Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/19)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

I was able to put together a solid three home run night with my Tuesday lineup in what was a very high scoring night of baseball as expected.  The Friday night slate shouldn’t be as simple to land on some home run hitters with some good pitchers on the slate and no Coors, Wrigley (at least not at night), or much wind blowing out. So, we will need to dig a little deeper to uncover some long ball hitters by looking to BvP a little more than usual tonight.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Chris Herrmann (ARI) (FanDuel: $2,300 / DraftKings: $3,200) – I expect Herrmann to be in the lineup with Chris Iannetta out and facing a righty. And that is no ordinary righty, it is none other than Jered Weaver who has already allowed 14 home runs this season.

1B – Chris Davis (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,600) –Davis has owned opposing pitcher Aaron Sanchez in his career going 8-for-18 with two double, four homers and 10 walks.

2B – Jonathan Schoop (BAL) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $3,900) – Schoop has also hit Sanchez well going 9-for-21 with one homer. Schoop is a reverse-splits hitter with a career .205 ISO versus righties.

SS – Pat Valaika (COL) (FanDuel: $2,600 / DraftKings: $3,600) – I’m not thrilled with the SS options, so I will go cheap with Valaika who has hit three homers (two off righties) in 21 games with the Rockies. He will face rookie right-hander Lisalverto Bonilla who has given up three homers in this first two starts.

3B – Miguel Sano (MIN) (FanDuel: $3,800 / DraftKings: $4,600) – Also strongly considered Jake Lamb in this spot but leaning toward Sano who has a .330 ISO versus righties this season and is 2-for-2 with a triple and a home run off righty Nate Karns.

OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $4,300 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Cruz is always a strong option against a lefty and has a .462 ISO at home versus southpaws this season. He will face left-hander Jose Quintana who Cruz is 7-for-20 with one long ball in his career.

OF – Yasmany Tomas (ARI) (FanDuel: $3,700 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Opposing pitcher Jered Weaver struggles more to right-handed hitters this season with a .418 wOBA allowed and 4.09 HR/9. Tomas is 3-for-6 off Weaver with a double and two homers (one coming earlier this season).

OF – Jayson Werth (WAS) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Werth is the poster boy for BvP tonight with his matchup against R.A. Dickey. Werth is 13-for-27 with three doubles and two homers off Dickey in his career.

Longshot – Lucas Duda (NYM) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Duda is still looking to find is stroke since returning from the DL but with such a cheap price and a career .222 ISO versus righties, I will keep recommending him until he hits (literally).

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Taijuan Walker ($7,600), Hector Santiago ($7,200)
DraftKings – Alex Wood ($9,400), Luis Severino ($8,800), Taijuan Walker ($8,400)

Tuesday, May 16 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Miguel Montero NA NA
1B Anthony Rizzo 1 27.9
2B Rougned Odor 0 15.4
SS Chris Owings 0 15.5
3B Joey Gallo 0 0.0
OF Mike Trout 0 18.2
OF Yasmany Tomas 1 21.7
OF Kyle Schwarber 1 24.9
Longshot Lucas Duda 0 6.2 


Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 9 1 11.1% 7.96
1B 11 3 27.3% 13.26
2B 11 1 9.1% 10.85
SS 11 3 27.3% 18.28
3B 10 1 10.0% 9.10
OF 34 13 38.2% 15.41
Longshot 10 1 10.0% 9.89
Total 96 23 24.0% 13.04

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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