Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/2)

Introduction

My Opening Day home run predictions only resulted in one long ball, I knew I should have put Giancarlo Stanton in my lineup over Aaron Judge. Oh well, I was still able to have four of my hitters score at least 15 FanDuel points which is solid on any slate. Monday’s recommendations will focus on the nine-game main slate that is light on quality starting pitching which opens up a lot of hitting options.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

C – Yasmani Grandal (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Grandal hit 20 out of his 22 homers against righties last season with a .236 ISO. He will face righty Taijuan Walker who allowed a massive 2.61 HR/9 to lefties in Arizona last season. Stack up those cheap Dodgers left-handed bats.

1B – Justin Smoak (TOR) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Smoak is coming off a two-homer game on Sunday and will face White Sox right-hander Reynaldo Lopez who has allowed 1.86 HR/9 to lefties in his career.

2B – Jason Kipnis (CLE) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Second base is a tough position to fill with a HR threat on this slate. Kipnis still has some pop and will face Angels’ right-hander JC Ramirez who allowed 2.36 HR/9 to lefties at home last season.

3B – Alex Bregman (HOU) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,300) – BvP isn’t the first thing I look at but it is part of my process. Bregman is a perfect 3-for-3 with two bombs against Chris Tillman in his career. Small sample, sure, but Tillman did give up 2.82 HR/9 to righties last season.

SS – Corey Seager (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Seager is off to a slow start (1-for-11) but he has a career .380 wOBA and .203 ISO against righties and is another Dodgers’ lefty bat that could take advantage of Walker and the wind blowing out to right field in the desert.

OF – George Springer (HOU) (FanDuel: $4,000 / DraftKings: $5,200) – Springer led off the season with a HR and I wouldn’t be surprised if he did the same in the Astros home opener. He had a .259 ISO at home versus righties last season and we know Tillman can give up the long ball.

OF – A.J. Pollock (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Pollock loves hitting at home in Arizona against a lefty with a career .403 wOBA and .273 ISO. He will face Dodgers left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu in a game with warm temps and the wind blowing out.

OF – Khris Davis (OAK) (FanDuel: $3,600 / DraftKings: $4,600) – I had to get one player in my lineup going against the soon to be 45-year-old Bartolo Colon. Colon allowed 1.70 HR/9 to righties last season, while Davis posted a .320 ISO at home against right-handers.

Longshot – Curtis Granderson (TOR) (FanDuel: $2,100 / DraftKings: $3,000) – Granderson give you cheap exposure to the Blue Jays lineup for a team with the 2nd highest Vegas implied run total, while hitting in the middle of the lineup against righty Lopez who has had issues with the long ball to lefties so far in his career.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Charlie Morton ($8,500), Mike Clevinger ($7,700), Sean Newcomb ($6,300)
DraftKings – Sean Newcomb ($7,600), Brian Johnson ($6,900)

Results

March 29

Overall

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