Swing for the Fences: DFS HR Predictions for FanDuel and DraftKings (6/13)

Introduction

Monday was a solid day with a pair of homers and total of four hitters exceeding 18 FanDuel points. Wednesday brings us a solid 9-game evening slate where there are just a few teams that dominate my home run hitter recommendations for the night.

Prices included for FanDuel and DraftKings to help find where the best value may be and positions are based on FanDuel.

So with that here is who will be swinging for the fences today…

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Lineup

mlb fanduel and draftkings lineup 6/13

C – Gary Sanchez (NYY) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Sanchez is not a lock to be in the starting lineup on Wednesday but if he his look for him to produce. If not then pivot to either Salvador Perez or Tucker Barnhart.

1B – Jose Martinez (STL) (FanDuel: $4,400 / DraftKings: $5,000) – Martinez has five homers over his last six games.

2B – Jedd Gyroko (STL) (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $3,400) – Gyorko homer off Eric Lauer in their earlier meeting this season and has been terrorizing Padres pitching seen leaving the team with a .418 average and nine homers in 16 games.

SS – Didi Gregorius (NYY) (FanDuel: $4,100 / DraftKings: $4,100) – Gregorius hit two homers last night and has a .399 wOBA and .337 ISO at home against righties this season.

3B – Justin Turner (LAD) (FanDuel: $3,200 / DraftKings: $3,700) – Turner posted a .484 wOBA and .324 ISO against lefties last season, while lefty Cole Hamels has served up 16 homers to righties already this season.

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OF – Aaron Judge (NYY) (FanDuel: $4,800 / DraftKings: $5,500) – Judge has a massive .485 wOBA and .430 ISO at home against righties during his career and the wind will be blowing out to left field, not that need really needs it.

OF – Marcell Ozuna (STL) (FanDuel: $3,900 / DraftKings: $4,000) – Ozuna is batting .390 with four home runs and 12 RBI in 11 games and went 2-for-2 with a homer off lefty Eric Lauer earlier this season.

OF – Joey Gallo (TEX) (FanDuel: $3,000 / DraftKings: $3,800) – Gallo has hit 12 of his 17 homers this season off right-handers for a .265 ISO.

Longshot – Maikel Franco (LAD) (FanDuel: $2,500 / DraftKings: $3,300) – Franco is 3-for-7 with a homer off lefty Tyler Anderson in his career but make sure he rejoins the Phillies lineup before considering him.

Cheap Pitching options
FanDuel – Nick Pivetta ($8,000), Sonny Gray ($7,800), Luke Weaver ($6,700)
DraftKings – Luke Weaver ($7,700), Nick Pivetta ($7,500), Sonny Gray ($6,900)

Results – Monday, June 11

Pos Name HR FD Pts
C Buster Posey 0 9.2
1B Jose Martinez 1 31.4
2B Jonathan Schoop 0 0.0
3B Jose Ramirez 0 9.0
SS Javier Baez 0 27.4
OF Michael Brantley 1 18.7
OF David Peralta 0 3.0
OF Andrew McCutchen 0 21.9
Longshot Randal Grichuk 0 6.5

 

Overall Results

Pos Picks HR HR Rate Avg FD Pts
C 24 5 20.8% 8.85
1B 27 2 7.4% 8.98
2B 26 3 11.5% 9.77
SS 26 5 19.2% 12.22
3B 26 8 30.8% 15.95
OF 80 14 17.5% 11.32
Longshot 28 7 25.0% 11.17
Total 237 44 18.6% 11.22

 

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Brad Richter

Growing up, I was always intrigued with stats, from the back of baseball, football and basketball cards to playing dice rolling simulation games, while tracking the stats for the players on my team. My fantasy sports obsession began in college running fantasy football leagues with friends and has expanded into playing in both fantasy baseball and fantasy basketball leagues, and most recently Daily Fantasy Sports. I consider myself a “stats guy” by nature and lean on data to back up my advice and analysis of strategy techniques and player evaluations. That said, I have also always felt that sometimes you must go with a gut instinct based on things you have seen watching players play, even when the numbers don’t back it up. I feel that it is this mix of analysis that leads to the most successful formula when competing in fantasy sports.

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