Miami has scored but an embarrassing 17 points this season, so the O/U 45.5 with Las Vegas isn’t exactly shocking. However, the red-hot Raiders have a shot to blow their four-point spread out of the water.
Embed from Getty ImagesDerek Carr leads the league in passing yards with 817. The quarterback with the second-most passing yards (Kyler Murray) is nearly 140 yards behind him. This speaks volumes for the potential of Carr’s primary receivers, Darren Waller, Henry Ruggs, and Hunter Renfrow, even against the Dolphins intimidating secondary.
Waller, Ruggs, Renfrow
Carr similarly leads the league in pass attempts and 28% of his 93 targets have gone to tight end Waller. Waller is second only to Travis Kelce in yards among tight ends with 170. Waller shredded Miami in their matchup late last year for 112 yards as he outmatches safety Eric Rowe in all variables.
Embed from Getty ImagesRuggs has demonstrated his maturity thus far this season, bursting out with 159 yards and a score. He is averaging nearly 23 yards per reception, ranking in the top ten among receivers. Ruggs will be looking to redeem himself against the Dolphins this week, as their secondary terrorized him last year and left him without a catch.
The second-most targeted Las Vegas receiver is Hunter Renfrow, getting 17% of the target share, mostly out of the slot. Renfrow had five receptions last season against the Dolphins. With the Raiders’ inept running game, Renfrow is going to be utilized heavily against Miami as a reliable short pass option.
Dolphin’s Defense
The Dolphin’s defense is going to have their hands full. Xavien Howard’s reputation certainly carries its own weight. Still, with Miami blitzing third-most in the league, Carr’s receivers are often going to find themselves in single coverage. Even so, Las Vegas is more likely to use the Waller advantage in this game. The Dolphins have given up 10 receptions and a touchdown to opposing tight ends. And they haven’t faced an elite tight end yet this season.
Miami is also a demoralized offense right now. Even against a burnable Raiders defense, they will have trouble staying on the field. Normally, considering this might spell worry for receivers, as they might not be vital if Las Vegas gains a large enough lead. Luckily for these guys, the Raiders don’t have the running ability to sustain a lead for very long.
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They say if you repeat an action for three weeks, it becomes a habit. My money is on the Raiders leading the league in passing yards per game becoming a habit with their explosive pass catching crew.
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