Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (4/7)

Well, I struck out on my first column this season, seems to be about the only thing I have written this year that hasn’t worked out so far. Oh well, today is a new day and I have a list of long ball hitters that I expect to get me off the schnide. Do people still say that, check out the urban dictionary link if you have no idea what I am talking about. Anyway, onto the picks for today.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Stephen Vogt (OAK) (FanDuel: $2,800 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Facing AJ Griffin who allowed a whopping 2.88 HR/9 to lefties last season.

1B – Carlos Santana (CLE) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Checks all the boxes playing in a good hitter’s park (Arizona) against a bad pitcher (Shelby Miller) with positive handiness splits (30 HR vs RHP with a .285 ISO last season)

2B – Rougned Odor (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,800) – Hit two homers to start the season and had a .247 ISO against righties last season. He will face A’s righty, Raul Alcantara, making just his sixth big league start.

SS – Francisco Lindor (CLE) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Lindor already has two homers this season and put up a .351 wOBA against righties last season.

3B – Manny Machado (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $5,600) – Back-to-back seasons with 35+ homers and has hit two homers against Yankees’ starter Luis Severino over the last two years in eight at-bats.

OF – Mark Trumbo (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Trumbo has also had Severino’s number with two long balls last season in six at-bats.

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OF – Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) (FanDuel: $3,400 / DraftKings: $4,700) – No homers yet this season, how long do you think that will last? Could hit is first against Mets’ Zach Wheeler making his first start since 2014.

OF – Khris Davis (OAK) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Hit two homers on opening day and facing a fly ball pitcher (AJ Griffin) in a hitter-friendly park (Texas).

Longshot – Matt Joyce (OAK) (FanDuel: $2,100 / DraftKings: $3,000) – As mentioned above Griffin allowed 2.88 HR/9 to lefties last season and Joyce is a cheap lefty with a career .196 ISO against righties and will play in a good hitter’s park in Texas.

 

Tuesday, April 4 –  Results

Date Pos Name HR FD Pts
4-Apr C Gary Sanchez 0 0.0
4-Apr 1B Mike Napoli 0 12.5
4-Apr 2B Robinson Cano 0 9.0
4-Apr SS Trevor Story 0 24.4
4-Apr 3B Nolan Arenado 0 15.7
4-Apr OF Charlie Blackmon 0 12.7
4-Apr OF Carlos Beltran 0 0.0
4-Apr OF Khris Davis 0 3.0
4-Apr Longshot Greg Bird 0 9.0

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 1 0 0.0% 0.00
1B 1 0 0.0% 12.50
2B 1 0 0.0% 9.00
SS 1 0 0.0% 24.40
3B 1 0 0.0% 15.70
OF 3 0 0.0% 5.23
Longshot 1 0 0.0% 9.00
Total 9 0 0.0% 9.59

 

If you have any suggestions or feedback for the article, follow me and hit me up on Twitter @Rotopilot

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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