned by streaming quarterbacks. I know I have. Last year, I started Derek Carr in a smash spot against the Atlanta Falcons. He didn’t even score two points. Want to guess if I won or lost?

Another added benefit to having an elite quarterback, if the week-winning upside wasn’t enough for you, is that you don’t have to mess around with starting Jared Goff or Teddy Bridgewater anymore. You can kiss streaming quarterbacks goodbye. Trust me, this is a good thing. A very good thing, not just because of the points scored argument, but because you free up an additional roster spot for a lottery ticket.

Below is a table of the quarterbacks who finished 15-25 in the overall standings last year. These are the guys that are typically streamed. Most leagues have a few teams rostering two quarterbacks, which is why I used 15-25. Scores in green indicate a game where that quarterback played against a bottom-10 pass defense in terms of passing yards allowed. Scores in red indicate a game where that quarterback played a top-10 pass defense.

The first thing we’re going to do is eliminate all the scores in red. They don’t matter. We’re certainly not starting any of these quarterbacks in bad matchups. That leaves us with 49 other games. 24 would have been identified as being plus-matchups with the other 25 being okay, but not ideal streaming circumstances.

In those 24 games where the matchup was identified to be a positive they scored 411.5 points. This amounts to a 17.14 PPG. When we factor in all of the other games not in red, they combined for 840.2 points out of 49 games. Ironically enough, 17.14 PPG. This isn’t terrible of course, but if you’re playing against Patrick Mahomes when he drops a 30-spot, you’re already trying to make up 13 points.

Out of these plus-matchups however, there are three games where they didn’t even score 10 points (12.5% of the time). There are another eight games where they didn’t even break 15 (33%). This means that 46% of the time, our primary streamers in the best of situations, didn’t even score 15 points. Almost half of the time. That’s not even the worst thing. The worst thing is there’s no upside. We only have one game where these streamers scored more than 30 points. One!

If we look at all 49 streamable games, we only have three games where the quarterback scores 30+ points. There are seven games where they failed to break just 10 points. There are another 14 games where they failed to score 15. Only 6% of the time our streaming quarterbacks scored 30+. 43% of the time our streamers failed to score just 15 points. Wouldn’t you like to avoid this situation?

The Viability of Other Positions

The only downside to selecting an elite quarterback is the draft capital it takes to acquire one. In years past when the “wait on quarterbacks” strategy was taking off, NFL offenses weren’t scoring 25+ PPG. Because of that there simply weren’t as many startable players available. Which made our higher draft picks more valuable. This is no longer the case. The market is flooded with quality players.

Using Fantasydata.com’s ADP to draft Patrick Mahomes, you need to pass on George Kittle, Joe Mixon, D’Andre Swift, and Keenan Allen. To draft Josh Allen you need to pass on Julio Jones, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper and Kareem Hunt. Kyler Murray requires you to pass on Chris Godwin, Robert Woods, CeeDee Lamb and Myles Gaskin.

Let’s look at these names. George Kittle seems to be always be on the injury report and he finds himself possibly catching passes from a rookie quarterback. Joe Mixon is an injury risk himself and is incredibly inconsistent. D’Andre Swift has workload questions and he plays on a terrible offense. Patrick Mahomes has no concerns. I know exactly what I’m getting out of Patrick Mahomes. You know it. The people you’re drafting with know it. Joe Mixon is just as likely to be a back-end RB2 than an RB1 and the same goes for D’Andre Swift.

For Josh Allen, I have to pass on Julio Jones, a 32 year old wide receiver whose name is permanently attached to the injury report. Or Mike Evans, who after seeing his target share decrease in consecutive seasons now has to fight for Tom Brady’s attention with Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown healthy for 16 games. I need to pass on Kareem Hunt to draft Josh Allen? He isn’t even the starting running back on his own team? Sign me up.

Here’s our projection of Josh Allen’s 2021 season! pic.twitter.com/75chtiR0GU

— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) June 1, 2021

As previously mentioned, with the elite quarterbacks there are no question marks. The injury risk as it pertains to quarterbacks are much lower than the other positions. How many second-round picks flop from year to year? Does anyone have any “bust” concerns when it relates to our top-5 elite quarterbacks? I didn’t think so.

I get the point there are late-round quarterbacks who explode and can send your roster into overdrive. Last year there was Justin Hebert. I get it. But isn’t that true for every position? James Robinson and Chase Claypool say hello. We can find late-round gems at every position. Every single year. They don’t just happen at quarterback. In fact, they are more likely to happen at the other positions simply by virtue of there being so many more running backs and wide receivers in the league than quarterbacks. So why not draft the safest players in the game who just so happens to score the most points and hope to hit on one of those positional lottery picks later in the draft or on the waiver wire?

As much as I get the fear of passing on some of these other big positional names, we’re seeing such an offensive explosion the difference between a WR2 and a WR3 is becoming more and more minimal. Last year, Brandin Cooks finished as the WR17 in full-PPR leagues with a 15.5 PPG average. Tyler Boyd, WR29 averaged 12.8 PPG. A difference of just 2.7 PPG. On a PPG basis, Jamison Crowder was WR25 with a 14.3 average. DeVante Parker, WR41 was at 11.9. That’s a difference of only 2.4 points, but a full 16 spots. The point I’m making with these averages is while passing on Keenan Allen might hurt, there are so many wide receivers available you’ll be able to find a viable replacement.

Final Thoughts on Drafting an Elite Quarterback

The argument against the elite quarterback is at the end of the season, everyone goes back and looks at the points per game totals and argues there’s not a big difference between QB3 and QB12. Except that number is growing and growing. Back in 2013, the difference was three and now it’s six. However, I’m not interested in the points per game argument. We can make that anywhere. As I did with WR17 and WR29 or WR25 and WR41. What I am interested in is how many games these players are going to help me win.

That’s what it’s all about anyway, right? At the end of the day, we’re aiming to win eight games and score the most points. If that’s your goal, there’s no harm in drafting an elite quarterback. They score the most points. They are the most consistent players week to week. And they have the highest weekly scoring output. The other thing you rarely have to worry about is injuries.

Eventually, in every sport, a team starts to zig when everyone else is zagging. Each league is a copycat one. The Golden State Warriors changed the NBA with their three-point shooting offense. The Chiefs are changing the NFL with their all-out offensive assault. MLB has changed into a strikeout or home run game. We see every sport go through fundamental changes in how it’s played and how it’s won. Why does fantasy football have to be any different? We’ve been saying “wait on quarterbacks” forever, but now we’re seeing a select group of elite quarterbacks put up video game numbers.

Just like every other sport has adapted and changed its formula and winning strategy, don’t be afraid to do the same. When everyone else is passing on Patrick Mahomes for Joe Mixon (seriously?!), don’t be afraid to select the highest-scoring fantasy player in the game. The NFL game is changing and fantasy football should be changing with it. The elite quarterbacks directly impact the win columns in a way very few other players can.

Go ahead. Draft those elite quarterbacks and embrace the victories they’ll surely bring you. Thanks for reading and be sure to check out my other work @RobFFAddict.

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