There was a chance we weren’t going to even have a football season this year, but the NFL pulled it off. And it is finally time for the big game itself, the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl is a fun day for a football fan, so I will have fun with it and do something a little different with my article. Since there is obviously only one game to pick, I will also be giving you my pick on some prop bets and maybe even some novelty props. According to the Super Bowl 55 odds here, the Kansas City Chiefs are -170 favorites to win the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay will have the advantage of playing a home game but they are entering as the underdogs (+145). Last week my picks went 6-0 on props and 8-2 overall. Below are my Super Bowl best bets against the spread and prop bets.
My SuperBowl Picks
Kasas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3), O/U 56.5
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs will try to win back to back Super Bowls. The bye week between the Conference Championship game is a blessing for the Chiefs because it gives Patrick Mahomes a chance to get healthier. Also, it gives Clyde Edwards-GHelaire and Sammy Watkins another week to rehab the injuries that have kept them out of the playoffs.
The Chiefs will look to have running back Edwards-Helaire along with Leveon Bell and Darrell Williams ready for the Super Bowl. Williams has held down the fort in their two playoff wins, but against the top rush defense in the league, it will be good to have Edwards-Helaire and Bell back from injury. The Chiefs are only ranked 19th in rush offense, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The Chiefs use their running game to set up and compliment the passing game more than anything. As long as they can have a few key big plays throughout the game, they should be fine.
Mahomes suffered multiple injuries against the Browns earlier in the playoffs, but the most lingering injury seems to be his turf toe. Hopefully, for the Chiefs, he will be even healthier than he was against the Bills. The Chiefs are the top passing offense, but they need to watch out for the Buccaneers pass rush. The Buccaneers are only 21st in pass defense, but their strength is the defensive line. The Buccaneers are ranked 3rd in pressure percentage at 27.9 percent. Mahomes will need to manipulate the pocket and avoid sacks as much as possible. He will need to use Travis Kelce and his running backs when he gets pressured. If he can stay out of trouble and throw down the field a few times throughout the game, the Chiefs should be successful.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Packers and, in doing so, are the first team in NFL history to play the Super Bowl at home. Besides that piece of history, there is another piece of history as well. Quarterback Tom Brady will be playing his 10th Super Bowl and is trying to win an incredible seventh championship. Will the Buccaneers be able to pull it off against high powered Chiefs is the question.
In the running game, the Buccaneers will lean on Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones. Jones is coming off an injury but will look to be Fournettes compliment in the running game. Fournette is a veteran who has been trying to get to the Super Bowl his entire career, so he will for sure put his best effort forward in the Super Bowl. The Buccaneers are ranked 29th in the running game, but the Chiefs are only 21st against the run on defense. The Chiefs bend, but don’t break type of defense will need to keep the Buccaneers in check. Both running backs will also need to be a part of the passing game for the Buccaneers to succeed.
Brady is proving that he can still be a successful quarterback in the NFL even though he is no longer in New England. Out of Wide receivers Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin the Buccaneers will need two of the three to have a good game if they want to win. The Buccaneers 2nd ranked pass offense will be going against a defense that is ranked 14th against the pass in the NFL. The key in the passing game this week will be tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate. Between Week 11 through Week 17 the Chiefs defense was ranked 31st against tight ends. And in the playoffs, they haven’t been much better. Look for Brady to target Gronkowski and Brate often in the Superbowl.
My Picks
Super Bowl LV is a matchup between arguably the greatest quarterback of all time and arguably the best quarterback currently in the NFL. I think both teams will be able to score throughout the game. The Chiefs will try and not have a slow start as they have in the past, but it usually turns out good for them even if they do. Unfortunately, I don’t think they can get too far behind the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl if they want to win. The Buccaneers defense will be able to pressure Mahomes, but will it be enough to win the game. I think Brady and Mahomes will both have great games, but this game is a passing of the torch in the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs -3, Over 56.5
Prop Bets
Patrick Mahomes O/U 325.5 Pass Yards: OVER (-112)
Tom Brady O/U 288 Pass Yards: OVER (-112)
Tom Brady O/U 0.5 Rush Yards: OVER (+120)
Darrell Williams O/U 12.5 Rec Yards: OVER (+101)
Travis Kelce O/U 94.5 Rec Yards: UNDER (+101)
Cameron Brate O/U 29.5 Rec Yards: OVER (-112)
Sammy Watkins O/U 3.5 Receptions: UNDER (-112)
Mike Evans To Score: YES (+110)
Novelty Props
Coin Toss Outcome Heads or Tails: Tails (-103)
Jersey Number Of First Touchdown Scorer – Including Overtime O/U 24.5: OVER (-121)
Jersey Number Of Last Touchdown Scorer – Including Overtime O/U 24.5: UNDER (-103)
Will The Game Be Tied Again After 0-0: YES (–130)
Final Play Of Game Will be A Quarterback Kneel: YES (-200)
Outcome Of First Coaches Challenge: PLAY STANDS: (-112)
