Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/30)

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Hope everyone had a fun, safe Memorial Day weekend. My Friday home run picks did not start the weekend off right as they laid an egg but as I’ve said before I’d rather bounce back and forth between zero home run days and 4-5 home run days than just get two every day when I’m looking for a GPP score. Today’s lineup is for a big 14-game Tuesday night slate and I’m going all out on the hitting side and letting the pitching fall where it may. Bringing the lumber tonight including three players from the game at Coors Field.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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C – Austin Hedges (SD) (FanDuel: $2,400 / DraftKings: $2,600) – Hedges is a good cheap, punt option at catcher who has home potential with eight long balls this season with half of them coming at home off right-handers. He will face righty Eddie Butler who hasn’t given up any homers in three starts this year but gave up plenty when he pitched for the Rockies including 1.31 HR/9 on the road.

1B – Hanley Ramirez (BOS) (FanDuel: $3,300 / DraftKings: $4,200) – Ramirez had a .453 wOBA and .331 ISO versus lefties last season and has hit two homers in 15 career at-bats versus lefty Jose Quintana.

2B – Brian Dozier (MIN) (FanDuel: $4,200 / DraftKings: $4,700) – Dozier has a 10-game hitting streak and will face Mike Fiers who has allowed at least one homer in every start this season while allowing a massive 5.49 HR/9 to righties.

SS – Trevor Story (COL) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $4,500) – Story homered yesterday and a career .368 ISO versus lefties. He will face left-hander Ariel Miranda who has allowed 2.91 HR/9 on the road to righties this season.

3B – Nolan Arenado (COL) (FanDuel: $4,400 / DraftKings: $5,400) – Arenado has a massive .586 wOBA and .529 ISO versus lefties this season.

OF – Nelson Cruz (SEA) (FanDuel: $4,600 / DraftKings: $5,100) – Cruz has a .237 ISO versus lefties this season, gets a favorable park adjustment in Coors Field and faces left-hander Tyler Anderson who has allowed 1.98 HR/9 to righties this season.

OF – JD Martinez (DET) (FanDuel: $3,500 / DraftKings: $5,200) – Martinez homered again yesterday giving him eight long balls in just 17 games this season. He has a career .232 ISO versus lefties and will face a rookie left-hander Eric Skoglund making his first big league start.

OF – Andrew McCutchen (PIT) (FanDuel: $2,900 / DraftKings: $3,200) – McCutchen hit a game-winning homer yesterday and will face lefty Robbie Ray who has allowed 1.31 HR/9 and a 43.2% hard hit rate to righties this season.

Longshot – Chris Young (BOS) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,500) – Young hasn’t homered versus a lefty yet this season but posted a .422 wOBA and .260 ISO versus lefties last season.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Vince Velasquez ($7,400), Dinelson Lamet ($6,000), Tyler Pill ($5,500)
DraftKings – Vince Velasquez ($8,100), Jose Berrios ($7,300), Eddie Butler ($5,400)

Friday, May 26 –  Results

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Salvador Perez 0 0.0
1B Wil Myers 0 0.0
2B Daniel Murphy NA NA
3B Todd Frazier 0 12.2
SS Carlos Correa 0 9.0
OF Nelson Cruz 0 0.0
OF Jose Bautista 0 0.0
OF George Springer 0 6.0
Longshot Jed Lowrie 0 15.5

 

Season Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 11 2 18.2% 8.21
1B 14 4 28.6% 12.20
2B 13 2 15.4% 11.57
SS 12 3 25.0% 17.51
3B 13 2 15.4% 10.11
OF 43 13 30.2% 13.40
Longshot 13 1 7.7% 11.24
Total 119 27 22.7% 12.40

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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2 Comments on "Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (5/30)"

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I\'m a dick
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I\'m a dick

Whopping 1/8 in this prediction. At least the one was good. Of course the others combined barely overcame the one in total fantasy points

Geoff Lambert
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Care to share ur values? I’m looking strictly at $4,500 and under. And if you read the lede, I want as cheap as possible because stacking the high priced players is the way to go. Look at all the winning lineups from the last few days. Who had Zellous as a value play yesterday? She was in the winning lineup at $3,000. I had he and Thornton in my lineups.

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