There were many winners and losers of the 2021 NFL Draft. These are the few men who went into the draft on the fringe and came out with a clear path to fantasy relevance.
Jared Goff (QB) Detroit Lions
Ever since acquiring Jared Goff from the Rams, Detroit’s staff has done an excellent job affirming their belief in the 26-year-old QB. We now know the Lions mean what they say. Detroit refused to sign a veteran free-agent QB, and they passed on Justin Fields and Mac Jones in the first round of the draft.
What was their first-round pick? An offensive lineman to protect Goff.
Not only is Detroit’s pick a vote of confidence, but it’s what Goff needs to help him succeed. In 2020, Goff’s pressured completion percentage ranked 23rd at 38%. When given a clean pocket, his completion percentage skyrocketed to 75.1%. A better line can also help D’Andre Swift and the rushing game, which will open up play action more. Goff excelled with play-action passes last season, ranking 9th with a 69.4% completion percentage. Pretty cool, right Jared?
Detroit also grabbed USC standout WR Amon-Ra St. Brown in the 4th round. He’ll fit well in the slot. The rookie could become a 3rd option also behind Swift & TJ Hockenson.
Feel free to ‘go to Jared’ for a backup option in 2QB leagues.
ADP – 199.30
Zach Moss (RB) Buffalo Bills
The Bills’ RB may not be considered a ‘sleeper’ by some, but Zach Moss’ ADP sure says he’s one. His ADP as of May 10th is 100.00, which is behind Leonard Fournette & Trey Sermon. I’m just not sure how Moss can fall behind two guys on two of the most unpredictable backfields in the NFL. Not only is Moss the better pick, but he was solidified as the RB2/1 in Buffalo after the Bills decided not to draft a running back with any of their picks.
Moss and the Buffalo backfield were not good in 2020. Moss only averaged 37 yards/game, and Devin Singletary averaged 42.9 yds/g. Together, they only accumulated 1,168 total rushing yards on the season. Another dismal stat: they finished with a combined seven total touchdowns. You get the point.
There is hope. Instead of going after new running backs this offseason, the Bills added depth to their offensive line. Buffalo signed two OL free agents and drafted three others.
I have to go with Moss when it comes to the two RB’s in Buffalo. A timeshare is likely, but the advantage goes to Moss simply because of the trust the coaching staff displayed in the rookie. In 2020, Moss out-touched Singletary in the red zone (2.3 p/g v. 1.7 p/g) and was only two goal-line carries behind Singletary despite playing in three fewer games.
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The best statistical advantages for Moss come in the deep dive. Moss recorded a -5.3 EPA (130th) while Singletary posted a -12.0 EPA (167th). Neither is very good, but ranking 30 spots higher than your competition is significant. Another advantage for Moss: Juke Rate. Moss finished 7th in the league in 2020 with a 29.4% juke rate. Singletary came in at 29th with a 21.6% rate.
Get Moss(ed).
Tre’Quan Smith (WR) New Orleans Saints
The 4th-year wideout now has a clear path to become the Saints’ #2 behind Michael Thomas. Not only did Emmanuel Sanders leave in free agency, but New Orleans didn’t draft a WR until the 7th round.
The door is wide open for Smith.
Sanders was leaned on heavily in 2020. Thomas missed nine games. As a result, Sanders finished 2nd on the team in receptions (61) behind Alvin Kamara. Sanders’ numbers may not be too impressive at face value, but he only accounted for a 19% target share.
Much of the blame for Sanders’ low target share, the Saints didn’t look downfield.
Both Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill will likely be looking downfield more than Drew Brees. In 2020, Brees ranked 3rd from last among all qualifying quarterbacks with an average of 6.3 intended air yards. In stark contrast, Winston led the league in yards per pass attempt (10.5 p/a) in 2019, and Hill’s passer rating was above league average on all his throws beyond 10 yards. Hill was at, or below, average on all throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
New Orleans’ offense could look quite a bit different than years past, and that could be a good thing for Smith. Also, if Thomas misses any time, it will officially be #SmithSZN.
ADP – 168.80
Darnell Mooney (WR) Chicago Bears
The Bears’ 2nd-year wideout is one of my favorite sleepers of 2021. Chicago seems to believe in him as their WR2. They waited until the 6th round to grab a WR (Dazz Newsome, North Carolina) and didn’t make any significant WR signings in free agency. Mooney’s stock could increase even more if the Bears eventually trade Anthony Miller.
Miller became expendable, in part, because of Mooney. Miller failed to reach a 70% snap rate every week in 2020 except one. Meanwhile, Mooney recorded a 74% or higher snap rate ten times. Mooney’s overall snap share (76.4%) was even higher than fellow rookies CeeDee Lamb and Henry Ruggs.
Mooney can also pair well with Andy Dalton before Justin Fields takes over. Out of Mooney’s 61 catches in 2020, just two came in the middle of the field. That aligns well with Dalton, who ranked within or above league average in passer rating on the outside. Dalton also excels in play-action. He was 9th in play-action completion percentage (69.4%) in 2020. Mooney posted a 75.7% catch rate in play-action last year compared to a 54.1% rate out of it.
When Justin Fields takes over the starting job, it should rocket Darnell to the moon(ey).
ADP – 126.80
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